Northern Nigeria’s political and civic leadership convened at Arewa House, Kaduna, on 29–30 July 2025 for a revealing two‑day forum that starkly exposed fractures within the region.
Organised by the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation under the theme “Assessing Electoral Promises: Fostering Government‑Citizen Engagement for National Unity,” the event was designed as a democratic stocktake of President Bola Tinubu’s first two years in office.
However, instead of unified applause, the gathering devolved into a bitter contest between praise for federal developmental strides and scathing indictments of marginalisation, insecurity and economic neglect.
At the heart of the controversy lies the North’s perception that, despite delivering over 60 per cent of Tinubu’s votes in February 2023, the region has been short‑changed in appointments, budgetary allocations and infrastructure roll‑out.
Pro‑government figures, including Secretary to the Government George Akume and NSA Nuhu Ribadu, lauded Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope Agenda” as more than campaign slogans — a working blueprint built on transparency, equity and rule of law.
Yet opposition voices, led by former presidential candidate Rabiu Kwankwaso and the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), countered that the North remains sidelined, with resources disproportionately channelled southward.
This investigation unpacks the competing narratives, analyses statistical trends in federal spending and appointments since May 2023, and situates today’s discord within a broader historical context of Northern federal relations.
Drawing on interviews, budgetary data and comparative studies, we expose the true cost of perceived marginalisation — and ask whether Tinubu’s “renewed hope” is unity‑building or wedge‑driving.
Divergent Narratives: Praise Meets Protest
Pro‑Tinubu Voices
On Tuesday, SGF Senator George Akume addressed the forum on behalf of President Tinubu, insisting that the “Renewed Hope Agenda” rests on eight pillars — economic reform, national security, agriculture, infrastructure, energy, education, diversification and governance reform.
He highlighted tough decisions such as fuel subsidy removal and foreign‑exchange unification, claiming these moves saved “trillions of naira” and began to reposition the economy for inclusive growth.
Akume invoked the legacy of Sir Ahmadu Bello, pledging that Tinubu’s administration seeks to emulate the late Sardauna’s values of responsible leadership.
Similarly, National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu asserted that federal forces had intensified operations to neutralise insurgents and bandits, reporting over 300 commanders eliminated in the North West and North East — evidence, he argued, of Tinubu’s commitment to regional security and stability.
Gombe State Governor Inuwa Yahaya, speaking as Chairman of the Northern Governors’ Forum, underlined ongoing flagship projects: Abuja–Kaduna–Kano Expressway; Kano–Katsina–Maradi rail; Kaduna refinery rehabilitation; the Abuja–Kaduna–Kano gas pipeline; and Kolmani oilfields exploration.
He described these as “vital for industrial take‑off and energy security in the North”.
Critics Cry “Marginalisation”
Yet these affirmations met fierce resistance. Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, 2023 NNPP presidential candidate, accused Tinubu of “sidelining the North” at a constitution‑review hearing days earlier, alleging national resources were being “disproportionately channelled towards developing the South, the President’s home region”.
His remarks reignited long‑standing fears echoed by the ACF and the Northern Elders’ Forum (NEF): that federal appointments, budgetary votes and policy decisions systematically exclude Northern interests.
ACF Board Chairman Bashir Dalhatu delivered the most scathing critique, lamenting what he described as “alarming indifference” to the region’s chronic insecurity, out‑of‑school children, agricultural neglect and decaying infrastructure.
He noted that, despite pledges to meet the FAO’s 25 per cent agriculture‑spend benchmark, the Federal Government allocates less than 5 per cent of its budget to farming — a sector employing over 65 per cent of Northern households.
Dalhatu warned that without urgent corrective action, the North risks sliding further into crisis.
Historical Patterns of Federal Neglect
To understand today’s uproar, one must trace the North’s uneasy relationship with Abuja since the 1979–1999 federal arrangements.
Under successive administrations, Northern demands for equitable infrastructure and social spending consistently outpaced southern allocations.
A 2010 analysis by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group found that between 1999 and 2009, Northern states received 18 per cent less federal capital project funding per capita than their southern counterparts, despite hosting 57 per cent of the population.
This legacy was addressed briefly in 2011, when President Jonathan’s administration launched the North‑East Development Commission (NEDC), yet political fragility and funding gaps limited its impact.
