Lagos State’s local government elections held on Saturday have ignited a fierce controversy, pitting the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) against a coalition of opposition parties that insist the exercise was marred by irregularities so blatant they amounted to “daylight robbery.”
While the APC’s publicity secretary, Seye Oladejo, confidently predicted a clean sweep of all 57 chairmanship and 375 councillorship seats, the Labour Party (LP), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) have mounted a scathing counter‑narrative, accusing the Lagos State Independent Electoral Commission (LASIEC) of orchestrated voter suppression, ballot‑box stuffing and logistical chaos.
As the political temperature surges, this report investigates the depth of these claims, contextualises them against historical turnout statistics, and examines whether Lagos’s vaunted reputation as Nigeria’s democratic vanguard is at risk of unravelling at the grassroots.
Historical Context: Turnout, Trust and Turbulence
Voter turnout in Lagos’s previous local council elections has hovered at modest levels—just 35.6% in the 2019 gubernatorial exercise and approximately 32% for the 2023 local government poll, often attributed to apathy and distrust in state election bodies.
Yet this weekend’s turnout plunged even lower, with observers estimating it at barely 20% in many LCDAs, signalling not only logistical shortfalls but a deeper malaise in urban political engagement.
A comparative glance at the 2023 governorship election—won by Governor Sanwo‑Olu with roughly 762,000 votes (66% share) against two major challengers—reveals that local government contests typically generate a fraction of the interest seen in state or presidential ballots.
Nonetheless, the claims of wholesale voter disenfranchisement this time represent an unprecedented assault on Lagos’s electoral fabric.
Allegations of Irregularities: Voices from the Opposition
Labour Party: “A Complete Sham”
Sam Okpala, Secretary of the Labour Party in Lagos State, decried the exercise as “unprecedented malpractice,” alleging that in numerous polling units LASIEC officials were either absent or complicit in ballot‑box stuffing with pre‑thumb‑printed ballots provided by APC hierarchs.
Okpala asserted, “As far as the Labour Party in Lagos is concerned, there was no election today. The level of malpractices we witnessed is unprecedented in Nigerian electoral history”.
He further noted that LP agents were barred from several units, and that many genuine voters were turned away despite having valid accreditation slips.
PDP: Predicting an Implausible Vote Surge
Tai Benedict, Deputy Chairman of the PDP in Lagos, warned that the APC would improbably record more votes than President Tinubu’s own 2023 tally in the state—an outcome he described as “mathematically preposterous” but entirely predictable given the ruling party’s tactics.
“We won’t be surprised if the APC’s final vote exceeds Tinubu’s 2023 score here. They will manufacture any number they need to claim legitimacy,” he lamented.
SDP: Excluded from the Ballot
Femi Olaniyi, SDP State Chairman, went further by charging LASIEC with deliberately omitting his party’s name and logo from ballot papers in many areas—effectively disenfranchising both candidates and voters.
He branded it “selection, not election,” and pledged legal action, declaring, “We are going to challenge this daylight robbery in every court of jurisdiction”.
Former Deputy Governor’s Rebuke: Bucknor‑Akele’s Call
Senator Kofoworola Bucknor‑Akele, who served as Lagos State Deputy Governor from 1999 to 2003, added her voice, citing personal disenfranchisement when her name failed to appear on the voter register and polling units were inexplicably relocated.
“I have been to my own unit; my name is not there. This is part of a larger rigging plan,” she told Nigeria Info, urging LASIEC to annul the entire exercise.
Her intervention carries particular weight, given her historic role in Lagos’s political evolution and the credibility she retains among pro‑democracy advocates across Nigeria.
APC’s Unshakable Confidence and Historical Dominance
Seye Oladejo, the APC’s State Publicity Secretary, struck an emphatic tone at Agege:
“There is no doubt about APC’s victory, but the question is how massive the voting is. This local government election is a preparation for the 2027 election. So, we are confident that we will win all 57 local governments because the APC is the party of choice”.
This swagger draws upon nearly three decades of uninterrupted control. Since democratic rule resumed in 1999, Lagos has been governed by parties—AD, AC, ACN—that ultimately merged into today’s APC coalition.
That lineage has delivered successive landslide victories at state and federal levels, embedding the party’s machinery deep into the metropolis’s political DNA.
Yet, the interplay between overwhelming party strength and allegations of malpractice raises a critical question: does dominance in Lagos politics spring from genuine popular consent, or from a carefully maintained structural advantage?
