Nigeria’s headline inflation eases to 23.71%, yet Abuja and ten states endure searing price rises above 30%, deepening economic distress for millions.
Part I: Mirage of Disinflation and National Realities
Introduction: Statistical Soothing, Real Scorch
Nigeria’s economic heartbeat faltered again in April 2025, as the National Bureau of Statistics reported a “moderate” dip in headline inflation to 23.71% year-on-year, down from 24.23% in March and a far cry from 33.69% a year earlier. Yet, this national figure amounts to little more than a statistical salve: in Abuja and ten states, the cost-of-living crisis rages on, with inflation rates vaulting above 30%, and in some cases, breaching the mid-30s.
The gulf between these regional “hotspots” and the so-called “average Nigerian” exposes the limitations of headline metrics—and underscores the harsh reality that for millions, prices continue their relentless ascent.
This two-part investigation will dissect the contours of Nigeria’s inflation, interrogate the policy arsenal deployed by the Central Bank and government, give voice to embattled households and businesses, and chart a forward-looking roadmap to quell the inflation inferno before it spreads nationwide.
The National CPI Report: Context and Caveats
Core Numbers and Methodological Shifts
CPI Index Level: Rose to 119.52 in April 2025, a 1.86% month-on-month increase—a sharp deceleration from March’s 3.90% pace.
Year-on-Year Change: Declined by 0.52 percentage points from March’s 24.23%, landing at 23.71%. This is nearly 10 points lower than April 2024’s 33.69%, but a significant portion of this “gain” stems from the rebasing of the consumer basket and adjustments to weights across goods and services categories.
Food vs Core vs Services:
- Food inflation eased markedly to 21.26% (from 40.53% in April 2024), yet the 12-month average remains at 31.43%.
- Core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy) moderated to 23.39%, down from 26.84%.
- Services inflation slowed to 2.20% month-on-month (from 3.44%).
These figures, though superficially encouraging, mask entrenched price pressures. The NBS’s methodological overhaul—while a welcome modernisation—means that part of the decline reflects statistical rebasing rather than genuine relief in markets.
Urban vs Rural: Diverging Pressures
- Urban inflation: 24.29% year-on-year, with a 1.18% month-on-month rise (versus 3.96% in March).
- Rural inflation: 22.83% year-on-year, with a 3.56% monthly uptick (versus 3.73%).
Urban households—already juggling rent, transportation, and utility costs—face a slower deceleration than their rural counterparts, yet absolute levels remain unsustainably high for both cohorts.
Regional Deep Dive: Mapping the Inferno
Despite national moderation, the following states (plus the FCT) recorded all-items inflation above 30% in April 2025: Enugu, Kebbi, Niger, Benue, Ekiti, Nassarawa, Zamfara, Delta, Gombe, Sokoto and Abuja.
Each tells a unique story of supply-side shocks, security challenges, or local governance failures that compound the broader economic malaise.
Enugu: Capital of Costliness
- All-Items Inflation: 36.0% (highest nationwide).
- Monthly Surge: 12.3% increase in April alone.
- Food Component: 24.4% year-on-year; 3.9% month-on-month.
Drivers:
- Transport Hurdles: Poor rural roads inflate haulage costs for foodstuffs destined for Enugu markets.
- Market Fragmentation: Multiple layers of middlemen in the supply chain gouge end-consumers.
- Utility Costs: Frequent power outages force reliance on diesel generators, raising operating costs for traders and small manufacturers.
Kebbi: Agricultural Heartland Under Strain
- All-Items: 35.1%, up 5.4% month-on-month.
- Food Inflation: 33.8%, rising 4.3%.
Drivers:
- Currency Volatility: Scarcity of foreign exchange inflates import costs for agro-inputs (fertiliser, machinery).
- Insecurity: Banditry disrupts harvest and transport, shrinking volumes and inflating prices.
- Storage Deficits: Lack of adequate silos leads to post-harvest loss, reducing supply during lean seasons.
Niger State: Monthly Cataclysm
- All-Items: 34.8%, with a staggering 14.7% month-on-month jump—the largest nationwide.
- Food Inflation: 24.3%, up 5.7%.
Drivers:
- Fuel Scarcity: Chronic petrol shortages push transport costs to record highs, feeding directly into consumer prices.
