As Nigeria marked Democracy Day on 12 June 2025, the venerable Pan-Yoruba socio-political organisation Afenifere reignited the debate on restructuring with an impassioned demand: a new constitution, rooted in the recommendations of the 2014 National Conference, must be in place before the 2027 general elections.
Led by Oba Oladipo Olaitan, the group argues that only through true federalism, rather than the current “winner-takes-all” model, can Nigeria transcend its persistent inequalities and unlock sustainable development.
The Flaws of Winner-Takes-All
Since the return to uninterrupted civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria’s political landscape has been dominated by a hyper-centralised presidency and a revenue model almost entirely dependent on crude oil.
This over-centralisation has bred a cycle of resource misallocation: recurrent expenditures balloon at the expense of capital projects, and regions starve for basic infrastructure.
Afenifere contends that this system has only deepened regional cleavages and stifled growth in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Recurrent vs Capital Expenditure: 76% of the 2025 federal budget went to recurrent costs, leaving a paltry 24% for critical infrastructure and social services.
Debt Burden: Nigeria’s public debt is projected to hit ₦150 trillion by Q1 2025, up from ₦142 trillion in September 2024, further constraining fiscal space for development.
A Nation of 371 Ethnic Nationalities
With over 371 ethnic groups speaking more than 500 languages, Nigeria stands among the world’s most culturally diverse nations.
Yet this diversity—rather than serving as a wellspring of strength—has often been exploited by political elites for sectional advantage.
Afenifere warns that unless governance structures are recalibrated to grant genuine autonomy, ethnic tensions will only intensify, threatening the very fabric of the federation.
“The problem lies in how to weave nationhood from our diverse nationalities. Every group must feel legitimately represented in the country’s political and economic arrangements,” Oba Olaitan emphasised.
Learning from History: The 2014 National Conference
In 2014, then-President Goodluck Jonathan convened a National Conference that produced over 500 recommendations covering fiscal federalism, local government autonomy, revenue sharing and more. But political inertia and vested interests rendered these proposals stillborn.
Afenifere now insists that those recommendations constitute the only viable blueprint for a restructured Nigeria:
True Fiscal Federalism: Devolve not only responsibilities but also revenue-raising powers to the federating units.
Autonomous Local Government Councils: Insulate third-tier governments from state executive interference.
Equitable Revenue Formula: Base allocations on population, derivation, need and population density.
Judicial Independence: Strengthen state judiciaries to enforce citizens’ rights effectively.
Constituent Assembly: Convene a sovereign assembly, made up of elected representatives of every nationality, to draft a new constitution.
The NINAS Five-Point Proposition: A Complementary Blueprint
Parallel to Afenifere’s call stands the Nigerian Indigenous Nationalities Alliance for Self-Determination (NINAS), which, since its December 16, 2020 Constitutional Force Majeure Proclamation (titled “Correcting the Mistake of 1914”), has championed a Five-Point Proposition for Union Configuration:
1. Formal Recognition of Grievances
The Federal Government must publicly acknowledge the “grave constitutional grievances” and the sovereignty dispute declared by the peoples of the South and Middle‑Belt.
2. Immediate Decommissioning of the 1999 Constitution
A binding commitment to jettison the 1999 Constitution—likened to South Africa’s removal of its apartheid constitution in 1990—as the legal basis of the Nigerian federation.
3. Suspension of General Elections under the Disputed Constitution
A formal suspension of any further national elections conducted under the repudiated 1999 Constitution, since any office‑holder would be sworn in on an illegitimate legal framework.
4. Establishment of a Transitional Authority
An invitation to the peoples of the South and Middle‑Belt to agree and sit on a Transitional Authority, detailing its composition, mandate and time‑frame to steer the shift away from the unitary order.
5. Launch of a Time‑Bound, Two‑Stage Reconfiguration Process
The initiation of a time‑bound transitioning process, comprising:
- Stage One: Distillation and ratification of regional constitutions by referendum or plebiscite;
- Stage Two: Negotiation of the terms of a renewed federation (or confederation/independent units) based on those regional outcomes.
These five points remain the cornerstone of NINAS’s alternative to both military coups and mass revolts, providing a non‑violent, democratic roadmap for re‑configuring Nigeria’s constitutional basis.
By merging the 2014 recommendations with NINAS’s radical vision, Nigeria could forge a truly federal polity—one in which no region is permanently disenfranchised and all have a stake in national prosperity.
India as a Model?
Echoing Afenifere’s statement, some observers note that India, with over 2,000 ethnic groups, has remained united since 1947 under a federal constitution that balances central authority with robust state powers. Nigeria, they argue, must similarly embrace its diversity rather than view it as an impediment.
Roadblocks and Political Will
Despite the compelling case for restructuring, powerful actors have vested interests in the status quo. The ruling party and select state governors have resisted devolution, fearing a dilution of revenue streams.
Moreover, the Federal Government’s recent requests to borrow US \$21.5 billion, €2.1 billion and ¥15 billion underscore its dependence on external financing to plug budget deficits, further entrenching central dominance.
Yet, as June 12 reminds us, Nigeria’s democracy was born of sacrifice and determination. The late Chief MKO Abiola’s 1993 mandate—annulled by military decree—became the crucible for ensuring that “no man dies in vain”.
Afenifere argues that the same spirit must now be wielded to reinvent the federation.
“We must reinvent a federal Nigeria based on mutually agreed principles. That is the true spirit of June 12,” Afenifere concluded.
Conclusion: Countdown to 2027
With just two years until the next general elections, the clock is ticking. Afenifere’s clarion call, supported by NINAS’s Five-Point Proposition, offers a roadmap to avert Nigeria’s dangerous drift.
It demands courage from President Bola Tinubu and the political elite to convene a constituent assembly, adopt NINAS propositions and enshrine true federalism under a new constitutional framework powered by “We the People”.
For Nigeria’s diverse nationalities—over 371 in number—the choice is stark: continue under the tyranny of winner-takes-all, or seize the moment to build a federation that reflects the aspirations of every citizen.
As June 12 fades into memory, the real test begins: will Nigeria restructure or remain trapped in its cycles of inequality?
Atlantic Post writer Osaigbovo Okungbowa contributed to this report.
