Atlantic Post

A new Nigerian study has exposed a potentially damaging contradiction at the heart of the country’s security architecture: many citizens say they are willing to help the police fight crime, yet a far larger number say they do not trust the institution enough to feel safe when sharing what they know.

The study, published on 26 August 2026 in the Iconic Research and Engineering Journals, found that corruption, alleged misconduct, perceptions of unfair treatment and fear of retaliation are weakening public confidence in the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) and, in turn, creating barriers to citizen-led intelligence gathering. 

Its central finding is stark. 84.8 per cent of respondents said corruption and police misconduct reduce their confidence in the NPF, while 85.2 per cent said they do not believe the police treat citizens fairly and without bias. Another 67.6 per cent said officers in their communities do not behave professionally when dealing with members of the public. 

But perhaps the most consequential finding for Nigeria’s worsening security crisis is this: 68.4 per cent of respondents said they did not feel safe sharing intelligence with the police because of fears of intimidation or victimisation. At the same time, 88.7 per cent said they would be more willing to share intelligence if they trusted the police more. 

The implication is not simply that Nigerians dislike or distrust the police. It is that a damaged relationship between citizens and law enforcement may be weakening one of the most important tools available to any modern security system: information from the people who live, work and travel in communities where criminals operate.

That concern comes at a particularly dangerous moment. A recent SBM Intelligence assessment reported that 7,825 people were kidnapped in Nigeria between July 2025 and June 2026, a 66 per cent increase from the preceding year, while at least 1,142 people were killed in kidnapping incidents. Ransom payments during the period were estimated at about $5.79 million, although the researchers said the real figure could be higher because many payments are not publicly disclosed. 

In such an environment, every missing tip, delayed warning or withheld piece of information can potentially increase the time available to kidnappers, bandits, cult groups, traffickers and other criminal networks.

What the new study actually found

The study, titled “Influence of Public Trust and Perception of the Nigeria Police Force on Intelligence Sharing Among Citizens,” was authored by journalist James Ojo Adakole and published in Volume 10, Issue 2 of IRE Journals. The paper analysed 256 valid responses after 300 Nigerians had been targeted for participation. It was based on the Procedural Justice Theory and Institutional Trust Theory. 

The results paint a picture of a police-public relationship under severe strain.

62.9 per cent of respondents said they did not trust the police to protect lives and property in their communities. A larger 72.7 per cent said they lacked confidence in the NPF’s ability to respond effectively to security threats. 

The confidentiality question was even more troubling.

Only 35.2 per cent said they trusted the police to handle information supplied by citizens confidentially and responsibly. In other words, nearly two-thirds—64.8 per cent—said they did not have that confidence. 

That matters enormously for intelligence-led policing.

A resident who knows where a suspected kidnapper is hiding, a trader who notices unfamiliar men moving weapons, a transport worker who witnesses a suspicious movement, or a community member who hears advance information about an impending attack may have the most valuable intelligence available before the state has any official warning.

But intelligence is useful only when people are willing to provide it.

And willingness, the study suggests, can collapse when citizens believe that identifying criminals could expose them to the criminals—or expose them to an untrustworthy security system.

The paradox: Nigerians still want to help

The findings are not uniformly bleak.

Indeed, one of the study’s most important discoveries is that the door to cooperation is not closed.

74.6 per cent of respondents said they would report suspicious activities or criminal behaviour to the police.

Even more—84.4 per cent—said they would provide useful security information if doing so could help prevent crime. 

That creates a striking paradox.

A majority of the people surveyed appear willing to help the police, but many simultaneously question the institution’s fairness, competence, confidentiality and integrity.

The difference is critical.

It suggests that the problem may not be a fundamental unwillingness by Nigerians to participate in their own security. Rather, it may be the conditions under which citizens are expected to cooperate.

The study found that 52 per cent of respondents said their trust in, and perception of, the police influenced their willingness to share intelligence. More dramatically, 88.7 per cent said they would be more willing to share intelligence if they trusted the police more. 

That is an important distinction for policymakers.

The message coming from the data is not, essentially, “Nigerians do not care about security.”

It is closer to: “Nigerians may be prepared to help, but they want evidence that helping will not put them at risk.”

Personal encounters appear to be driving the distrust

The paper also challenges the convenient argument that negative perceptions of the police are simply the product of social media, rumours or hostile publicity.

The researcher found that 71.5 per cent of those answering one of the study’s questions said their assessment was based on personal experience with the police. Elsewhere, the study reported that 59.8 per cent of respondents had personally encountered the NPF, with 52.9 per cent of those describing the encounter as negative, compared with 17.6 per cent who described it as positive. 

