Nigeria’s power minister, Adebayo Adelabu, has apologised for the worsening blackout that has left homes, businesses, schools and industries counting losses, but his central defence is already drawing fresh criticism.
The minister says the crisis is being driven by factors “beyond our control”, while insisting that government intervention will restore a measure of stability within weeks.
That explanation may sound reassuring in the short term, but the evidence across the power chain points to a deeper crisis of gas supply, debt, transmission fragility and regulatory contradiction.
At the heart of the current outage is a worsening gas supply squeeze. Punch reported that electricity generation had fallen below 4,000MW in recent weeks, while 11 distribution companies were sharing only 3,053MW as of Tuesday.
The same report said thermal plants need about 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet of gas per day to run optimally, but actual supply had dropped to roughly 692.00 mmscf per day, less than 43 per cent of what is required.
The publication also linked the crisis to an estimated N3.3tn gas supply debt hanging over the power value chain.
That is why Adelabu’s apology, though politically necessary, does not answer the larger question. If the government says the crisis is “beyond control”, Nigerians are entitled to ask why the same sector keeps returning to the same emergency point.
The minister told reporters that supply should improve within two weeks and attributed the problem to gas shortages, stressing that about 75 per cent of power plants rely on gas while hydro contributes only about 25 per cent.
He also said the ministry was working “around the clock” to return the sector to the 2025 trend.
The technical record does not flatter the sector either. In its Third Quarter 2025 report, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission said the average available generation capacity of grid-connected plants was 5,430.34MW, while average hourly generation stood at 4,179.15MWh/h.
The same report said there was one national grid disturbance in the quarter, culminating in a total collapse on 10 September 2025.
It also showed that the average lower and upper system frequencies and the voltage profile sat outside normal operating limits, a reminder that the grid is still operating under stress rather than stability.
This is not a crisis that began in March 2026. Reuters had already warned in 2024 that Nigeria’s national grid was repeatedly collapsing because of ageing infrastructure, vandalism and inadequate gas supply to thermal stations.
The agency noted that although Nigeria has the capacity to generate about 13,000MW, only a third of that typically reaches consumers through the creaking grid.
In March 2025, Reuters also reported a 30 per cent surge in output to a peak near 6,000MW after part of the grid overhaul advanced, but even then generation still hovered around 5,590MW later that week. BusinessDay separately reported the government’s own claim that Nigeria hit 6,003MW on 2 March 2025.
That is the key tension in Adelabu’s messaging. On one hand, he is pointing to a positive 2025 trajectory and to the 6,003MW milestone. On the other, the present market is still unable to hold power at a level Nigerians can feel in daily life.
Reuters reported in April 2025 that electricity subsidies had fallen by 35 per cent after a tariff hike for high-usage customers, generating an extra N700bn in revenue and narrowing the shortfall from N3tn to N1.9tn.
Yet the same report said the power sector was still burdened by a failing grid, gas shortages, high debt and vandalism.
In other words, the money equation may have improved, but the service equation has not.
That gap matters because the tariff regime itself now sells a promise that the grid is failing to keep. NERC’s own tariff FAQ says Band A customers are entitled to a minimum of 20 hours of supply a day, with lower bands promised 16, 12, 8 and 4 hours respectively.
But when households and firms paying far more still face darkness, the public reads the outage not as a temporary inconvenience but as a breach of contract.
The regulator’s service bands and the lived reality of consumers are moving in opposite directions.
The debt trail is where the minister’s “beyond control” argument becomes weakest.
Punch reported that generation companies say the Federal Government owes them about N6.8tn, with roughly N3.3tn tied to gas suppliers, and that suppliers are threatening to stop deliveries unless payment is made.
Reuters had already said in 2025 that debt owed to generation companies had reached N4tn, with the power sector still struggling to pay suppliers and maintain plants.
These are not weather events or acts of God. They are the result of years of unresolved liquidity failure, tariff distortion and weak settlement discipline.
That is why Adelabu’s reassurance will be judged by outcomes, not rhetoric. He has promised a return to 2025 conditions and repeated the familiar target of 6,000MW before the end of the year.
But Nigerians have heard versions of that promise before. In January, he said 2026 would deliver more reliable and sustainable electricity.
By March, the country was still fighting blackouts severe enough to force households back to generators, spoil food, disrupt schooling and crush productivity.
The political cost of another broken power promise is obvious, but the economic cost is even larger.
The deeper truth is that Nigeria’s electricity crisis is no longer just about generation. It is about gas availability, debt settlement, transmission fragility, regulatory credibility and a public that has grown tired of hearing that the next fix is always just a few weeks away.
Adelabu may be right that not every problem sits directly on the ministry’s desk. But the ministry cannot escape responsibility for a sector where the lights still go out, the bills still go up and the promises still come early.
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