- Cross-Border Trade Flows: Disruptions at the Niger Republic border have reduced food imports into border towns, tightening local markets.
Benue: Food Basket Frenzy
- All-Items: 34.3%, up 12.8% month-on-month.
- Food Inflation: 51.8%, surging 25.6% in just one month.
Drivers:
- Insecurity: Persistent invasion of communities by killer herdsmen have displaced farmers, shrunk harvests, and jacked up staple prices.
- Supply-Chain Collapse: Blocked roads and destroyed markets force traders into circuitous, expensive routes.
Part II: From Regional Flashpoints to Policy Prescription
Ekiti: Consumer Costs Erupt
All-Items Inflation: 34.0% (year-on-year)
Monthly Rise: 11.0%
Food Inflation: 34.0%, with a 16.7% month-on-month spike
Local Drivers:
Market Fragmentation: Ekiti’s hilly terrain and poor feeder roads force produce through convoluted routes, each toll pushing prices higher.
Electricity Woes: Frequent grid collapse compels reliance on high-cost generators, inflating input costs for bakeries, poultry farms and cold-storage facilities.
Subsidy Pass-Through: Although petrol subsidies were formally removed in 2023, disparate local enforcement has led to semi-regulated sales—fuel sold above official pump prices directly adds to logistics costs.
Nassarawa: Beyond the Plateau
All-Items Inflation: 33.3%
Monthly Surge: 16.0%
Food Inflation: 23.3%, up 7.4%
Local Drivers:
Transit Hub Premiums: As a conduit between Abuja and the North, Nassarawa sees price “arbitrage” where transporters levy surcharge fees, driving up food and non-food costs.
Agricultural Disruption: Land disputes and communal tensions have constrained planting seasons, reducing supply of staples like millet and sorghum.
Zamfara: Entangled by Insecurity
All-Items Inflation: 33.2%
Monthly Rise: 4.6%
Food Inflation: 24.0%, a modest 0.4% month-on-month upturn
Local Drivers:
Banditry Blockades: Road ambushes force traders off primary highways onto longer side roads, adding fuel and time costs to every journey.
Market Closures: Sporadic curfews and market shutdowns trigger sudden scarcities, causing price “jolts” even when monthly averages seem lower.
Abuja (FCT): Capital Contradictions
All-Items Inflation: 32.9%
Monthly Increase: 9.8%
Food Inflation: 22.2%, a rare 0.7% month-on-month decline
Local Drivers:
Urban Premium: As Nigeria’s administrative epicentre, Abuja commands higher prices for housing, services and imported staples.
Supply Chain Spillover: Border closures in neighbouring states ripple into the capital, tightening wholesale markets even as food prices show slight stabilisation.
Delta: Beyond the Oil Bubble
All-Items Inflation: 31.9%
Monthly Hike: 10.7%
Food Inflation: 15.9%, up 2.2%
Local Drivers:
Non-Food Drivers: Sharp increases in rent, utilities and transport—categories often overlooked in media focus on food costs.
Oil Sector Disconnect: Despite Delta’s crude royalties, leakages in revenue sharing and local contracts have failed to translate into lower energy prices or infrastructure improvements.
Gombe: Cumulative Pressures
All-Items Inflation: 31.0%
Monthly Upturn: 9.0%
Food Inflation: 26.4%, with a 5.8% monthly rise
Local Drivers:
Logistics Squeeze: Long hauls from Maiduguri and Kano inflate costs for grains and pulses.
Border Effects: Cross-border trade with the Republic of Cameroon has been intermittently disrupted, shrinking supply pipelines.
Sokoto: Volatility Personified
All-Items Inflation: 30.5%
Monthly Leap: 16.3% (one of the highest MoM jumps)
Food Inflation: 25.3%, up 13.1%
Local Drivers:
Forex Insecurity: Acute naira scarcity in local bureaux-de-change inflates the cost of imported commodities, even basic cooking oil and rice.
Market Fragmentation: With multiple unregulated wholesale markets, price gouging has become commonplace.
Human Stories: The Faces Behind the Figures
From Market Stalls to Family Tables
Mama Nkechi, a vegetable trader in Enugu’s Ogbete Market, shares how a ₦500 daily profit evaporates when transport costs double. “Some days I sell only enough to cover petrol for the generator,” she laments, highlighting the generator-fuel nexus inflating all goods.
