By Mark Olise
Tinubu’s Unfulfilled Promise: The 30-Day Youth Conference That Never Was
As the curtains fall on 2024, Nigeria’s political stage remains fraught with unfulfilled promises, systemic dysfunctions, and an increasingly disillusioned populace. Among the most glaring failures of the year is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s unkept promise to convene a 30-day Youth Conference during the August #EndBadGovernance protests—a pledge that, at the time, seemed to offer hope but now stands as a stark reminder of the government’s lack of commitment to addressing the nation’s pressing issues.
The protests, which erupted in the heat of Nigeria’s deepening socio-economic crisis, were reminiscent of the #EndSARS movement of 2020. Thousands of Nigerian youths took to the streets, demanding an end to bad governance, corruption, and systemic failures. Yet, as with the #EndSARS protests, critics argue that the demands of the #EndBadGovernance movement were superficial, failing to address the root cause of Nigeria’s woes—its deeply flawed constitutional framework.
The protests were a cacophony of demands, from calls for better job opportunities to pleas for improved security. While these grievances are valid, they merely scratch the surface of Nigeria’s structural problems. The nation’s foundational issue lies in the 1999 Constitution, a document imposed without the collective input of Nigeria’s diverse ethnic nationalities. This constitution centralises power in a way that fosters systemic failures across governance, security, and economic management, creating a vicious cycle of dysfunction that no amount of surface-level reforms can resolve.
The Roots of Dysfunction: Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution
For decades, Nigeria’s political elite have sidestepped the question of constitutional reconstruction, opting instead to perpetuate a system that serves their interests. The 1999 Constitution, often criticised as a fraudulent document, has been the bedrock of Nigeria’s multi-systemic failures. It centralises power at the federal level, undermining the autonomy of states and local governments and stifling the nation’s diversity. This centralisation has led to inefficiencies in governance, enabling corruption to thrive and leaving the populace at the mercy of an unaccountable political class.
Despite these glaring issues, the #EndBadGovernance protests, much like the #EndSARS movement before it, failed to focus on constitutional reconstruction. Instead, the protests were marked by a series of demands that, while important, did not address the root cause of Nigeria’s problems. This lack of focus has led some critics to dismiss the protests as mere noise-making—an outlet for frustration rather than a strategic push for systemic change.
A Legacy of Broken Promises
President Tinubu’s response to the protests was emblematic of the government’s approach to dissent: make a promise, placate the agitators, and hope the movement fizzles out. The announcement of a 30-day Youth Conference was seen by many as a strategic move to defuse tensions. However, as the year draws to a close, there has been no progress on this promise. The conference, which was supposed to provide a platform for dialogue and solutions, has become yet another entry in Nigeria’s long list of unkept promises.
For many youth groups, the absence of the promised conference is a betrayal. These groups, some of whom placed their faith in the government’s commitment to dialogue, are now left to grapple with the reality of their unfulfilled expectations. The failure to convene the conference has also exposed the limitations of protest movements that do not address foundational issues.
The Role of Protest Leaders
One of the criticisms levelled against the #EndBadGovernance protests is the role of its leaders. In a nation where financial inducements are often used to neutralise dissent, it is not uncommon for protest leaders to be co-opted by the political elite. This phenomenon, critics argue, undermines the credibility of protest movements and allows systemic issues to persist unchallenged.
In the case of the #EndBadGovernance protests, some allege that the promise of a Youth Conference—along with the financial opportunities it might have presented—was enough to pacify certain leaders. This has led to accusations that the protests were not truly about systemic change but rather an avenue for personal gain. While these allegations remain unproven, they highlight the challenges faced by protest movements in a country where trust in leadership is at an all-time low.
A Call for Constitutional Reconstruction
As 2024 ends, the unfulfilled promise of a Youth Conference serves as a stark reminder of the need for a fundamental shift in Nigeria’s approach to governance. Advocacy groups like the Nigerian Indigenous Nationalities Alliance for Self-Determination (NINAS) have long argued that the only path to lasting change lies in addressing the root cause of Nigeria’s problems: its 1999 Constitution.
In December 2020, NINAS declared a Constitutional Force Majeure, presenting a Transitioning Template as a roadmap for constitutional reconstruction. This template calls for a halt to preparations for national elections under the 1999 Constitution and the initiation of a transitioning process that would allow Nigerians to renegotiate the terms of their union.
The Systemic Implications of the 1999 Constitution and the Perpetuation of Electoral Deception
As Nigeria grapples with the aftermath of unfulfilled promises like Tinubu’s proposed 30-day Youth Conference, the nation must confront the deeper systemic issues that perpetuate its cycle of dysfunction. At the heart of Nigeria’s woes is the 1999 Constitution—a document that not only centralises power but also entrenches inequities that stifle progress, fuel corruption, and undermine democracy.
