Analysis | Saraki, ‘Nicodemus’ And The Juicy Promises

By Robinson T. Sibe

There’s been a deluge of news reports in the last few days; of ‘Nicodemus’ visits to aggrieved APC members. Particularly of interest are the many “juicy promises” allegedly offered the Senate President by the President and his new party leadership.

According to news reports, one of the key promises was to return the Senate President to the number 3 position. I’m sure the SP is quite vast in this area and could tell a factory that produces juice or not.

Here’s what I would consider if I was in his position:

QUESTION 1: Do they have the capacity to guarantee him the position of Senate President?

(1) The answer is, NO! If they had such powers, he would not be Senate President in the first place. You can’t give what you don’t have. Saraki’s emergence was against the party’s position; he got elected by a handful of his party men and all of the opposition. This Strategy has worked back-to-back, across two regimes now.

(2) Historically, Saraki is not the only one that pulled a similar feat. In 2011, Rt Hon. Tambuwal emerged Speaker of HoR, against his party’s (PDP) directive. Like Saraki (will), he completed his tenure, and the PDP could do nothing about it. My projection is that the NASS in 2019 will NOT have a sweeping majority; once the majority is not so overwhelming, the Tambuwal/Saraki Strategy could easily work, and we could see the leadership produced yet again from a coalition of the Minority and the “renegade” minority of the majority.

QUESTION 2: Do they have the numbers to guarantee such?

(3) To stand a chance of guaranteeing who becomes the Senate President, they first have to win the majority, and hope against (1) and (2) above. As things stand today, none of the two big parties can be too sure of that. Every analysis in that regard is mere political permutations, and wishful “juice”.

QUESTION 3: Should they be trusted?

(4) Saraki has in the last 3 years faced so many battles from within. When it’s not CCB Trial, he’s being humiliated with all sorts of allegations, including alleged connections with bank robbers. He battled through these, and defeated them via the apex court ruling recently. To now concede to fanciful promises to a group that he alleged to have persecuted him in the last 3, and which he roundly defeated, is not politically expedient. Like Murphy’s law states, everything that has the propensity to go wrong, will go wrong. They’ve showed such sustained propensity in the wrong direction, so why should he trust them? He should be the one promising them “juice”, not vice versa; he owns the “juice factory” currently.

Finally, let me end with a quote from that encounter between our Lord Jesus Christ and his nocturnal visitor, the Pharisee named Nicodemus: “The wind blows where it chooses, and you hear the sound of it, but you do not know where it comes from or where it goes.”. ~ John 3:8. Power is like the wind in this scripture; it blows where it chooses. Power comes from God. Any juicy promises at this stage lacks “juice”. Pure Bobo Juice.

Robinson T. Sibe is a Software Engineer, Geospatial Expert, Political Analyst & Strategic Communications Expert