As the 2027 presidential contest looms, the political landscape within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is simmering with intrigue. Once viewed as a seamless extension of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ticket, Vice President Kashim Shettima now finds his position under siege by a coalition of northern governors and lawmakers.
Credible sources within the Presidency and the APC tell Sunday PUNCH that a coordinated campaign is afoot to persuade Tinubu to select a new running mate—one drawn from the ranks of six ambitious northern power brokers—instead of the incumbent.
Similar reports from New Telegraph corroborate growing disquiet in party corridors about Shettima’s perceived inability to rein in his home-state allies.
High Stakes in the North
Northern Nigeria has long been a crucible of power dynamics in national elections. In 2023, the Tinubu–Shettima ticket rode on a carefully calibrated balance between south-west political heft and north-east mobilisation, yielding a razor-thin victory margin in key northern states.
Shettima’s ascendancy from Borno State was hailed as the fulfilment of a zoning understanding designed to mollify north-eastern elites. Yet, barely two years on, that very alliance appears frayed.
With four governors—two each from the North-East (Borno’s Prof Babagana Zulum and Gombe’s Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya) and the North-West (Kaduna’s Uba Sani and Katsina’s Dikko Radda)—publicly or privately positioning themselves as vice-presidential contenders, the unity of the northern bloc is in jeopardy.
Zulum and Ndume: The Catalyst of Discontent
At the heart of the speculation lies the outspoken criticism of the Tinubu administration by two key figures from Shettima’s own backyard: Governor Zulum and Senator Ali Ndume.
Zulum’s vocal opposition to the contentious tax-reform bills—arguing they skewed benefits towards Lagos at the expense of northern economies—directly challenged presidential policy, earning rebuke from the Information Minister, Mohammed Idris.
Similarly, Ndume’s repeated “unguarded outbursts” against federal governance prompted the APC’s National Working Committee to demand his removal as Senate Majority Whip in July 2024, accusing him of conduct “unbecoming of a senior party member”.
Party insiders argue that such open dissent reflects poorly on Shettima’s stewardship, painting him as unable—or unwilling—to restrain his own supporters.
“If a sitting governor and senator from your state keep criticising the government, it becomes a problem,” one source warns, suggesting Shettima’s political capital is waning.
APC NWC and NEC: A House Divided
Within the APC’s National Working Committee (NWC) and National Executive Committee (NEC), lines are drawn. Some members insist that continuity on the ticket is essential for Tinubu’s re-election bid, arguing that Shettima’s grassroots networks were instrumental in delivering northern votes in 2023.
Others counter that fresh blood is required to rejuvenate the party’s image in its traditional strongholds, believing new candidates can spark greater enthusiasm among northern electorates.
One senior NEC member acknowledges “elements of truth” in the rumour mill, confirming that several governors and lawmakers have quietly lobbied high-ranking officials to “sell” their credentials to the President.
Conversely, the APC’s Deputy National Organising Secretary, Nze Duru, downplays the fuss: “Our focus is governance and delivering dividends to Nigerians. The President will decide his running mate in due course,” he asserts, emphasising the constitutional prerogative resting solely with Tinubu.
Profiles of the Northern Contenders
As plotting intensifies, six prominent figures from the North-East and North-West have emerged as the chief rivals to Vice-President Shettima. Each brings distinct strengths—and liabilities—to the vice-presidential sweepstakes:
1. Governor Mai Mala Buni (Yobe State)
Background & Appeal: A former APC National Chairman turned Yobe Governor (2019–present), Buni is credited with stabilising governance in Yobe amid insurgency, earning plaudits for local infrastructure projects and humanitarian interventions.
Strengths: Seen as a bridge between Tinubu’s South-West base and the North-East, Buni’s record on peace-building could bolster the ticket’s security credentials.
Liabilities: Critics allege his tenure lacks transformative economic impact, and his close ties to party elites may paint him as too establishment-oriented.
2. Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya (Gombe State)
Background & Appeal: In office since 2019, Yahaya has emphasised agriculture and healthcare, positioning Gombe as a model for North-East development.
Strengths: His technocratic approach and reputation for low-key integrity contrast with more flamboyant figures, offering an image of quiet competence.
Liabilities: Lack of high-profile national engagements could limit his immediate name recognition beyond the North-East.
3. Senator Uba Sani (Kaduna State)
Background & Appeal: Elected Governor of Kaduna in 2023 after two Senate terms, Sani campaigned on anti-corruption and urban renewal, commanding significant youth support.
Strengths: His victory in the populous North-West and reformist branding may attract northern swing voters critical for Tinubu.
Liabilities: Kaduna’s complex religious and ethnic dynamics mean any perceived favouritism could ignite tensions, a risk for a national ticket.
4. Governor Dikko Radda (Katsina State)
Background & Appeal: The 2023–present Katsina Governor, formerly an APC National Youth Leader, Radda pledged job creation and social investment after succeeding Aminu Masari.
Strengths: Youthful energy and strong grassroots networks position him as a mobiliser among the North-West’s burgeoning electorate.
Liabilities: Limited executive experience at the state level may raise doubts about his readiness for national office.