Logistical Chaos: Late Starts, Missing Officials, and Voter Frustration
Despite LASIEC’s pronouncement that accreditation would begin promptly at 08:00 a.m., our correspondents’ visits to Ikosi‑Isheri LCDA, Eti‑Osa, Ikoyi/Obalende, Iba LCDA, Agboyi‑Ketu and Ojodu LCDA painted a different picture: voting did not commence until well after 10:00 a.m. due to late arrival of materials and officials.
In several units, presiding officers and polling equipment were nowhere to be found by 09:00 a.m., forcing voters to idle under scorching sun for hours.
At Ikoyi’s Awolowo Road PU 29, only a lone party agent waited while officials remained stranded at the LG secretariat.
Similar scenes prevailed at Iba LCDA PUs 012, 014, 033 and 044, where both voters and agents stood idle until materials arrived close to midday.
These logistical lapses echo concerns raised by Lagos civil‑society groups, who warn that recurrent sorting errors, fuel shortages and deployment misdirections undermine citizens’ confidence in grassroots democracy—a phenomenon BusinessDay calls a “danger of apathy and a nation in need of electoral revival”.
Voter Apathy and the Economics of Inducement
Despite a public appeal by Governor Sanwo‑Olu urging robust turnout, many polling units remained deserted.
In Obalende, youths were found playing football in the streets while security personnel dismantled makeshift goalposts.
Across Kosofe LG, APC agent Alli Olugbenga reported voters demanding cash before casting ballots:
“They want me to pay them before they vote. It’s wrong. Voting is a civic right, not a commodity.”
Such vote‑buying attempts prompted EFCC intervention.
Indeed, the EFCC’s Lagos Zonal Director, Michael Nzekwe, personally led operatives to monitor hotspots from Banana Island to Ajah, underscoring the Commission’s resolve to “promote transparency, accountability and institutional vigilance in Nigeria’s electoral processes”.
Their visible presence served as a deterrent, yet also spotlighted the gravitas of alleged financial crimes at the very foundation of civic choice.
Official Endorsements: Sanwo‑Olu and Co. Praise the Process
True to form, senior APC figures celebrated the exercise as largely successful once the ballots were cast:
“Despite a few logistical hiccups, LASIEC put forth its best effort to conduct the election,” Governor Babajide Sanwo‑Olu stated after voting at St. Stephen Primary School, Lagos Island.
— Babajide Sanwo‑Olu“Local government autonomy is being perfected; in time, we will achieve full autonomy,” said Femi Gbajabiamila, Chief of Staff to the President, following his vote at Surulere’s Elizabeth Fowler Memorial Primary School.
Speaker Mudashiru Obasa characterised the process as “peaceful and without disruption,” while Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat expressed optimism that the APC’s grassroots performance would translate into a resounding mandate.
But these endorsements stand in stark contrast to the opposition’s contention of wholesale disenfranchisement, setting the stage for a bitter contestation of the official results.
Implications for 2027 and Beyond
With the 2027 general elections looming, the outcome—and perceived legitimacy—of these Lagos LG polls carry outsized significance:
Grassroots Mobilisation: A clean sweep would reinforce the APC’s organisational supremacy, granting it an unparalleled ground‑game advantage for national contests.
Judicial Battles: Opposition legal challenges, particularly the SDP’s vow to litigate “daylight robbery,” may tie up results and erode public trust in electoral bodies.
Civil‑Society Vigilance: The EFCC’s proactive role could herald greater collaboration between anti‑corruption agencies and election commissions—if truly independent rather than politically steered.
Long‑term Participation: Persistent apathy and logistical frustrations risk alienating a generation of urban voters, diminishing the democratic legitimacy of local governance.
As the commission prepares to announce official results, Lagosians will judge whether this election marks another triumphant chapter in the APC’s dominance—or a watershed moment exposing the fragility of Nigeria’s electoral apparatus.
Judicial Prospects: Courts as the Final Arbiter
Nigeria’s judiciary has increasingly become the battleground for electoral disputes, and the verdicts from Lagos’s local government elections are unlikely to buck this trend.
Under the Electoral Act 2022, aggrieved parties must file petitions within 21 days of result publication; hearings must conclude within 150 days, with appeals heard expeditiously by the Court of Appeal and, ultimately, the Supreme Court.
Precedents of Election Annulments
Bayelsa 2019 Governorship: In a landmark decision on 14 February 2020, the Supreme Court annulled the election of APC’s David Lyon due to irregularities in his running mate’s nomination, elevating the PDP’s Douye Diri to the governorship.