That finding is significant because it moves the debate from public relations to institutional behaviour.

You cannot rebuild trust merely by changing slogans, uniforms, publicity campaigns or social-media messaging if citizens’ actual encounters with officers continue to reinforce negative perceptions.

A 2026 study by Smart Egwu Otu and colleagues, involving 607 Nigerian residents, reached a related conclusion from a different angle. It found that perceptions of police legal and moral conformity and community involvement were positively associated with different dimensions of public trust, while perceived police ineffectiveness was negatively associated with trust. 

Another 2026 doctoral study by Rasheed Babatunde Ibrahim, based on a cross-sectional survey of 1,655 Nigerian adults, similarly found that trust and police-resident familiarity encouraged cooperation, while fear of police, fear of retaliation and barriers to cooperation reduced it. Prior negative experiences involving police use of force and corruption were associated with greater fear and lower cooperation. 

Taken together, the emerging academic picture is difficult for the police establishment to dismiss.

Nigeria’s trust problem is bigger than one survey

The latest findings do not exist in isolation.

Afrobarometer’s Nigeria survey, based on a nationally representative sample of 1,600 adults interviewed between 19 June and 17 July 2024, found that 70 per cent of respondents believed most or all police officials were involved in corruption. Among citizens who had sought selected public services, 67 per cent said they had paid a bribe to obtain police assistance, while 53 per cent reported paying a bribe to avoid problems with the police. Only 10 per cent believed people could report corruption without fear of retaliation. 

Earlier Afrobarometer research was equally troubling. Its Nigeria analysis found that only 15 per cent of citizens said they trusted the police somewhat or a lot. The same research found substantial perceptions of bribery, excessive force and poor professionalism, while just 13 per cent said police often or always operated professionally and respected citizens’ rights. 

The Africa Polling Institute’s 2025 Social Cohesion Survey went further, reporting that 80 per cent of respondents had little or no trust in the NPF, leaving only 20 per cent expressing some or a lot of trust. 

The institute’s 2026 report, based on a large face-to-face survey involving 5,315 interviews conducted across Nigeria, reported only 24 per cent trust in the police, placing the force among the least trusted public institutions in the survey. 

The pattern, therefore, is not confined to the 256-person Ojo study.

The new research should be understood as another piece of evidence in a much larger—and increasingly consistent—body of research showing a serious public-confidence deficit.

But there is an important caveat about the new study

There is also an investigative detail that should not be ignored.

Although the study’s abstract describes its participants as Nigerians “across the country”, its methodology reveals that the research is not a nationally representative probability survey.

The researcher purposively targeted 300 literate Nigerians, split between online and offline respondents. The online component used Google Forms distributed through social-media networks and relied on snowball sampling. The offline component involved questionnaires distributed in Alimosho Local Government Area of Lagos State, where residents were selected using convenience sampling. Ultimately, 256 valid responses were analysed. 

The study itself reports that 68.4 per cent of respondents were based in Lagos, while 43.4 per cent were aged 26 to 35 and 60.5 per cent held an HND or bachelor’s degree. 

That has consequences for how the findings should be interpreted.

The percentages are useful signals of public attitudes among the people surveyed. They should not be treated as a precise national estimate for all Nigerians.

Nor does the study’s methodology establish a causal relationship in the strict statistical sense between police misconduct and reduced intelligence sharing across the entire country.

What it does show is an association inside a defined sample: people reporting low trust and negative perceptions also report barriers to intelligence sharing.

That distinction matters.

It does not weaken the significance of the findings; it makes them more credible to report accurately.

The economic cost of distrust

The issue is not merely about police image.

It carries an economic cost.

Nigeria’s insecurity already imposes heavy losses through ransom payments, closed businesses, disrupted supply chains, displacement, damaged farms, reduced investment confidence, travel restrictions and higher private security expenses.

When communities begin to believe that reporting criminal activity is dangerous or pointless, the informal intelligence economy surrounding criminal groups becomes stronger while the state’s intelligence network becomes weaker.

A kidnapping prevented because a resident provided early information costs the economy far less than a kidnapping that proceeds to ransom negotiation.

A robbery stopped through a tip is cheaper than a robbery followed by business closure, insurance claims, medical bills and lost working time.

A violent attack prevented through community intelligence imposes almost no reconstruction cost compared with what follows an attack: deaths, displacement, destroyed property, interrupted schooling and lost commercial activity.

Trust, therefore, is not a soft political concept.

It is security infrastructure.

The police themselves appear to recognise this.

