Since the ceasefire with Israel took effect on 24 June 2025, Iran has endured at least nine major explosions and fires at residential, industrial and transport sites—an unprecedented spike in incidents so soon after hostilities ceased.
The regime’s insistence on “gas leaks” rings hollow given the scale and precision of the blasts, which have targeted a military housing complex in Tehran, a residential block in Qom and the Abadan oil refinery, among others.
Residents of Qom reported that the first‑floor explosion there physically displaced multiple floors and injured seven people—an intensity at odds with the modest quantities of gas the regime claims were involved.
Similar scepticism surrounds the plume of smoke seen over Mashhad International Airport on 13 July, officially chalked up to “controlled burning of weeds,” even as local witnesses noted flickering flames near the runway for consecutive nights.
The Abadan Oil Refinery Inferno
On 19 July, a fire erupted at Iran’s critical Abadan oil refinery, claiming at least one worker’s life before containment crews quelled the blaze.
State media reported a “leaky pump under repair” as the culprit, yet refinery experts argue that a malfunction of that type would not ignite an inferno substantial enough to breach multiple storage units.
The refinery’s strategic importance—supplying roughly 20% of Iran’s refined fuel output—only heightens suspicions that the fire was no mere accident.
Tehran’s “Halo Effect” Defence
In a rare psychological analysis, Fars News Agency attributed public alarm to the “halo effect”, whereby high‑impact events (like war) colour perceptions of everyday mishaps.
“A major event (such as a conflict with Israel) casts such a shadow over our minds that we associate every small incident with it,” the report explained.
Yet experts note that the uniformity of explanations—gas leaks, equipment failure, burning weeds—across disparate sites strains credibility, suggesting a coordinated effort rather than random failures.
Whispers of Mossad’s Covert Campaign
Three unnamed Iranian officials, including an IRGC insider, told The New York Times they believe these incidents are deliberate acts of sabotage, implicating Israeli intelligence in a shadow war deep inside Iran’s borders.
An unnamed European diplomat shared similar suspicions, though no hard evidence has been made public. Meanwhile, the X account Mossad In Farsi cheekily remarked on 12 July:
“Explosion after explosion. Someone needs to check what’s going on there. Too many random incidents are happening.”
Historical Precedents: Sabotage as Strategy
This campaign would not be unprecedented. Israel and its allies have previously targeted Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure with Stuxnet (2010) and the 2021 Natanz blast, both striking at sensitive sites under the cloak of deniability.
In June 2025, U.S. bunker‑busting strikes on Fordow and Natanz — Operation Midnight Hammer — wrought significant damage to Iran’s enrichment capacity, demonstrating the potency of covert and overt tactics combined.
Statistical Snapshot: Accident or Attack?
| Incident | Date | Official Cause | Casualties | Strategic Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tehran military housing complex | Early July | Gas leak | 0 | IRGC officer residences |
| Qom residential block | 8 July | Gas leak | 7 injured | Judicial organisation HQ |
| Mashhad Airport outskirts | 13 July | Controlled burning | 0 | International gateway |
| Mashhad fires (multiple sites) | 14–15 July | Unexplained fires | 0 | Civil infrastructure |
| Abadan oil refinery | 19 July | Leaky pump | 1 killed | 20% of fuel output |
The table underscores the consistent targeting of assets with high operational or symbolic value—unlikely to be the result of random mechanical failures.
Tehran’s Internal Crackdown
In the wake of the ceasefire, Iran has launched a sweeping counter‑intelligence operation, arresting over 700 alleged Israeli agents and executing at least six convicted “spies,” according to official figures.
This domestic purge signals regime paranoia, as authorities scramble to pin blame on internal saboteurs rather than admit foreign infiltration.
Expert Analysis: A Lose‑Lose Dilemma
Janatan Sayeh of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies captures Tehran’s predicament:
“It’s either not Israel and the regime is incapable and incompetent when it comes to building infrastructure, or it is Israel and the regime doesn’t have the momentum or perhaps the power or will to call out Israel for its attack.”
Accusation risks reigniting open warfare; denial erodes domestic credibility. Either way, the regime stands exposed.
Mossad’s Unabashed Doctrine
Mossad Director David Barnea recently reaffirmed Israel’s posture:
“We are committed to continuing to act resolutely to prevent a future threat from Iran to Israel and to strive to maximise the strategic opportunities before us.”
Such statements—publicly delivered—underscore that, for Jerusalem, the shadow war extends far beyond ceasefires.
The IRGC’s Fraying Trust
Analysts warn the blasts may deepen paranoia within the IRGC, pitting commanders against each other in a desperate hunt for traitors.
Sayeh observes:
“Everybody thinks their counterpart or boss might be a Mossad agent.” .
As mistrust grows, Iran’s once‑tightly knitted security apparatus risks implosion from within.
A Precarious Calm
One month after the ceasefire, Iran’s streets are anything but calm. From Tehran’s elite quarters to the nation’s lifeblood refineries, mysterious blasts have shattered both walls and certainty.
Whether the strikes are the handiwork of Israel’s covert services or the result of endemic incompetence, Tehran’s denials ring increasingly hollow.
In this high‑stakes game of shadows, the blasts themselves may prove as lethal as any missile—eroding trust, morale and, ultimately, the very bedrock of the regime’s authority.
