By Editor
In what some are calling one of the most contentious gubernatorial races in Edo State’s recent history, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Thursday officially issued certificates of return to the newly elected Governor of Edo State, Monday Okpebholo, and his Deputy, Dennis Idahosa. This crucial move by the electoral body has confirmed the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the new ruling party in the state, with Okpebholo poised to succeed outgoing Governor Godwin Obaseki on November 11, 2024. As expected, the issuance of these certificates comes as a green light for Okpebholo’s assumption of office, but the ramifications of this election go far beyond a simple transition of power from one party to another.
This article will take a deep dive into the Edo State election, the figures who defined it, the controversies that marred it, and the political implications it carries for Nigeria’s fragile democratic structure.
The Certificates of Return: A Momentous Milestone or Political Formality?
Certificates of return are an essential part of Nigeria’s electoral process, marking the official confirmation of an election winner. However, in this particular case, their issuance to Monday Okpebholo and Dennis Idahosa does more than just fulfill a bureaucratic requirement. It symbolizes the end of Governor Obaseki’s turbulent reign and the ushering in of what many hope will be a fresh start for Edo State under Okpebholo’s leadership. The ceremony, presided over by INEC’s National Commissioner in charge of Edo State, Rhoda Gumus, five days after the election results were announced, was an eventful spectacle watched by citizens and political stakeholders across the nation.
But is the issuance of these certificates really a sign of triumph for the people of Edo, or just another symbolic victory for the ever-powerful political machine that is the All Progressives Congress? Critics of the election are quick to point out that this race was not as straightforward as it seems.
The Election in Numbers: Tensions and Triumphs
Monday Okpebholo’s victory was heralded as a success for the APC, but the narrowness of his win paints a more complex picture of the political climate in Edo. Okpebholo garnered 291,667 votes, securing 11 out of the state’s 18 Local Government Areas (LGAs). His closest rival, Asue Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was hot on his heels with 247,274 votes and seven LGAs under his belt. Labour Party’s candidate, Olumide Akpata, came in a distant third, securing just 22,761 votes, a stark reflection of the party’s dwindling influence in a state that had once been a Labour Party stronghold.
This razor-thin margin between Okpebholo and Ighodalo should not be taken lightly. The fact that the APC only managed to win by just over 40,000 votes is a telling sign of the deep divisions that persist in Edo’s political landscape. It also raises questions about how robust Okpebholo’s mandate truly is. How much of this victory was rooted in genuine popular support, and how much was a result of backroom deals, voter intimidation, or even outright manipulation?
Allegations of Electoral Misconduct: How Clean Was This Election?
No Nigerian election would be complete without allegations of misconduct, and the Edo gubernatorial race was no exception. Even before the final votes were tallied, whispers of electoral malpractice had begun to circulate. Observers from the PDP and Labour Party quickly voiced their concerns about irregularities at several polling stations, with accusations ranging from the suppression of votes to the manipulation of voter lists.
INEC, in its characteristic fashion, has largely dismissed these allegations, maintaining that the election was free and fair. However, the fact that these claims persist, coupled with the visible tension on the ground during the voting process, casts a shadow over the legitimacy of the results.
At the heart of these concerns is the role of INEC itself. While the electoral body has worked to restore its credibility after years of corruption scandals and operational failures, many remain unconvinced that INEC has completely cleaned up its act. The fact that INEC’s National Commissioner, Rhoda Gumus, played such a central role in officiating the certificate issuance has raised the eyebrows of critics. Could there be unseen hands at play, steering Edo’s political direction behind the scenes?
The Obaseki Legacy: A Polarising Figure Leaves Office
As Monday Okpebholo prepares to take the reins, one cannot overlook the shadow cast by his predecessor, Governor Godwin Obaseki. A man of many contradictions, Obaseki’s two-term reign has left Edo State both better and worse in equal measure. On one hand, his administration is credited with key infrastructural developments and efforts to reform the education sector, earning him a loyal base of supporters. On the other, his tenure was marked by bitter political infighting, a fallout with his former godfather, Adams Oshiomhole, and accusations of authoritarian governance.
It is telling that Obaseki’s handpicked successor from the PDP, Asue Ighodalo, failed to secure the governorship. While Ighodalo came close to victory, the loss signals a resounding rejection of Obaseki’s legacy by a significant portion of Edo’s electorate. With just seven out of 18 LGAs under his control, Ighodalo’s performance in the election shows that the outgoing governor’s influence, while still potent, was not enough to carry his chosen candidate over the finish line.
This begs the question: Is Okpebholo’s victory a referendum on Obaseki’s governance, or is it a sign of broader political discontent within the state? Perhaps it’s a little bit of both.
Monday Okpebholo: The Man, The Politician, The Future?
Monday Okpebholo’s rise to power has been nothing short of meteoric. A relatively unknown figure in national politics just a few years ago, Okpebholo’s ascension through the ranks of the APC is a testament to his political savvy and grassroots appeal. However, the challenges that await him as Edo’s new governor are daunting.
For one, Okpebholo will be inheriting a state still reeling from the economic and social disruptions caused by years of political instability. Edo’s public services remain underfunded, unemployment is rampant, and the education system—despite Obaseki’s best efforts—still lags behind the national average. Security concerns are also a major issue, with increasing incidents of kidnappings, armed robbery, and inter-communal clashes.
The question on everyone’s mind is whether Okpebholo has what it takes to address these issues head-on, or if his tenure will simply be a continuation of the status quo.
APC vs PDP: The Never-Ending Battle for Edo
Edo State has long been a battleground between the APC and the PDP, and this election was no different. For years, the state has swung back and forth between these two political behemoths, with each side claiming victories in various elections. The fact that this gubernatorial race was as close as it was highlights the deep-seated rivalry that continues to define Edo’s political landscape.
Okpebholo’s victory is a major boost for the APC, but it would be naive to assume that the PDP is down and out. Ighodalo’s strong showing indicates that the party still has a firm foothold in the state, and it is likely that the PDP will continue to challenge Okpebholo’s administration at every turn.
The stakes are incredibly high. Edo is not just any state—it’s a key player in the geopolitical landscape of the South-South region. Whoever controls Edo controls a significant part of the oil-rich Niger Delta, making the state a prime target for both political parties.
What Does Okpebholo’s Victory Mean for Edo and Nigeria?
The ramifications of Monday Okpebholo’s victory are immense. For Edo, it represents a new chapter in the state’s political history, one that could either be marked by progress or plagued by stagnation. The electorate’s decision to back the APC signals a desire for change, but whether Okpebholo can deliver on that promise remains to be seen.
On a broader scale, Okpebholo’s win is yet another sign of the APC’s growing dominance in Nigerian politics. With the 2027 presidential elections on the horizon, the APC’s grip on Edo could prove pivotal in shaping the party’s fortunes at the national level.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for Edo’s New Governor
As Monday Okpebholo prepares to assume office on November 11, the eyes of Edo—and indeed Nigeria—are squarely on him. He faces an uphill battle to unite a deeply divided state, address the myriad economic and social challenges left behind by his predecessor, and prove that his victory was more than just a political power grab by the APC.
Will Okpebholo rise to the occasion and lead Edo into a new era of prosperity, or will his administration falter under the weight of expectation and political rivalry? Only time will tell.
