The All Progressives Congress (APC) stands at a crossroads as its National Executive Committee (NEC) convenes on Thursday, 24 July 2025, in Abuja to resolve a leadership vacuum left by the sudden resignation of erstwhile National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje.
Ostensibly prompted by “health reasons,” Ganduje’s departure belies a deeper strategic realignment as stakeholders jostle for influence ahead of the pivotal 2027 general elections.
This report delves into the power dynamics shaping the NEC rendezvous, profiles the leading candidates—Acting Chairman Ali Bukar Dalori, former Nasarawa governor Umaru Tanko Al‑Makura, and Minister Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda—assesses the role of zoning conventions and constitutional mandates, and evaluates the broader implications for party cohesion and Nigeria’s political trajectory.
Contextualising Ganduje’s Exit
Abdullahi Umar Ganduje’s 22‑month tenure as APC National Chairman ended abruptly on 28 June 2025, with official communiqués citing declining health.
Yet, political observers contend that his departure was orchestrated to recalibrate internal power equations and consolidate President Bola Tinubu’s influence over party machinery ahead of the next electoral cycle.
Sceptics within the APC view Ganduje’s narrative of ill health as a convenient pretext for sidelining rival factions and reconfiguring the party’s top hierarchy, according to inside sources.
Under Ganduje’s stewardship, the APC contended with turbulent intra‑party feuds—most notably between southern power brokers and northern heavyweights—while grappling with public disenchantment over security lapses and economic headwinds.
His abrupt exit has ignited speculation of a pre‑emptive move by the Tinubu camp to install a pliant chairperson who would align seamlessly with presidential directives
As sources at the national secretariat confided anonymously, “the final nod rests with President Tinubu,” underscoring the premium placed on executive endorsement in shaping the party’s hierarchy.
Acting National Chairman: Ali Bukar Dalori
Dr Ali Bukar Dalori, born 16 June 1962 in Dalori, Borno State, ascended to the role of Acting National Chairman upon Ganduje’s resignation.
With a background in automotive engineering and a reputation as a coalition builder, Dalori previously chaired the APC’s State Party Chairmen forum, earning plaudits for streamlining grassroots mobilisation.
Insiders note his affinity with the party’s moderate wing and his perceived neutrality amid factional contests.
Several NEC members have expressed support for Dalori’s continuance as acting chair until a comprehensive Elective Convention can be organised, citing his steadiness during transitional periods and the logistical challenges of convening a full‑scale national congress within the stipulated constitutional timeframe.
A senior source remarked, “Dalori has the trust of both governors and grassroots leaders. Advancing him as caretaker ensures continuity without deepening schisms”.
Tanko Al‑Makura’s Ambition and Southern Resistance
Umaru Tanko Al‑Makura, governor of Nasarawa State from 2011 to 2019 and current senator for Nasarawa South, has been touted as the North‑Central region’s champion for the chairmanship slot.
Born November 1952 in Lafia, his two-term gubernatorial record emphasised infrastructural revitalisation and education reforms—credentials he leverages to court undecided NEC delegates.
In a recent interview with Vanguard, Al‑Makura asserted his readiness to “serve President Tinubu in any capacity, including as APC chairman,” a statement interpreted as fealty to the presidency as well as an open declaration of interest.
However, his bid has met resistance from southern APC stakeholders, who warn against a shift in the informal zoning arrangement that has alternated the National Chair between the North-West and South-West since inception.
Critics argue that deviating from the established power‑sharing formula risks disenfranchising key southern constituencies ahead of 2027, potentially triggering defections or muted campaign efforts.
Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda: Technocrat Turned Powerbroker
Professor Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, born 8 August 1968 in Dungung, Plateau State, transitioned from academia and electoral administration (as Benue REC, 2017–2021) to Tinubu’s Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction in October 2024.
His technocratic image and reformist pedigree have attracted endorsements from young progressives seeking a data‑driven approach to party operations.
Yilwatda champions digital membership drives—particularly the e‑registration initiative—framing it as a tool to curb vote‑buying and enhance internal transparency.
Yet detractors question his political clout and regional backing, noting that his ministerial portfolio, while high‑profile, does not translate directly into NEC votes.
A factions analysis suggests that Yilwatda’s strongest support emanates from Plateau elites and civil society actors disillusioned by traditional patronage networks, positioning him as a disruptor rather than consensus candidate.
Constitutional Mandate and Article 13.3
The APC’s amended 2022 Constitution grants the NEC sweeping powers under Article 13.3 to appoint a National Chairman or constitute a Caretaker Committee, subject to a maximum tenure of 12 months.
Specifically, clauses 13.3(i–ii) empower the NEC to discharge functions of a National Convention inter‑sessionally—including summoning conventions and setting agendas—while clauses 13.3(B–C) sanction the establishment of caretaker bodies in “compelling situations warranting overriding interest of the Party”.
Deputy National Secretary Festus Fuanter emphasised this authority when confirming the NEC’s 24 July meeting date, noting that nominations for a substantive chair would be accepted “pending the convention where the final position of the party will be made as far as the substantive chairman is concerned”.
This dual pathway—immediate appointment versus caretaker arrangement—remains at the crux of Monday’s deliberations.
