In a dramatic unfolding of politics and ideology, Northern Nigeria’s Fulani elite have launched yet another assault on democratic norms, wielding Sharia threats and secessionist rhetoric to intimidate the central government, according to Dr Austin Orette.
Their latest target: President Bola Tinubu’s tax reform bill, denounced in apocalyptic language before it was even debated. What we’re witnessing are “the last spasms of a dying oligarchy,” as Dr Orette chillingly warns.
But beyond the theatre of threats lies a deeper story of historical privilege, economic decay and ideological extremism.
This investigative report exposes the roots of the Fulani oligarchy’s power, its reliance on military rule and religious fervour, and the peril it poses to national unity.
Historical Foundations of Fulani Privilege
Military Patronage and Unearned Merit
Coup Culture and Spoils of War
From the first military takeover in January 1966 to the 1993 annulment crisis, successive coups entrenched a cadre of Fulani officers in Abuja’s corridors of power. Under Generals Yakubu Gowon, Murtala Mohammed and Ibrahim Babangida, the North reaped disproportionate benefits:
Career Advancement on the back of spoils: Fulani officers secured top commands without regard to merit, while their Hausa foot soldiers served as expendable “hewers of wood and drawers of water.”
Economic Windfalls: State oil revenues and military budgets fuelled private fortunes. Babangida’s regime alone is estimated to have misappropriated over \$12 billion (equivalent to nearly \$24 billion today).
Islamisation via OIC Membership
In 1986, General Babangida unilaterally enrolled Nigeria in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), cementing the fusion of state and religious ideology.
“General Ibrahim Babangida acted swiftly by creating a committee to assess the implication of Nigeria’s membership of the OIC…”
— Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida.
The 1979 Constitution Walkout
During debates on the Second Republic’s 1979 Constitution, Northern delegates demanded the inclusion of Sharia.
Their walkout and subsequent military intervention in 1983–85 underscored their unwillingness to accept constitutional limits.
As Dr Orette notes, they are “lost without military dictatorship that spoon‑feeds…position and merit to them without questions.”
Socio‑Economic Decay in the North
Poverty: A Regional Catastrophe
Multidimensional Poverty
Today, 65 percent of Nigeria’s multidimensionally poor (86 million people) reside in Northern states, despite representing only 40 percent of the population.
Extreme Poverty
Under the \$2.15/day international line, 79.4 percent of the ultra‑poor in 2018/19 hailed from the North, compared with 13.2 percent from the South.
Education: Ignorance as a Political Tool
Literacy Disparities
While Nigeria’s national adult literacy hovers around 62 percent, in the Northwest it plummets to 38 percent for young women, and 42 percent in the Northeast.
Out‑of‑School Children
Over 13 million children in the North are out of school—fuel for extremist recruiters and political demagogues.
Dr Orette charges that the oligarchs “intentionally keep their people ignorant, poor and uneducated…to weep them into religious frenzy.”
Their failure to monetise land and human capital only deepens the region’s backwardness.
The Tinubu Tax Bill Clash
Anatomy of the Bill
President Tinubu’s VAT reform proposes:
- 60 percent distribution based on contribution (state revenue generation)
- 20 percent on population
- 20 percent equally among states
Currently, the split is 50/30/20 (equal/population/contribution). Northern governors argue the change punishes poorer, populous states.
Political Theatre and Threats
Hyperbolic Language
Prominent Northern figures labelled Tinubu “One‑Time President,” threatened “war” and even secession.
Sharia Weaponisation
Within 24 hours, Sharia implementation in Western states re‑entered the national debate—a classic move to shift from policy to primordial identity.
Financial Times reports that “the debate has stalled…opponents argue the reforms will disadvantage the more populous but economically poorer northern states”.
Religious Extremism as Proxy Warfare
The Jihad Narrative
Fulani oligarchs, Orette asserts, revert to “their most potent ammunition—Sharia—to make their foray into the South.” Yet Southern Muslims, more urbanised and educated, reject Sharia imposition.
This ideological divide now serves as a proxy battlefield.
Proxies in Action: From Dawah campaigns to sponsored militia groups, Fulani elites outsource sectarian agendas.
Historical Fractures: The 1965 Kano riots and 2001 Jos crises exemplify cycles of violence stoked by extremist rhetoric.
International Dimensions
As members of the OIC, these oligarchs enjoy diplomatic cover. Ibrahim Babangida once boasted that “if I hear the Yorubas beating the drums of war, I would go back to sleep,” revealing contempt for democratic dissent.
Comparative Lessons and Historical Parallels
Military Dictatorships and Religious Extremism
- Pakistan under Zia-ul-Haq: Islamisation used to legitimise martial law.
- Iran, 1979: Theocratic revolution replacing secular monarchy—yet regional differences altered outcomes.
In Nigeria’s context, the oligarchy is at once reliant on military coercion and religious fervour—an unstable hybrid poised to implode.
Development Models
- South Korea transformed from poverty to prosperity through land reform and education.
- Rwanda prioritised unity over ethnic prejudice, investing heavily in literacy and infrastructure.
Northern Nigeria’s leaders have chosen neither path, fixating instead on identity politics.
The Middle Belt and Southern Resistance
Emerging Coalitions
Middle‑Belt leaders, long vigilant against Fulani‑Hausa hegemony, are mobilising:
- Coalition of Ethnic Groups demanding land rights and local governance reforms.
- Civil Society Networks championing secular education and economic empowerment.
The Emirate Question
Increasingly, Hausa communities themselves question Fulani monopolies:
“Why is every Emir a Fulani? Why every mosque Imam?”
— Anonymous Hausa activist, Jos, July 2025.
Such introspection signals the fracturing of old alliances.
The Final Jihad: What Comes Next?
Dr Orette concludes ominously: “This is their last jihad. The spasms of a dying oligarchy.” Indeed, as Northern Nigeria grapples with:
- Unprecedented food insecurity (31.8 million food‑insecure),
- Humanitarian crises in the Lake Chad basin,
- Global scrutiny on Boko Haram and ISWAP insurgencies,
the oligarchy’s leverage wanes.
Possible Flashpoints
- VAT Reform Vote: A showdown in the National Assembly could spiral into street protests.
- Sharia Referenda: Local pushes for Sharia law in non‑Muslim areas.
- Ethno‑Regional Realignments: Middle‑Belt secessionist talks gain traction.
Conclusion
The “orgy of hatred” Dr Orette describes is no mere rhetorical flourish. It is the death‑rattle of an entrenched elite, birthed by coups, sustained by religious extremism and now confronting irreversible socio‑economic decay.
Their threats against Tinubu’s reform bill are less about fiscal policy and more about existential survival.
Yet, history and contemporary forces favour democratic progress, national unity and inclusive development.
The dying oligarchy’s spasms may be violent, but they are, ultimately, signs of its demise.
