Veteran political strategist Mark Olise warns that Nigerians too often indulge the “blame game” instead of sober analysis. Critics of President Tinubu point to the recent flood of defections from opposition parties to the ruling APC and cry “one-party state.”
Civic groups like CHRICED describe this trend as a “dangerous sign of creeping dictatorship.” They note that governors from Delta, Enugu, Akwa Ibom, and Rivers have abandoned their mandates. But APC officials scoff at such claims.
National Secretary Ajibola Basiru dismisses them as “odious.” He insists Nigeria is still a multiparty democracy. APC governs twenty-seven states. PDP, APGA, NNPP, and Accord each hold governorships.
Which view is closer to reality? Rather than reflexively blaming Mr Tinubu or anyone else, Olise urges a deeper look. As he muses, pointing fingers is easy, because it “absolves one of the rigour of deep thinking, self-discipline and personal accountability.”
In other words, do defections signal an onslaught on democracy, or do they reflect something about the opposition parties themselves?
Defections: Realignment or Crisis?
The numbers are indeed startling. By late 2025, at least five PDP governors had dumped their party for the APC. This included Delta’s Sheriff Oborevwori and his predecessor Ifeanyi Okowa. It also included Governors Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Douye Diri (Bayelsa), and Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers). Legislators and thousands of party members have also crossed over.
CHRICED’s Ibrahim Zikirullahi argues that most of these moves were driven not by ideology. They were motivated by “political pressure, inducements and the quest for personal survival” ahead of the 2027 polls. From this perspective, defections look like classic political realignment or patronage-seeking, not some constitutional coup.
Nonetheless, the optics are troubling. Defecting politicians often cite a “sinking PDP” or the benefits of alignment with the federal government. Opposition supporters counter that voters never chose APC candidates, so these switchers are betraying mandates.
Recent court battles (like Fubara v Rivers Assembly and others) attest that Nigeria’s anti-defection laws are tense flashpoints. In practice, however, many defections go unchecked, deepening fears that the ruling party may soon dominate every level of government.
Despite the alarm, Olise’s point resurfaces: why are so many politicians defecting? If the APC’s agenda truly was radically different, one might expect a clear left-right clash.
Instead, a growing body of research shows Nigeria’s main parties share remarkably similar economic visions. A 2024 study in the Journal of Modern African Studies finds that today’s governing parties are “largely unanimous in the enunciation of their economic visions”.
In fact, scholar Sa’eed Husaini observes that APC and PDP have “converged ideologically at the centre,” embracing the same post–Cold War neoliberal consensus.
In plain language, all the big parties still favour a big-state approach. They support heavy subsidies, large-scale projects, and top-down planning. They do this rather than championing smaller government and market-led growth.
Olise calls this “the big government model,” and Nigerians know its failures well. Years of bloated budgets, inefficient ministries and election-year palliatives have left little to show.
For example, a recent World Bank report warns that Nigeria wastes roughly one-third of its public investment to inefficiency. Many projects become costly “white elephants” – extensive spends with little economic return.
Meanwhile the private sector underperforms. A Nigerian Economic Summit report notes businesses face weak investment, insecure conditions, and poor infrastructure. As a result, “operational inefficiencies… and constrained productivity” plague the economy.
Indeed, Nigeria ranks only about 131st globally on the World Bank’s ease-of-doing-business index – hardly a laissez-faire paradise.
- Inefficient spending: Over one-third of Nigeria’s public funds yield no return, often financing high-cost projects that underdeliver.
- Stunted enterprise: The private sector “struggled to expand” its capacity, hampered by bureaucratic red tape, foreign-exchange shortages and insecurity.
- Tough business climate: A low ease-of-doing-business rank (around 131st) reflects how regulation and uncertainty discourage entrepreneurship.
- Eroding freedoms: Heavy state control also seeps into civic life. Amnesty International warns that fundamental rights – especially free expression and media freedom – “are routinely violated” in Nigeria. These aren’t trivial complaints: when opposing voices are muted, democracy as we know it indeed begins to wither.
A new politician or party seeking office faces significant limitations. Together, these factors give them little choice but to join the ruling APC or a similar status quo bloc. After all, why swim against the current when all parties tell voters essentially the same story?
Olise’s conclusion is stark. No real alternative is offered. As a result, defections will continue. The “blame game” becomes a handy scapegoat for systemic failure.
Rethinking the Opposition: A Clear Alternative
So how can Nigeria’s opposition avoid the one-party trap? The answer Olise suggests is obvious: they must really differentiate themselves. Rather than mimicking big-government policies, a credible alternative could champion a smaller, more efficient state and unleash the private sector.
In this vision, government spending would shrink, bureaucracy slimmed, and citizens empowered as entrepreneurs, not dependents.
A party campaigning for smaller government could promise:
- Lower cost of governance: Cutting waste and redundant agencies would free up trillions for essential services or debt relief.
- Easier business: Removing needless regulations (e.g. a true implementation of the Business Facilitation Act) would boost Nigeria’s ease-of-doing-business ranking and attract investment.
- Jobs and productivity: With a thriving private sector, the economy could finally generate millions of new jobs. Nigeria needs an estimated 27 million new jobs by 2030 just to keep unemployment stable.
- Dignity in labour: We should value hard work over handouts. Such a platform would restore pride in industry and agriculture. It would make employment a sought-after path, not a trap of patronage.
These ideas aren’t fantasy. Around the world, countries that trimmed government and liberalised markets often saw rapid growth and poverty reduction.
For example, Nigeria’s own tech entrepreneurs and farmers have long called for fewer restrictions and more market access.
A genuine pro-business opposition would harness these voices. It would propose tax reforms, property-rights protections, and investments in human capital. This approach would be instead of subsidies.
The real question is whether Nigeria’s political class can shift from playing musical chairs to offering this big-picture alternative. If not, defections will remain a fact of life.
Meanwhile, the public keeps paying a hidden cost. Politics becomes a circus of belt-tightening promises. It turns into blame-shifting postures rather than a contest of ideas.
In the end, Nigeria’s democracy won’t die overnight. CHRICED warns that it “will wither silently if defections and arrogance go unchallenged”. But it may also never flourish until Nigerians demand an opposition with real differences.
Mark Olise warns that finger-pointing is easy. Charting a new course is hard. Only when voters see a clear ideological choice – for example, one of smaller government and greater personal freedom – will the “one-party” label lose its grip and democracy regain real meaning.
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