Former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi has set off a political firestorm by claiming that President Bola Tinubu’s government “borrowed more money in two years than the combined total of Presidents Obasanjo, Yar’Adua, Jonathan and Buhari.” Pro-Tinubu voices immediately fired back.
Social media platforms were flooded with heated counter-claims, data points and accusations. As Nigerians and international observers chime in, the truth about the debt trajectory gets tangled in politics.
This report cuts through the noise. We fact-check each claim against official data, using Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) figures, as well as World Bank, IMF and news reports.
We compare debt levels historically and examine the impact of naira depreciation, inflation and borrowing patterns. And we highlight what this means for ordinary Nigerians and foreign investors.
Throughout, we cite authoritative sources to separate fact from spin.
Obi’s Bombshell: “More than All Predecessors Combined”
On June 9, 2025, Peter Obi told Channels TV (Sunday Politics with Seun Okinbaloye) that in his first two years Tinubu had added more debt than all his immediate predecessors combined. Word of this claim quickly spread on social media.
In a sharp rebuttal, Reno Omokri accused Obi of “blatantly” lying, while analysts and finance experts weighed in. So who is right?
To evaluate Obi’s claim, we first look at the numbers.
According to the DMO, Nigeria’s total public debt was N12.60 trillion (US$65.43bn) at end-2015 (the last year of President Jonathan), and N46.25 trillion (US$103.11bn) by end-2022 (the end of Buhari’s term).
By contrast, under Tinubu the debt reached N97.34 trillion (US$108.23bn) by end-2023 and N144.67 trillion (US$94.23bn) by end-2024.
In dollar terms, Buhari’s debt ($103.11bn) exceeds Tinubu’s current level ($94.23bn). Obi’s own data (from DMO) was that Tinubu “borrowed” almost $108bn by 2023, which in naira was ₦97.34tn. In other words, Tinubu’s total debt is still below Buhari’s year-end total.
Moreover, the combined debt of Obasanjo, Yar’Adua, Jonathan and Buhari is far larger. Buhari alone took Nigeria from about $65.4bn (2015) to $103.1bn (2022). Obasanjo and Yar’Adua managed Nigeria’s debt until 2010, and Jonathan saw it at $65.4bn in 2015.
Summing all these up, the predecessors’ total debt stock far exceeds what Tinubu has accumulated. In short, official data do not support Obi’s claim. As Tribune noted, “there’s no available data to support or refute”Obi’s assertion – but a look at the numbers suggests the claim is inaccurate.
The FocusEconomics indicator also confirms that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio rose under Tinubu to about 52.9% of GDP in 2024, from 48.7% in 2023. That steep jump is real, but again it reflects a rapidly growing economy and a depreciating naira, not necessarily outrunning past administrations in sheer borrowed sums.
Currency Distortions: Debt in Naira vs Dollars
A key element of the debate is the exchange rate effect. Both Tinubu and Obi cite the wrong currency unit to make their point.
Reno Omokri’s Spin
He claims Nigeria’s external debt fell from $108.2bn on May 29, 2023 to $94.2bn today, and that Obi “converted” that to naira at ₦1,560/$ to make it look bigger.
Omokri is correct that Nigeria’s total public debt was about $108.23bn at end-2023 and roughly $94.23bn at end-2024. But those figures include domestic debt revalued in dollars.
The decline in dollar terms is simply due to the naira’s collapse (from ~₦460/$ in early 2023 to ₦1,536/$ by end-2024), not a paydown of loans.
In naira terms, debt almost tripled: from ₦49.85tn in Q1 2023 to ₦144.67tn by end-2024. So Omokri’s point about $ terms is misleading without context.
Obi’s Emphasis on Naira
Others note that debt is legally serviced in naira, not dollars. When Tinubu took office in May 2023, total debt was ₦49.85tn (≈$108.3bn). By end-2024 it is ₦144.67tn (≈$94.23bn). That naira increase (from ₦49.85tn to ₦144.67tn) is a 190% rise in nominal terms, largely driven by currency float and new borrowings.
Observer Opeyemi Adigun is right to stress that the real burden is felt in naira – higher domestic debt means higher interest costs and inflation.
The DMO data support this: domestic debt in naira grew from ₦59.12tn (Dec 2023) to ₦74.38tn (Dec 2024), while external debt grew from ₦38.22tn to ₦70.29tn in the same period. In short, the debt weight on the economy has soared.