This flawed constitutional arrangement, often described as a “military decree in civilian clothing,” has created a governance structure that is unfit for a nation as diverse and complex as Nigeria. Its centralisation of power has turned the federal government into a behemoth, controlling resources and decision-making processes that should ideally be devolved to the states and local governments. This concentration of power not only breeds inefficiency but also creates fertile ground for corruption, as access to the federal purse becomes a coveted prize for the political elite.
Elections Under the 1999 Constitution: A Charade of Democracy
The 1999 Constitution’s flaws are perhaps most glaring in Nigeria’s electoral processes, which have become a charade of democracy. Elections under this framework are less about the will of the people and more about the perpetuation of a system that rewards those who can manipulate the process to their advantage. From vote-buying to ballot box snatching and the use of state apparatus to intimidate opponents, Nigeria’s elections are often marred by irregularities that undermine their legitimacy.
Moreover, the focus on elections as a means of change distracts from the urgent need to address the foundational issues embedded in the constitution. Every election conducted under the 1999 Constitution serves to renew its life, thereby perpetuating the systemic dysfunctions it enables. This cyclical process ensures that the status quo remains unchallenged, leaving Nigerians trapped in a loop of unfulfilled promises and deteriorating living conditions.
The 1999 Constitution as an Obstacle to Development
The centralisation of power enshrined in the 1999 Constitution has had devastating consequences for Nigeria’s development. By concentrating resources and decision-making authority at the federal level, the constitution undermines the ability of states and local governments to address their unique challenges effectively. This has led to a one-size-fits-all approach to governance that is ill-suited to Nigeria’s diverse socio-economic realities.
For instance, the constitution’s centralisation of revenue allocation has created a dependency syndrome, where states rely on federal allocations rather than developing their own revenue streams. This dependency not only stifles innovation but also makes states vulnerable to the whims of the federal government, which can withhold funds as a means of exerting political control.
The result is a nation where development is uneven, with some regions lagging far behind others in terms of infrastructure, education, healthcare, and economic opportunities. This inequality fuels tensions and grievances, which in turn exacerbate Nigeria’s security challenges.
The Security Crisis and Its Constitutional Roots
Nigeria’s security crisis is another area where the flaws of the 1999 Constitution are painfully evident. The centralisation of security apparatus under the federal government has created a system where local and state authorities have limited control over the security of their jurisdictions. This lack of local control hampers the ability to respond effectively to security threats, as decisions must often go through bureaucratic channels that delay action.
Moreover, the federal government’s monopolisation of security resources has led to a concentration of power in the hands of a few, creating opportunities for abuse and corruption. The result is a security apparatus that is often more focused on protecting the interests of the political elite than on addressing the needs of ordinary Nigerians.
The Role of Youth Movements in a Dysfunctional System
The failure of youth-led protests like the #EndBadGovernance movement to address the root causes of Nigeria’s problems underscores a critical gap in the nation’s quest for change. While these movements have succeeded in drawing attention to specific issues, they often lack the strategic focus needed to bring about systemic change.
For instance, the demands of the #EndBadGovernance protests, while valid, were largely reactive rather than proactive. They addressed the symptoms of Nigeria’s dysfunctions—such as unemployment, insecurity, and corruption—but failed to tackle the root cause: the 1999 Constitution. This lack of focus allowed the government to deflect attention from the underlying issues, using superficial promises like the 30-day Youth Conference to placate the protesters.
The NINAS Transitioning Template: A Path to Genuine Change
In contrast to the piecemeal approach of youth-led protests, the Nigerian Indigenous Nationalities Alliance for Self-Determination (NINAS) has proposed a comprehensive solution to Nigeria’s problems. The NINAS Transitioning Template, unveiled during the declaration of Constitutional Force Majeure on December 16, 2020, offers a roadmap for constitutional reconstruction that addresses the root causes of Nigeria’s dysfunctions.
At the core of the NINAS Template is the recognition that Nigeria’s current constitutional framework is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed from within. Instead, the template calls for a transitioning process that involves:
- Halting preparations for national elections under the 1999 Constitution.
- Convening a Sovereign National and regional Conferences to renegotiate the terms of Nigeria’s union.
- Drafting subnational constitutions, as well as a new national constitution that reflects the aspirations of Nigeria’s diverse ethnic nationalities.
The NINAS Template represents a bold departure from the status quo, challenging Nigerians to confront the foundational issues that have plagued the nation for decades. However, its success depends on the willingness of Nigerians to prioritise systemic change over short-term gains.
The Urgency of Action
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 elections, the urgency of addressing these foundational issues cannot be overstated. Every election conducted under the 1999 Constitution not only renews its life but also entrenches the systemic dysfunctions it enables. If Nigerians are to break free from this cycle, they must demand a transitioning process that lays the groundwork for genuine constitutional reconstruction.
The Socio-Political Implications of Inaction and the Path Forward
As the year 2024 concludes, the echoes of unfulfilled promises and systemic inertia resonate louder than ever. Tinubu’s proposed 30-day Youth Conference, a hollow gesture meant to placate the masses, has become emblematic of Nigeria’s dysfunctional governance. However, the socio-political implications of failing to confront the foundational issues—chiefly the 1999 Constitution—extend far beyond the disappointment of disillusioned youth groups.