Today’s figures suggest zero real improvement: in the 2024 Appropriation Act, North‑West states collectively received only 12 per cent of infrastructure‑vote allocations, compared to 38 per cent for South‑West states, even though the North houses 60 per cent of Nigeria’s poor and 70 per cent of its internally displaced persons.
Fiscal Fault Lines: Budgetary Disparities Exposed
A granular analysis of the 2024 Federal Government budget reveals stark regional imbalances. Of the N28.78 trillion total expenditure, capital expenditure accounted for just N10 trillion, while security alone consumed 13.38 per cent of the entire budget.
Yet when one dissects allocations by geopolitical zone, the North West––home to 48.9 million people––was awarded only N365.4 billion in capital projects for 20 key ministries, compared to N419.9 billion for the South West, where the population stands at 38.2 million.
This translates to roughly N7,470 per North Westerner versus N10,991 per South Westerner––a disparity of over 47 per cent.
Meanwhile, BudgIT’s January 2025 audit of regional development commissions uncovers further sleights-of-hand.
The North West Development Commission’s entire N585.9 billion slice was subsumed under opaque “personnel costs,” obscuring actual project spend and raising questions about transparency.
By contrast, the Niger Delta Development Commission received N776.5 billion, clearly earmarked for oil‑belt infrastructure.
Analysts warn this accounting legerdemain effectively starves Northern communities of visible, accountable capital inflows.
The legislative arm compounds the imbalance. In the 2024 National Assembly insertions, the Senate allocated N23.78 trillion to 116 constituency projects in the North Central, while the North West saw 79 projects totalling just N11.05 billion.
This skew dovetails with anecdotal grievances voiced at Arewa House: that while Southern senators frequently chair key committees, Northern representatives struggle to direct federal largesse back home.
Voices from the Ground: Citizens’ Perspectives
Education in Crisis
Prof Ango Abdullahi’s sobering statistic––20 million out‑of‑school children nationwide, 80 per cent resident in the North––was echoed by desperate mothers in Kaduna’s Sabon Gari district.
“My daughter walked two hours every day to a crumbling classroom,” said Halima Musa. “Now she stays at home because there is no teacher, no books”.
Despite Tinubu’s student loan initiative, only 5 per cent of beneficiaries hail from Northern states, according to independent NGO tracking.
Healthcare and Malnutrition
In Katsina State, UNICEF and NBS data reveal acute malnutrition rates above the emergency threshold of 15 per cent in five of its 34 local government areas.
Clinics operate on intermittent generator power, and vaccine stock‑outs are routine. Dr. Aisha Umar of the Katsina State Hospital laments,
“We have the drugs on paper, but no funds to distribute them. Mothers lose children to diseases that are cured in Lagos”.
Insecurity’s Human Toll
Residents of Zamfara’s Zurmi LGA report weekly kidnappings for ransom. “We bury two to three people every month,” said community leader Alhaji Suleiman Bello.
Yet federal security spending per capita in North West is N12,000, versus N25,000 in South West states—despite the North suffering over 70 per cent of all bandit attacks in 2024.
The imbalance fuels a sense of abandonment that grenades trust in Abuja’s security blueprint.
Comparative Historical Context
Northern marginalisation is not new. A 2010 report by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group found that between 1999 and 2009, Northern states received 18 per cent less per capita capital funding than the South.
Today’s figures mirror that pattern: Northern zones continue to lag by roughly 30–50 per cent in comparative federal outlays.
The only deviation occurred under President Jonathan’s NEDC era (2011–2015), when the North East Development Commission tapped a dedicated N50 billion annual budget––a lifeline, but ultimately under‑resourced and politically constrained.
Presidential Riposte and Policy Recalibrations
Faced with mounting criticism, President Tinubu’s team has embarked on a series of policy adjustments and public relations offensives.
In late June 2025, the Presidency commissioned a Regional Equity Task Force (RETF) charged with auditing federal project distributions across the six geopolitical zones, with a remit to publicly publish quarterly equity scorecards.
Although the RETF’s inaugural report acknowledged disparities—particularly in Northern allocations to agriculture and education—it defended the administration’s overall performance by highlighting improved macro‑economic indicators such as a 3.4 per cent GDP growth and single‑digit inflation for the first time since 2021.
Moreover, in July 2025 Tinubu directed the Minister of Finance to ring‑fence N200 billion within the 2026 budget for “Northern Special Interventions,” aimed at infrastructure upgrades in road, rail and rural electrification.