Zoning and Regional Equilibrium
Informal zoning conventions have shaped APC leadership since its formation on 6 February 2013, alternating key offices among Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones to foster inclusivity.
Past chairmen trace this pattern: Bisi Akande (South-West, 2013–2014), John Oyegun (South-South, 2014–2018), Adams Oshiomhole (South-South, 2018–2020), Mai Mala Buni (North-East, 2020–2022), and Abdullahi Adamu (North-Central, 2022–2023), before Ganduje (North-West, 2023–2025).
The North-Central APC Forum, chaired by Saleh Zazzaga, thus demands that the chairmanship return to their zone—citing both historical precedent and the region’s significant electoral contributions, including delivering the third‑highest votes for Tinubu in February 2023.
Conversely, North-West chapters in Kaduna and Zamfara advocate adherence to constitutional democratic norms over zoning alone, underscoring that the “process must follow the constitution’s provisions” and that “whoever emerges must prioritise party progress over regional considerations”.
President Tinubu’s Decisive Role
As APC leader, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s influence permeates the NEC agenda. Reports confirm that key party chieftains briefed him at the Presidential Villa on Monday to secure his directive on “how and when the National Chairman will emerge”.
Tinubu’s attendance at the NEC meeting underscores his personal stake; insiders expect him to leverage his prerogative to sway fringe delegates, ensuring alignment with his 2027 electoral blueprint.
Given Tinubu’s recent push for party discipline—evidenced by his rebuke of dissenting governors over fiscal autonomy disputes—his imprimatur on the chairmanship choice is likely final.
Political strategist Dr Chinwe Okoro notes, “Tinubu views the APC chair as an extension of his presidency. He will not countenance disloyalty or untested loyalty at the helm of the party”.
Lobbying Blitz and Power Brokers
In the run‑up to Abuja, NEC delegates have been subject to intensive lobbying by influential governors, senators, and federal appointees.
Multiple sources reveal clandestine meetings at Abuja’s elite hotels, where campaign dossiers extolling each candidate’s virtues and loyalty to Tinubu’s agenda are circulated.
The Progressives Governors Forum, representing 16 governors, remains split—some advocating continuity under Dalori, others favouring Al‑Makura for his track record in capturing a southwestern‑inspired consensus.
Moreover, emerging power brokers—particularly cabinet ministers and former security chiefs—are reportedly conditioning their support on assurances of strategic portfolio allocations and control over party fundraising mechanisms.
This transactional dimension has heightened concerns over the APC’s capacity to maintain post‑appointment unity.
Stakes for the 2027 Elections
The appointment of a substantive National Chairman is more than a ceremonial act; it shapes the APC’s organisational cohesion heading into the 2027 general elections.
A chair aligned with Tinubu could expedite candidate vetting, fund mobilisation, and grassroots e‑registration efforts, but risks alienating regions feeling short‑changed by the selection process.
Conversely, a compromise caretaker regime under Dalori may preserve intra‑party equilibrium but leave critical structural reforms—such as the overhaul of the E‑registration system and amendment of delegate selection rules—half‑implemented.
Analysts warn that a protracted leadership tussle could erode the APC’s advantage over a resurgent opposition, particularly if public perception frames the process as an elite power play disconnecting from voter concerns over security, economy, and governance.
Comparative Historical Lessons
A review of previous NEC‑driven appointments offers sobering insights. In 2018, the NEC’s elevation of Adams Oshiomhole over popular southern contenders precipitated mass defections and a prolonged leadership crisis culminating in legal battles.
Similarly, Buni’s caretaker tenure (2020–2022) grappled with legitimacy issues as state chapters questioned his authority to suspend and reinstate ward executives.
Both episodes underscore that NEC decisions, while constitutionally sanctioned, can fracture the party if perceived as exclusionary or autocratic.
Potential Outcomes and Scenarios
Scenario A: Dalori as Caretaker Continuator
- Pros: Minimises immediate conflict; ensures procedural compliance.
- Cons: Delays substantive reforms; may embolden regional grumblings.
Scenario B: Al‑Makura Emerges Substantive Chairman
- Pros: Satisfies North-Central claims; leverages gubernatorial experience.
- Cons: Risks southern backlash; sets precedent for zoning over process.
Scenario C: Yilwatda Upsets with Technocratic Mandate
- Pros: Advances modernisation agenda; appeals to youth.
- Cons: Lacks deep party network; polarises traditionalists.
Scenario D: Compromise Dark Horse
- Pros: Introduces fresh unity symbol; circumvents factional rigidity.
- Cons: Potentially lacks calibre or consensus backing.
Each scenario carries trade‑offs influencing the APC’s morale, fundraising, and voter mobilisation strategy ahead of primaries and elections.
Conclusion: A Make‑or‑Break Moment
Thursday’s NEC meeting is aptly described by insiders as “make‑or‑break” for the APC’s fortunes. A decision that balances constitutional fidelity, zoning equity, and executive cohesion will be pivotal to maintaining the party’s iron grip on power and credibility.
Conversely, a perceived imposition could splinter ranks, emboldening opposition alliances and jeopardising the APC’s roadmap to 2027.
As delegates file into the Abuja venue, all eyes will be on President Tinubu’s final word—and whether he steers the APC towards unity or inadvertently ignites its undoing.