Mr. Yusuf, a Kano-based poultry farmer supplying Abuja hotels, notes feed prices have doubled in six months, forcing him to cull stock early and sell at cut-rate prices—eroding margins and threatening farm viability.
MSMEs: Calling in the Knock-Downs
Babatunde, owner of a Lagos microbrewery, confesses to laying off two-thirds of his workforce. “Without cheaper loans or tax breaks, I cannot buy enough sorghum to brew,” he explains.
Aisha, a Kaduna tailor, describes her dwindling orders as customers prioritise staple foods over bespoke dresses. “My monthly takings have halved; I survived the pandemic only to be felled by inflation.”
Policy Under Scrutiny: Monetary, Fiscal and Structural Axes
Monetary Policy: Tightrope Walking
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s MPC has held the MPR at 18.75% since late 2024, prioritising inflation anchoring over growth stimulus. However, with headline inflation still above 20%, and localised spikes above 30%, calls grow for either:
Further Tightening to signal resolve and curb monetary expansion risks; or
Targeted Easing—such as sector-specific credit windows—to shield SMEs without stoking generalised price growth.
Fiscal Measures: Band-Aid or Cure?
The Federal Government has announced:
Conditional Cash Transfers to 5 million vulnerable households;
Agricultural Input Subsidies for rice, maize and fertiliser;
State-Matching Grants for market infrastructure.
Yet implementation lags, and budgetary allocations risk diversion through corruption and bureaucratic delay.
Structural Reforms: The Long Game
Agricultural Productivity:
- Fast-track mass mechanisation programmes with PPP models to replace ageing equipment;
- Invest ₦200 billion in rural feeder roads to slash haulage costs.
Energy Stability:
- Guarantee gas supply to power plants via ring-fenced export revenues;
- Incentivise CNG conversion through tax credits, reducing urban transport costs.
Supply-Chain Integration:
- Build 50 new silos in agro-production zones to minimise post-harvest losses;
- Digitalise commodity trading platforms to eliminate middlemen layers.
Competition & Governance:
- Empower the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission to sanction price-fixing;
- Enhance transparency in state fuel allocations to curb parallel market premiums.
International Insights: World Bank, IMF & AfDB Forecasts
- World Bank: Projects 22.1% average inflation in 2025, contingent on sustained monetary discipline and subsidy reforms.
- IMF: In its April 2025 Regional Outlook, warns that exchange-rate misalignment could trigger “inflation relapse” if naira-dollar spreads exceed 10%.
- African Development Bank: Stresses the need for expanding regional trade corridors to leverage comparative agricultural advantages and dampen local price spikes.
Scenario Planning: Risks and Roadmaps
| Scenario | Conditions | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Best-Case | Full implementation of cash transfers + PPP roads | Inflation falls below 20% by Q4 2025; consumer confidence rebounds. |
| Baseline | Partial policy uptake; continued tight monetary stance | Gradual disinflation to ~22% by year-end; hotspots persist. |
| Worst-Case | Policy paralysis; renewed exchange-rate stress | Inflation rebounds to 30% by Q1 2026; social unrest spikes. |
Conclusion & Call to Action
Nigeria stands at an inflection point. Statistical dips in headline inflation offer ephemeral comfort but do little to quell the inferno raging in Abuja and ten states.
To transform headline moderation into tangible relief, Nigeria’s leaders must:
Coordinate Rapid-Response Taskforces in inflation hotspots, deploying targeted subsidies and security reinforcements.
Accelerate PPP-Driven Infrastructure to slash transport and post-harvest costs.
Strengthen Governance through transparent allocation of fiscal transfers and corruption clamp-downs.
Deepen Financial Inclusion by expanding low-cost credit windows for MSMEs and smallholder farmers.
Time is of the essence. As inflation continues to erode livelihoods, the risk of social unrest and economic stagnation looms large.
Unless policy firepower is marshalled with urgency and precision, millions more Nigerians will find themselves ensnared in a cycle of price shocks and insecurity—where no statistical rebasing can rescue them from real-world hardship.
- Additional reports from Taiwo Adebowale, Peter Jene, Osaigbovo Okungbowa, Kalada Jumbo, Suleiman Adamu and Omonigho Macaulay