To illustrate, consider Naira inflation vs debt stock. Nigeria’s annual inflation climbed to 33.7% in April 2024 (28-year high) and 33.95% in May 2024. Most Nigerians blame subsidy cuts and currency devaluation.
Even though official debt in dollars shrank, prices are up and budgets are squeezed. This underscores that looking at the wrong metric can flip the narrative.
How Much Borrowed is Tinubu’s Government?
Let’s set straight what Tinubu’s administration actually borrowed in 2023–2024. The World Bank and African Development Bank lend figures help here:
World Bank loans: By October 2024, Nigeria had secured about $6.45bn in World Bank financing under Tinubu. This includes projects like power, education and stabilisation programmes.
AfDB loan: In July 2024 the African Development Bank approved a $500 million loan to Nigeria for energy sector support. While Omokri mentions “$500m from AfDB”, this was specifically for a power infrastructure programme, which does increase debt.
Other multilaterals: Tinubu also sought IMF and other multilateral funds (e.g. a $3bn IMF facility in late 2023, not yet disbursed).
In total, estimates suggest Tinubu’s FG borrowed roughly $6–7bn externally in 2023–24, plus raised about ₦56tn (~$21bn) from domestic markets. In Q1 2024 alone, Nigeria’s domestic debt stock jumped to ₦121.67tn (from ₦87.38tn in Q2 2023), largely from securing Ways & Means debts and new bonds.
Emeka Ibeawuchi tallied “₦56tn (~$21bn)” of additional borrowings in about 23 months. (For context, Buhari’s FG borrowed about ₦6.5tn in 2021 alone.) Tinubu’s figures don’t magically exceed all past presidents.
Even so, Nigeria’s aggregate debt stock is at record levels – not because of one man’s borrowing spree, but because of many years of fiscal deficit financing plus the naira slide.
What’s new is the speed: from ₦49.85tn in March 2023 to ₦134.30tn by June 2024. That 75% jump in one quarter was a one-off effect of converting legacy liabilities, but it demonstrates how the book-keeping changed. By December 2024, total public debt was ₦144.67tn.
A visual summary of Nigeria’s total debt in recent years makes the escalation clear:
Table 1: Nigeria’s Public Debt (₦ Trillions and US$ Billions)
This confirms Peter Obi’s core concern: while dollar-denominated debt appears to decline, Nigeria’s real burden—debt in naira—has skyrocketed, reflecting the painful impact of currency devaluation and continued domestic borrowing.
The Social Media Quarrel
Let’s walk through the key players on X (formerly Twitter) and their arguments:
Reno Omokri (@renoomokri) – Former aide to ex-President Jonathan and prominent Tinubu ally. He called Obi a “manipulative trader” and accused him of “gaslighting” Nigerians. Omokri cited DMO figures to claim debt fell (in $ terms) and that Obi “lied blatantly”. He promised to “present irrefutable evidence” on live TV.
His core arguments: (a) Tinubu’s foreign debt is down ($108.2bn → $94.2bn), (b) therefore Obi misled. (c) In local currency, Tinubu’s debt rose due to naira float, but that’s an accounting effect, not real borrowing.
Fact Check: It’s true external debt in dollar terms fell, but only because the naira plunged. The real total borrowing (external plus domestic) has shot up in naira. Omokri is splitting hairs by focusing on $ values. His claim that Nigeria’s debt “reduced” ignores the domestic debt tsunami and assumes currency should hold.
In context, his point is technically correct but misleading. The debt stock in USD did drop by ~$14bn, but domestic debt in naira rose by ~N15tn in one year. Moreover, external debt itself in naira terms rose from ₦38tn to ₦70tn, just valued at a weaker rate.
Emeka Ibeawuchi (@Emekaibe1) – Economist/journalist. He responded to Omokri by citing data (some from EconomyPost, some from DMO/NBS) showing Tinubu did borrow heavily ($6.45bn WB loans, plus lots of domestic bonds) but not more than all predecessors.
He agrees debt in USD fell $14bn due to depreciation. Emeka’s conclusion: Obi’s claim of “more than all combined” is not supported by raw data.
He did concede that if one compared “first two years” of each president, Tinubu’s might lead, but that’s a projection, not a settled fact. He urges Reno to stick to facts.