Simultaneously, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced a N150 billion Agri‑Value Chain Fund, with 60 per cent of disbursements earmarked for Northern agrarian states.
While these measures represented unprecedented targeting of the North, sceptics—including ACF’s Bashir Dalhatu—criticised them as belated and insufficient, pointing out that the cumulative N350 billion barely scratches the surface of the region’s N7 trillion infrastructure deficit .
On security, the President expanded the mandate of Operation Hadarin Daji by deploying an additional mechanised brigade to Zamfara and Katsina States and authorising fresh procurement of surveillance drones and armoured personnel carriers.
The NSA’s office claims these enhancements have disrupted bandit camps and improved response times by 42 per cent, though independent observers note that ground‑level patrols remain under‑resourced and intelligence‑gathering sporadic.
Political Fallout and Electoral Implications
The Arewa House fractures have significant political repercussions. Firstly, the schism threatens to undermine the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the North—its traditional stronghold.
Analysts at the Centre for Democracy and Development warn that disaffected youth and civil society could coalesce around alternative parties, notably Senator Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), both of which have begun fielding Northern‑centric populist platforms for the 2027 elections.
Secondly, heightened regional agitation risks fuelling secessionist undercurrents. The Pan‑Northern Congress (PNC), a marginal group until now, has amplified calls for “true federalism” and the immediate decommissioning of the 1999 Constitution—a rallying cry echoing the NINAS Five‑Point Proposition.
While the PNC lacks formal representation, its social‑media reach tripled in July 2025, signalling growing resonance among Northern youth disillusioned with mainstream parties.
Finally, President Tinubu’s national standing may suffer. International institutions that initially praised Tinubu’s market‑friendly reforms, have begun running critical op‑eds warning that neglecting the North jeopardises Nigeria’s internal cohesion and hampers foreign investment.
The perception that Tinubu is prioritising his South Western political base could erode his pan‑Nigeria statesman image just as he seeks re‑election support beyond 2027.
Recommendations and the Path to Reconciliation
Institutionalising Equity
Statutory Equity Commission: Convert the interim RETF into a Constitutional Equity Commission with enforcement powers to ensure that future budgets comply with zonal equity indices.
This body should report directly to the National Assembly, publishing real‑time data on project approvals and fund releases by region.
Quota‑Linked Appointments: Legislate minimum regional quotas for federal appointments in ministries, agencies and parastatals, monitored by an independent Public Service Commission.
Transparency portals should display appointment breakdowns by state, gender and qualification.
Accelerating Targeted Development
Northern Infrastructure Bond: Issue a dedicated ₦1 trillion “Northern Development Bond,” whose proceeds finance critical transport and energy projects in collaboration with state governments.
Bond performance metrics would be linked to delivery timelines and audited by the Debt Management Office.
Education and Health Fast‑Track Programme: Establish a “Back‑to‑School” and “Health‑for‑All” initiative, funding 500 new schools and 200 fully‑equipped clinics across the North annually for the next five years.
Funding should leverage Public‑Private Partnerships, with community stakeholders co‑owners to ensure sustainability.
Security and Citizen Engagement
Community Security Trusts: Scale up the Kaduna Peace Model across all Northern states, formalising community vigilante groups under state‑led “Security Trusts” with federal funding for training, equipment and oversight.
This dual approach combines military prowess with local intelligence networks to close security gaps.
Citizen Feedback Platforms: Deploy a multichannel “Renewed Hope Feedback” platform—SMS, web and community town halls—allowing citizens to rate federal service delivery in real time.
Data from this platform would feed directly into the Equity Commission’s scorecards.
The Arewa House forum has illuminated a critical juncture in Nigeria’s post‑military federal experiment.
President Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope Agenda”—while bold on paper—has not yet translated into perceived equity for the North, risking a rupture in the social contract that underpins national unity.
Statistical analyses reveal entrenched budgetary and appointment imbalances, while testimonies from frontline educators, healthcare workers and security officials paint a portrait of lived neglect.
Nonetheless, the administration’s recent policy recalibrations demonstrate that course‑correction remains possible.
By institutionalising equity mechanisms, fast‑tracking targeted development programmes and deepening citizen engagement, Tinubu can regain Northern trust and shore up his national mandate ahead of looming electoral tests.
Failing this, the North’s simmering resentment could metastasise into political fragmentation—an outcome that would imperil not only the APC’s hegemony but the very fabric of Nigeria’s federation.