5. Speaker Tajudeen Abass (House of Representatives)
Background & Appeal: As Speaker since June 2023, Abass has projected an image of parliamentary activism and legislative reform.
Strengths: His legislative pedigree and cross-regional alliances could signal a more balanced, inclusive ticket.
Liabilities: Critics argue that Speakers risk being tarred with parliamentary gridlock, diminishing their executive appeal.
6. Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin
Background & Appeal: The Kano-born deputy presides over Senate proceedings and is noted for his advocacy on national budgets and fiscal oversight.
Strengths: As a respected accountant by training, Jibrin’s technocratic credentials could buttress Tinubu’s economic agenda.
Liabilities: Kano’s fiercely competitive politics may make his selection divisive among other North-West aspirants.
Electoral Fall-Off in Shettima’s Backyard
Despite Shettima’s north-eastern origin, the region delivered a surprising rebuke in 2023. In the six North-East states, incumbent parties trailed the APC by a wide margin—former VP Atiku Abubakar (PDP) secured 50.58% to Tinubu’s 34.50%, underscoring an erosion of the APC’s “home-field advantage”. Such statistics…
Borno State (Shettima’s home): Tinubu managed just 54.22% in Borno, compared with Atiku’s 41.03%—a narrow edge given Shettima’s local roots.
Gombe & Yobe: Similarly, margins in Gombe (Tinubu 34.50% vs. Atiku 50.58%) and Yobe reflect the chasm between local expectations and federal performance.
This palpable “confidence vacuum,” as party insiders describe it, not only weakens Shettima’s claim to northern loyalty but also emboldens his would-be successors.
Historical Context: Zoning and VP Selection
Since the return to civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria’s political parties have largely respected an informal zoning convention, rotating the presidency between regions and balancing tickets accordingly. Notably:
2007: Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (North-West) picked Goodluck Jonathan (South-South) to cement regional harmony.
2015: Muhammadu Buhari (North-West) paired with Yemi Osinbajo (South-West), mirroring tri-zonal appeasement.
2023: Tinubu’s choice of Shettima (North-East) upheld the tradition—but only just, with slim margins in pivotal northern zones.
For 2027, many northern stakeholders point to this precedent to argue for a fresh face—one capable of re-energising APC’s northern coalition and reversing the deficits recorded under Shettima.
Implications for Tinubu and the APC
The unfolding vice-presidential scramble holds profound consequences for President Tinubu’s re-election strategy and the APC’s cohesion:
Re-energising Northern Voters
With Tinubu having secured only 34.50 per cent of the vote in the entire North-East zone in 2023—versus 50.58 per cent for Atiku Abubakar—the choice of running mate will be pivotal to reclaiming lost ground.
A fresh face from that region who commands genuine local appeal could counter voter apathy and revitalise the APC’s northern base.
Balancing Experience and Enthusiasm
Shettima’s critics emphasise his perceived lack of independent initiative; yet, he brings seasoned federal-level experience and intimate knowledge of the Tinubu presidency.
By contrast, younger governors like Dikko Radda offer grassroots energy but scant national exposure. Tinubu must weigh institutional memory against the galvanising power of novelty.
Managing Party Factions
An abrupt decision to drop Shettima risks alienating the entire North-East caucus—especially Governor Zulum and his following—threatening defections or sabotage in key states.
Conversely, reaffirming Shettima may demoralise aspirant governors and lawmakers in the North-West, who could withdraw organisational support.
Precedent and Perception
By adhering to the informal zoning convention—retaining the North-East slot—Tinubu would reinforce faith in intra-party agreements.
Yet, breaking that tradition by opting for a North-West candidate might court short-term excitement but incur long-term skepticism about the APC’s reliability as a coalition.
Scenarios for 2027
| Scenario | Upside | Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Retain Shettima | Continuity, federal experience, party stability | May not reverse northern vote deficits |
| Select a North-East Governor (Buni/Yahaya) | Signals respect for zoning, taps regional networks | Perceived as “same old”; limited national name recognition |
| Choose a North-West Contender (Sani/Radda) | Injects fresh energy, appeals to populous zone | Could spurn North-East, compromising loyalty |
| Elevate a Legislative Leader (Abass/Jibrin) | Showcases reformist credentials, legislative bridge | Risk of internal dissent among executive aspirants |
Conclusion
As 2027 approaches, Tinubu stands at a crossroads: lean on the steady hand of Vice-President Shettima, whose tenure has been defined by loyalty but critiqued for a “confidence vacuum,” or gamble on a new face to reignite northern enthusiasm.
The choice transcends mere bookkeeping of regional balance—it will signal the APC’s willingness to adapt, reward loyalty, or pursue audacious change.
In the end, only Tinubu can decide whether continuity or reinvention best serves his political survival.
Yet, one truth endures: whoever emerges as his running mate must not only placate warring factions in the APC but also rekindle the hope of northern Nigerians whose votes will once again determine the fate of the presidency.
Atlantic Post writers Osaigbovo Okungbowa, Peter Jene & Suleiman Adamu contributed to this report.