Fact Check: Emeka is largely accurate. Official figures show Tinubu has not surpassed Buhari’s total in two years. He correctly notes World Bank data and DMO releases on loans.
His tweet also highlights the important caveat: a naïve dollar comparison ignores the currency effect.
Emeka’s suggestion that Tinubu could catch up if borrowing continues is plausible – but as of now, “more than all combined” is untrue.
Ebi Bomodi (@BomodiEbi) – Economist/activist. He challenged Emeka’s logic: If Tinubu borrowed “$21bn” domestically, how did external debt fall from $108bn to $94bn?
He pointed out Emeka basically agreed with Omokri by acknowledging the $14bn drop. His stance was that Obi’s core point (debt surged) stands.
Fact Check: Ebi’s confusion is understandable but stems from mixing units. Tinubu didn’t borrow $21bn externally; the $21bn figure was domestic. The external debt “drop” is again due to exchange rates, not lower loans.
Both Emeka and Reno note the foreign-debt drop; Ebi sees it as confirmation of “debt reduction” and suggests Emeka “agreed with Reno.” But this is semantic – the drop in dollar figures does not imply less borrowing.
Opeyemi Adigun (@Whispering2027) – Economist/commentator. He lambasted Omokri’s “math” and emphasised that debt is repaid in naira. He broke down DMO’s figures: debt rose from ₦49.85tn → ₦97.34tn (Q3 2023) → ₦144.67tn (Dec 2024). That’s a 190% surge.
He argued this is what Nigerians feel (inflation, taxes), regardless of dollar values. He pointed out 33.7% inflation, 133m in poverty, and falling FDI, saying investors fear policy chaos more than Obi’s speech. He framed Obi as a data-driven critic and Reno as a desperate spinmeister.
Fact Check: Opeyemi’s data cites align with DMO and NBS. His emphasis on inflation (33.7% in April 2024) and poverty (133m poor) are factual. He accurately notes foreign investment slumped (e.g. FDI fell to $250m in Q1 2025).
While his tone is polemical, his facts are solid. This highlights that, regardless of numbers debate, ordinary Nigerians face real hardship.
Beyond the Tweets: Debt in Context
Let’s take a data-driven view of Nigeria’s debt, stripping out partisan spin:
Exchange Rates: On May 29, 2023 (Tinubu’s inauguration), official rate was around ₦460/$; by end-2024 it was near ₦1536/$. This floated naira tripled, making every dollar of debt roughly three times more expensive in naira. Thus “debt in dollars” can fall even if “debt in naira” soars.
Debt Composition: Nigeria’s debt is roughly balanced between domestic and external. By Q4 2024, domestic debt was ~₦74.38tn and external ~₦70.29tn.
Throughout 2023–24, the government leaned more on domestic borrowing: in Q2 2024, domestic vs external were ₦71.22tn vs ₦63.07tn (≈53% domestic). States added about ₦7–₦11tn.
In other words, about half the borrowing is internal, directly impacting local markets and inflation.
Quarterly Growth: As an example, NBS reported that Nigeria’s public debt shot from ₦49.85tn ($108.3bn) in March 2023 to ₦87.38tn ($113.4bn) in June 2023 – a 75% rise in one quarter, mostly due to securitising Ways & Means advances. By Q2 2024 it was ₦134.30tn.
These jumps came amid the naira float and fresh borrowing. Meanwhile, in $ terms the debt moved modestly: $108.3B → $113.4B → $91.35B (April 2024).
This illustrates the distortions: huge naira jumps meant little dollar change until late 2024.
Debt-to-GDP: Despite the frenzy, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio is now higher than peers. At ~52.9% of GDP in 2024, it exceeds the 2020–22 average (~40%). The IMF typically warns 70–80% for sustainability, so 53% is not yet critical by itself, but the trend is worrying.
The Political Angle
Both sides are weaponising the debt issue for political gain:
Tinubu’s camp (through Omokri and allies) portrays Obi as “fear-mongering” to scare investors. They claim debt is actually down and the economy is recovering. They point to higher FX reserves, oil production, etc., as vindication. Omokri even labels Obi a “national security threat” for “spreading panic”.
