One month into the new US–Israel war against Tehran, the regime is still inflicting damage as if it were an insurgency rather than a defeated army. An AP analysis reports that the US and Israel “find themselves confronting an opponent that fights more like an insurgency than a nation”.
Despite heavy airstrikes, Iran “can still torment its Gulf Arab neighbors and Israel with missiles and drones” and even “maintain a stranglehold on the world’s economy” by threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
AP notes that controlling Hormuz is Tehran’s greatest strategic leverage, a tactic its own Shiite militias have long used under the regime’s tutelage as leaders of the self-described “Axis of Resistance”.
Oil prices have “skyrocketed” and markets plunged from Iran’s chokehold – clear evidence that the mullahs can inflict maximum pain with minimum resources.
In short, the regime’s survival strategy is to keep fighting and to keep the world’s economy in knots – unless the government itself is removed.
Inside Iran, the clerical regime faces deep resentment at home. Mass funerals in Tehran have become grim symbols of this brutal rule.
As the UK Foreign Secretary recently noted, the regime responded to the 2022 women-led protests with “lethal repression of protestors” after the death of Mahsa (Maha) Amini.
AFP images from January 2026 show crowds in Tehran burying victims of that crackdown, underscoring how violently dissent is crushed.
U.S. and Israeli leaders still hope these protests will topple the theocracy, but so far there are “no signs of any such uprising” succeeding.
Instead, Iran’s revolutionary guards recruit children and hardliners tighten their grip, fighting on despite heavy losses. This means the regime remains in full control, with no internal release valve for its nuclear ambitions.
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Abroad, Iranians are openly calling for regime change. Exiled dissidents recently held placards in Geneva denouncing the clerical rulers as “murderers” and displaying photos of Reza Pahlavi, son of the late shah.
One Saudi insider bluntly told Israeli media: “The only solution is to change the regime in Iran one way or another”. Such statements reflect a consensus among Tehran’s foes: half-measures will not work.
A nuclear deal or sanctions alone will not disarm the regime; only uprooting it can remove the fundamentalist network that enables these threats.
The most pressing danger is obvious: Tehran’s nuclear push. Israeli intelligence warned that the regime has now “reached a point of no return in its quest for nuclear bombs”.
Iran has enriched more uranium and built fortified underground facilities, closing the gap to a weapon even as it endures sanctions.
President Trump himself declared on multiple occasions that “Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon”, since Iran is already “the leading sponsor of terrorism” and its nuclear quest “threatens the civilized world”.
Regional analysts agree: if Tehran is not stopped, it will soon have the bomb. In fact, an anonymous Gulf source warned that “if Iran does not produce nuclear weapons within five years, it will do so afterwards”.
The international community fears the worst. The ADL notes that Iran “could even potentially share its nuclear technology and know-how with extremist groups hostile to the West.” Examples include Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Islamist militias already sponsored by Tehran.
That means a nuclear Iran would not be content to keep its weapons for itself – it would spread the threat to its proxies.
Western leaders have issued matching warnings. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu put it bluntly: “We can’t have the world’s most dangerous regime have the world’s most dangerous weapons”.
US officials have echoed this urgency. Washington reviews its options. The reality is clear. If the ayatollahs retain power and technology, extremist terrorists will soon have a nuclear capability.
The UK Foreign Secretary summarised that Iran’s entire policy is “destabilising.” This includes backing Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. It also involves launching missiles at Israel.
No amount of sanctions or diplomacy so far has changed that stance. The clerical regime declares it will survive any conflict; as analyst Shukriya Bradost writes, “The Islamic Republic understands that it cannot defeat the United States militarily… [its] objective is… Survive the war long enough to claim victory”.
History illustrates the point. When tyrants are kept in power, their weapons programmes tend to endure or resurrect. Only regime overthrow has reliably halted them.
After Saddam Hussein fell, Iraq’s new government, with US help, dismantled its Tuwaitha nuclear complex. They removed some 550 tonnes of leftover yellowcake uranium from Saddam’s era.
Muammar Gaddafi similarly abandoned Libya’s clandestine bomb programme in 2003. He made this decision after witnessing Saddam’s fate. President Bush attributed this change to the Iraqi example.
In contrast, Iran’s mullahs have done nothing comparable. Arms control experts note that after 2019, Tehran “invested in new nuclear capabilities.” This investment is bringing the country closer to nuclear weapons.
The message from these cases is unambiguous. Military pressure and diplomacy alone failed to denuclearise these regimes. Only the overthrow of their leadership succeeded.
Given the stakes, in the right view there is no alternative. Iran’s revolutionary leadership is the nexus binding terrorism, missile threats and nuclear ambitions. Every major Western or Gulf security official now signals that only a change of regime can break the cycle.
To prevent fundamentalist terrorists from ever getting their hands on atomic arms, the clerical regime in Tehran must be removed. Anything less will only delay the inevitable nightmare. The world economy, global security and indeed the future of civilisation depend on it.
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