Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has, for the first time in British political history, emerged as outright favourites to win the most seats at the next general election.
Bookmakers Star Sports have slashed odds to 5/4 for Reform UK—overtaking Labour at 11/8 and consigning the Conservatives to 9/2—as surging support for Farage’s hard‑right platform sweeps away two‑party dominance.
A stunning by‑election win in Runcorn and Helsby on 1 May 2025 underlines Reform’s momentum.
Sarah Pochin overturned Labour’s 14,696‑vote majority by a razor‑thin six votes, marking a seismic blow to Keir Starmer’s party and signalling Reform’s capacity to capture traditional Labour strongholds.
But it was the local elections that shattered conventional wisdom. On 1 May, Reform UK claimed 677 council seats—41% of all contests—seizing control of ten councils and two mayoral offices, including Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire.
These victories came at the expense of both Labour and the Tories, who lost a combined 1,350 seats and failed to secure overall control anywhere.
Not since the rise of the SDP in the 1980s has a third party so flagrantly upended Britain’s political order.
William Kedjanyi of Star Sports remarked, “Reform UK have been a growing force in British politics and with Nigel Farage’s party now leading Westminster voting intentions, we’ve cut their price to win the most seats at the next general election, making them outright 5/4 favourites”.
Kedjanyi added that Reform’s breakthrough in the Runcorn & Helsby by‑election and high‑profile defections from the Conservatives underscore the party’s unstoppable advance.
Farage himself hailed these results as “the dawning of a new political age,” writing in The Telegraph that two‑party politics in England, Scotland and Wales has “died” and “will never return.”
He warned Tories that “if you vote Conservative, you will get Labour,” arguing that supporting the Conservatives simply splits the Reform UK vote and ensures Labour gains.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch conceded a “bad night” for her party, attributing the rout to voter disillusionment with rotating leadership and lack of a credible plan.
She insisted, however, that merely changing leader would not reverse Reform’s surge and pledged to “fix our country” rather than chase election day headlines.
With Reform UK now leading in both polls and betting markets, and having proved its organisational prowess through over 400 local branches, the question is no longer if Nigel Farage can deliver a parliamentary majority, but when.
Britain’s political establishment has been rocked to its core—and the realignment shows no signs of abating.