Obi and his allies insist they are exposing fiscal truth. Obi himself has argued that Tinubu’s policies (naira float, subsidy cuts) have exploded liabilities, hurting citizens. Their narrative is that official data prove mismanagement – for example, DMO figures on debt and NBS data on inflation and poverty. They accuse the ruling party of deflecting blame onto critics.
The reality likely lies between. Nigeria did borrow heavily under Tinubu, because it needed funds; but in dollar terms it did not exceed all past borrowing. The pace of borrowing (and currency devaluation) is faster than before, straining the economy.
Importantly, data show Nigerians are feeling the pinch: record inflation, massive poverty and dwindling foreign investment. These are costs of misaligned policies, whether or not a scapegoat is found.
Historical Debt Trends
Looking back, Nigeria’s public debt has grown eightfold in a decade. In 2015 it was just N12.6tn (US$65.4bn). By 2022 it was N46.25tn ($103.1bn). Now it’s roughly N144.7tn ($94.2bn).
The chart below (sourced from DMO/NBS data) illustrates the rise, with a pronounced spike under Tinubu’s first years:
Figure 1: Nigeria’s total public debt stock in naira (trillions). Data from DMO/NBS. (Source: Nigeria Debt Management Office.)
This shows debt inching up during Buhari’s tenure, then rocketing after mid-2023.
The takeaway: the growth rate of debt is much higher now, even if the absolute base was larger before.
The Impact on Nigerians and Investors
The controversy is more than politics; it has real economic implications:
Inflation and Poverty: High debt means high interest costs and limited fiscal space. Tinubu’s reforms (removing subsidies, floating the naira) were intended to help budgets, but they sparked 33–34% inflation.
Food prices are up over 40%, harming the 133 million Nigerians already classified as multi-dimensionally poor.
The recent cash transfers and salary raises show the government’s acknowledgement of hardship, but the burden remains.
Investment Flows: A shaky economy and policy unpredictability deter investors. The CBN’s Balance of Payments report shows FDI dropping to $250m in Q1 2025 (down 19%).
Portfolio investors actually pulled out a record $5bn in that quarter.
Even without Obi’s speeches, these are alarming trends for an economy desperate for capital.
Debt Sustainability: Nigeria’s external debt (only 47% of total by mid-2024) is mostly concessional or bonds. At Q2 2024 the government had $42.9bn in foreign debt.
This is far below comparators (e.g. Kenya’s external debt is ~$60bn with smaller GDP).
The bigger risk is domestic debt: currently ~₦74tn, much of it in high-interest local bonds. Rising debt service threatens to crowd out spending on health, security and infrastructure.
Figure 2: Nigeria’s Inflation vs Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2019–2024)
Conclusion: What the Numbers Tell Us
The Tinubu-Obi debt spat is loud, but the facts are clear when parsed carefully:
Tinubu has borrowed a lot – certainly more per unit time than his predecessors (the first two-year borrowing pace is higher), but not more in absolute or absolute-cumulative terms than all past presidents combined.
Buhari’s eight-year borrowing still leads in raw dollars.
Naira matters more than dollars. Nigeria’s debt pain comes from the naira depreciation and large domestic borrowing, not from some miraculous $100bn loan.
Official data show the debt in local currency has surged over ₦100tn since 2019.
Social media claims mix truth and distortion. Advocates like Omokri cite parts of the data (debt in USD) to counter critics, but ignore the bigger picture (debt in ₦, inflation).
Opponents like Obi cite parts (the steep rise in naira debt) while sometimes overreaching on comparisons.
Independent analyses (Reuters, NBS, Punch, TheCable, DMO releases) paint a consistent picture: Nigeria’s debt is high, rising fast, and straining the economy.
What Nigerians need to know: The real issue is not who’s telling the truth about who borrowed more. It’s that debt is up dramatically, inflation is sky-high, and poverty is widespread.
Voters and investors care more about whether Nigeria’s economy is stable, and whether their leaders have a credible plan to manage the debt and revive growth.
Moving forward, greater transparency would help. The Debt Management Office publishes detailed reports every quarter – citizens should demand clarity on how much is borrowed and for what projects.
Accurate data and honest analysis, not political soundbites, are what will ultimately restore confidence. As one commentator noted, whether “a man is talking sense or talking nonsense” should be decided by numbers, not noise.
Atlantic Post writers Osaigbovo Okungbowa, Taiwo Adebowale and Peter Jene contributed to this report,