The Cost of Ignoring Structural Reform
Nigeria stands at a crossroads where the cost of inaction threatens to eclipse the fleeting hope of reform. The 1999 Constitution remains a significant barrier to national progress, anchoring Nigeria to a governance model that rewards mediocrity, stifles innovation, and exacerbates inequality. By perpetuating a centralised structure that prioritises federal control over regional autonomy, the constitution has entrenched a system of dependency and inefficiency.
This systemic failure manifests in countless ways:
- Persistent corruption that siphons resources meant for development.
- Weak institutions incapable of delivering justice or ensuring accountability.
- A fragile economy overly reliant on oil revenue, vulnerable to global shocks.
- Worsening insecurity as marginalised groups resort to violence in the face of systemic neglect.
Ignoring these issues only deepens Nigeria’s crises, creating a vicious cycle where poverty, unemployment, and insecurity feed off each other. Without structural reform, the nation risks descending into further chaos, with its youth bearing the brunt of the consequences.
The Role of International Actors
While the responsibility for Nigeria’s transformation ultimately rests with its citizens, the role of international actors cannot be overlooked. Over the years, foreign governments and organisations have provided financial aid, technical assistance, and diplomatic support aimed at addressing Nigeria’s challenges. However, these efforts often fall short because they fail to address the root causes of Nigeria’s dysfunctions.
For instance, international election observers frequently highlight irregularities in Nigeria’s electoral processes, yet their recommendations are rarely implemented. Similarly, foreign aid programmes aimed at alleviating poverty often focus on symptoms rather than root causes, reinforcing a cycle of dependency rather than fostering self-reliance.
Moreover, the international community’s reluctance to challenge Nigeria’s governance structure reflects a broader trend of prioritising stability over justice. By engaging with Nigeria’s leaders without addressing the systemic issues that enable their misrule, foreign actors risk perpetuating the very problems they seek to solve.
A Call to Action: The NINAS Template as a Roadmap for Unity
The Nigerian Indigenous Nationalities Alliance for Self-Determination (NINAS) offers a practical and transformative solution to Nigeria’s crises. Unlike piecemeal reforms that merely scratch the surface, the NINAS Transitioning Template addresses the root causes of Nigeria’s dysfunction by calling for a complete overhaul of the 1999 Constitution.
The template’s emphasis on halting preparations for the 2027 elections underscores a critical point: participating in elections under the current constitutional framework only legitimises a system that has failed Nigerians for decades. By shifting the focus from elections to constitutional reconstruction, the NINAS Template empowers Nigerians to demand systemic change rather than settling for superficial reforms.
However, the success of this initiative depends on the willingness of Nigerians to unite behind a common vision. This unity must transcend ethnic, religious, and political divides, focusing instead on the shared goal of creating a governance structure that reflects the aspirations of all Nigerians.
The Youth as Catalysts for Change
Nigeria’s youth have long been at the forefront of its struggles for justice and equity, from the #EndSARS protests to the #EndBadGovernance movement. While these efforts have often fallen short of their goals, they have demonstrated the power of collective action in challenging the status quo.
To build on this momentum, youth movements must adopt a more strategic approach that prioritises systemic change over short-term gains. This involves aligning their demands with initiatives like the NINAS Transitioning Template, which offers a clear roadmap for addressing Nigeria’s foundational issues.
Moreover, young Nigerians must recognise the importance of engaging in constructive dialogue rather than resorting to noise-making or superficial activism. By focusing their energy on advocating for constitutional reform, they can transform their frustrations into tangible progress.
A Nation at a Crossroads
As Nigeria approaches yet another election cycle, the stakes have never been higher. The choice before Nigerians is clear: continue down the path of systemic dysfunction or demand a transitioning process that lays the groundwork for a brighter future.
Tinubu’s failure to deliver on his Youth Conference promise is not just a betrayal of trust; it is a reminder of the broader failures of Nigeria’s governance system. By addressing the root causes of these failures—chiefly the 1999 Constitution—Nigerians can chart a new course that prioritises justice, equity, and accountability.
The journey toward this transformation will not be easy. It will require courage, unity, and an unwavering commitment to systemic change. But for a nation that has endured decades of misrule and mediocrity, the promise of a better future is worth the struggle.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s future hinges on its ability to confront the structural issues that have long hindered its progress. Tinubu’s broken promises and the failures of youth-led protests are symptoms of a deeper malaise that can only be addressed through constitutional reconstruction.
The NINAS Transitioning Template offers a viable path forward, but its success depends on the willingness of Nigerians to demand systemic change. As the nation stands at this critical juncture, the call to action is clear: reject the status quo, embrace unity, and fight for a governance structure that reflects the aspirations of all Nigerians.
The time for half-measures is over. The time for systemic change is now.