In April 2025, the Ministry of Police Affairs said the civilian population was a “vital asset” in security management and argued that stronger police-community relations and public trust would improve intelligence gathering and preventive security measures. 

The reform challenge

The federal government has also taken steps that appear designed to address some of the institutional concerns raised by the research.

In April 2026, the Ministry of Police Affairs announced the Nigeria Police Regulations (Amendment) 2026, describing them as a framework for strengthening accountability, professionalism and service delivery. The ministry said the regulations introduce clearer command structures, stronger disciplinary and oversight mechanisms, improved training and career systems, and reinforced human-rights standards. 

But the central test is no longer whether reform documents exist.

It is whether the average Nigerian can see the difference at a police checkpoint, inside a station, during a complaint, when reporting a crime or while attempting to provide intelligence.

The Nigeria Police Force has publicly reaffirmed a zero-tolerance position on corruption, misconduct and abuse of office, while urging officers to uphold discipline, integrity and respect for human rights. 

The Police Service Commission also has an established disciplinary mechanism covering pending disciplinary matters, appeals, petitions and public complaints. 

In December 2024, the commission said it had considered 109 pending disciplinary matters, while approving the dismissal of 18 senior police officers and rank reductions involving others. 

Those actions demonstrate that accountability mechanisms exist.

The harder question is whether citizens believe they work consistently, transparently and without political or institutional protection for erring officers.

The confidentiality problem may be the most dangerous

Among all the findings, the figure that deserves the closest attention may be the 68.4 per cent who said they did not feel safe sharing intelligence because of intimidation or victimisation. 

Security agencies can build bigger databases, purchase more equipment and increase manpower, but they cannot manufacture local knowledge as efficiently as communities can generate it.

A resident often knows the unfamiliar face.

A market trader notices the new group renting a shop.

A transport operator observes unusual movements.

A neighbourhood leader hears threats before an attack.

A farmer recognises the route used by armed men.

A phone conversation, a vehicle number or a repeated movement may mean nothing to an outsider but everything to somebody who understands the community.

The state’s challenge is to persuade such people that speaking up will not make them the next target.

That requires more than anonymous tip lines.

It requires credible confidentiality, protection against retaliation, rapid response, professional investigation and visible punishment for officers who compromise informants.

Without those assurances, citizens may rationally conclude that silence is safer.

What the researcher wants the police to change

Ojo’s recommendations are consequently focused less on publicity and more on institutional behaviour.

The study calls for stronger efforts to remove officers involved in corruption and misconduct, regular training in public engagement, measures allowing citizens to report crime without fear of intimidation or victimisation, sustained interactive engagement with communities, and improvements in the police’s basic effectiveness in protecting lives and property and responding to threats. 

The researcher also framed the issue against Nigeria’s worsening insecurity.

“At a critical time in the country’s history, Nigerians need the police to dismantle rising criminal networks that have made many of them feel largely unsafe on the road and in their homes,” Adakole said.

“Without public goodwill, however, this will be a tall order for the Nigeria Police Force to achieve.”

He added: “The police must therefore dissipate more effort and resources to build trust and address negative perceptions of the force through professionalism and improved efficiency in the discharge of its constitutional duties.”

Those words go to the heart of the issue.

The real security crisis may be the gap between citizens and the state

Nigeria has spent years debating whether the country needs more police officers, better equipment, modern technology, drones, forensic laboratories, intelligence fusion and stronger operational funding.

All of those things matter.

But a well-equipped police force that citizens are afraid to approach can still be intelligence-poor.

The emerging evidence suggests that Nigeria’s security problem is partly an institutional trust problem.

A 2024 study by Dany Franck A. Tiwa described this as an “institutional distrust trap” in which public distrust encourages informal policing practices that can further damage confidence in the state, creating a vicious cycle. 

The danger is obvious.

Citizens withdraw.

Police lose information.

Criminals gain room to manoeuvre.

Police respond more forcefully or reactively.

Public confidence falls further.

Then the cycle begins again.

Breaking it will require more than demanding that Nigerians cooperate.

The police will have to give Nigerians a reason to believe that cooperation is safe, confidential, worthwhile—and that the institution will respond competently when citizens take the risk of speaking up.

The most revealing number in Ojo’s study may therefore not be 84.8 per cent or 85.2 per cent.

It may be 88.7 per cent.

Nearly nine in ten respondents said they would be more willing to share intelligence if they trusted the police more. 

That is not a rejection of policing.

It is an invitation to rebuild the bargain between the citizen and the state.

The question confronting the Nigeria Police Force is whether it can seize that opportunity before criminals exploit the trust deficit even further.

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