Imo 2019 Governorship: Similarly, hundreds of thousands of votes were excluded in the March 2019 poll; the Supreme Court overturned the initial result, installing APC’s Hope Uzodinma despite his fourth‑place finish, citing lawful votes cast.
These cases underscore that Nigerian courts are prepared to nullify polls on grounds of procedural failure or malpractice.
Should the SDP, LP or PDP present credible evidence of ballot‑box stuffing, disenfranchisement or omitted party names, there is a tangible chance the Lagos poll results could be set aside.
Legal experts caution, however, that provincial election petitions often face delays and high costs, with only a fraction of cases resulting in verdicts that alter outcomes.
Comparative Case Studies: Lessons from Other States
Delta State Local Elections, 2021
The Delta State local government elections of March 6 2021 saw the PDP sweep all 25 chairmanship and 500 councillorship seats amidst an APC boycott over alleged irregularities—prompting civil‑society demands for INEC‑style reforms.
The absence of opposition rendered the contest a de facto coronation, eroding public trust and spurring calls for inter‑agency collaboration to bolster election credibility.
Edo State by‑elections, 2024
Edo’s tightly contested by‑elections in two LGAs—Etsako West and Ikpoba‑Okha—were lauded for transparent card‑reader accreditation and real‑time result uploads, resulting in a 65% turnout and minimal litigation.
Observers credit INEC’s robust logistics and voter education, suggesting LASIEC’s shortcomings in Lagos could be mitigated by adopting similar measures.
Police‑Monitored Polls in Kano, 2023
In Kano’s 2023 local council polls, heavy deployment of police and civil‑defence volunteers contributed to a relatively peaceful exercise, yet also deterred elderly and wheelchair‑bound voters fearful of physical searches—illustrating the delicate balance between security and accessibility.
These comparisons highlight three transferable lessons for Lagos: (1) rigorous pre‑election voter education to minimise apathy; (2) adoption of electronic accreditation to forestall ballot‑box stuffing; and (3) strategic security deployment that protects rather than intimidates voters.
Statistical Projections and Scenarios
Drawing on data from LASIEC and the Electoral College Nigeria report, we model three potential trajectories for Lagos’s local government elections:
| Scenario | Turnout (%) | APC Vote Share (%) | Opposition Seats Won | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Status Quo | 20–25 | 85–90 | 0–2 | High (60%) |
| Legal Reprieve | 20–25* | N/A (annulled) | TBD (rerun) | Medium (25%) |
| Reformed Process | 35–40 | 60–65 | 20–30 | Low (15%) |
*Assumes existing results hold; subsequent reruns would reset vote shares.
Status Quo: Barring successful legal challenges, APC is projected to claim 100% of chairmanship seats and nearly all councillorship slots, perpetuating the party’s hegemonic grip.
Legal Reprieve: Courts may annul results in select LCDAs where evidence is strongest—particularly units cited by LP and SDP—mandating reruns that could adjust the political calculus ahead of 2027.
Reformed Process: Should LASIEC adopt INEC‑style accreditation and robust observer protocols, voter confidence and participation could surge, enabling opposition parties to secure meaningful representation.
These scenarios reveal that, while the APC’s structural advantage is formidable, institutional reforms and judicial activism remain potent counterweights.
Final Verdict: The Crossroads of Reform and Hegemony
Lagos stands at a critical juncture. The local government elections—which ought to embody the principle of inclusive grassroots democracy—have instead exposed systemic vulnerabilities: from logistical fiascos to potential judicial overhaul.
The APC’s triumphant narrative risks further eroding public faith if allegations are left unaddressed, while hasty reforms without thorough stakeholder buy‑in could prove superficial.
Key Takeaways:
Judicial Oversight: A credible petition process, backed by meticulous evidence, is the most immediate check on electoral malpractice.
Institutional Reform: LASIEC must embrace technology, transparent deployment and stakeholder engagement to restore its battered credibility.
Civil‑Society Engagement: Enhanced monitoring by bodies such as the Electoral College Nigeria and EFCC should be institutionalised to deter future infractions.
Opposition Strategy: LP, PDP and SDP should coordinate legal and public‑relations campaigns to transform court victories into sustained grassroots momentum.
As Lagos prepares for the 2027 general elections, the lessons gleaned from this tumultuous exercise will indelibly shape Nigeria’s democratic trajectory.
Whether the atate’s political establishment chooses to fortify its institutions or double down on dominance will signal the true measure of its commitment to the will of the people.
Atlantic Post writers Taiwo Adebowale, Osaigbovo Okungbowa, Peter Jene & Omonigho Macaulay contributed to this report.
