A simmering power struggle within the All Progressives Congress (APC) is threatening to eclipse President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope” agenda, as ambitious northern heavyweights jostle not only for the coveted Vice-Presidential slot in 2027 but for the ultimate prize—the 2031 presidency.
What began as tea-room whispers has erupted into full-blown chaos: chairs hurled at party dignitaries, regional blocs issuing ultimatums, and secretive high-stakes negotiations across state houses.
At its heart lies a simple truth: whoever dons the VP mantle in 2027 positions themselves as Tinubu’s de facto successor, gaining unrivalled visibility, patronage networks and the legitimacy to command the APC ticket in 2031.
The Roots of the 2027 VP Scramble
Post-2023 Electoral Arithmetic
Bola Tinubu’s triumph in the February 2023 presidential election was secured by razor-thin margins across Nigeria’s diverse geopolitical zones. In the critical North-West—the largest bloc by voter population—Tinubu polled 2,652,824 votes to Atiku Abubakar’s 2,197,824, a formidable turnout that delivered nearly one-third of Tinubu’s total ballots.
Conversely, in the North-East, incumbent Vice President Kashim Shettima’s home turf, Tinubu ceded ground, losing to Atiku by over 800,000 votes.
Such uneven performances have heightened the stakes for 2027: regional powerbrokers warn that a miscalculation in the VP selection could cost the APC critical votes in 2027—and alter the power balance ahead of 2031.
The North-East Stakeholders’ Uproar
Barely a fortnight after the APC’s North-East stakeholders meeting—convened ostensibly to endorse Tinubu’s second-term ambitions—supporters of VP Shettima turned on the party’s own Vice Chairman, North-East, Mustapha Salihu, hurling chairs when he refused to rubber-stamp Shettima as the automatic running mate.
Salihu later defended his stance, insisting that pre-emptive endorsement would usurp the President’s prerogative:
“It would have been inappropriate to endorse the Vice President along with the President because it would pre-assume that he is the running mate.”
Who’s Who in the 2027 VP Contest
Four Northern Governors Eye the Seat
According to multiple APC chieftains, no fewer than four northern governors—two each from the North-East and North-West—are actively positioning for the 2027 VP slot.
These incumbents wield control over state party machinery and electoral finances, making their support indispensable.
Campaign whispers suggest promises of ministerial portfolios and federal appointments are already being dangled in return for early loyalty pledges.
The Former Speaker from Bauchi
Speculation is rife that President Tinubu is considering a Christian running mate from Bauchi State—a historic bid at religious balancing that would break the precedent set by the all-Muslim ticket of 2023.
However, party strategists warn that such a move could alienate the heavily populated North-West and North-East, where opposition figures, particularly Atiku Abubakar, have strong “homeboy” appeal.
The 2031 Presidency: The Ultimate Spoils
Why the VP Slot Is a Springboard
APC insiders concede that the real prize behind the VP tussle is the 2031 presidential ticket. “Those jostling for the VP in 2027 know that whoever holds that office will have an edge in 2031,” a senior chieftain confided on condition of anonymity.
Their logic is unassailable: incumbency advantage, national visibility and state resources underwrite a formidable campaign war chest.
El-Rufai’s Exclusion: A Case Study
The sidelining of former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai from Tinubu’s cabinet is widely attributed to fears he would leverage ministerial platforms to bolster his 2031 prospects.
El-Rufai himself accused National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu of orchestrating a smear campaign, suggesting jealousy over presidential ambitions.
Regional Blocs and Zoning Demands
North-Central’s Bold Conditions
In a dramatic Abuja press conference, North-Central stakeholders—representing Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa and Niger—demanded Tinubu sacrifice Shettima and select a running mate from their zone if he expects their backing in 2027.
They reminded the nation that North-Central has been shut out of both the presidency and vice-presidency since 1999.
Pushback from APC’s National Leadership
APC National Publicity Director Bala Ibrahim dismisses these zoning calls as “unrealistic” and premature, urging that discussions about 2027 and beyond should occur only after Tinubu’s second term.
Yet, such interventions may only fuel further resentment among aggrieved blocs.
The Role of High-Stakes Negotiations
Opposition Governors in Tinubu’s Court
In a bid to consolidate his re-election bid, Tinubu’s camp has reportedly offered lucrative inducements—ministerial slots, return tickets for sitting governors and nominative control over National Assembly elections—to opposition governors willing to defect or abstain.
This realpolitik gambit underscores the epic scale of the 2027 power game.
Social Media and Grassroots Sentiment
Meanwhile, northern influencers and grass-roots groups have turned vocal, with some activists warning Tinubu that eroding Christian and moderate Muslim support could doom the APC in key regions by 2027.
Expert Opinions: Premature or Prudent?
Academia Weighs In
- Prof. Tunde Adeniran (former Minister of Education) argues that jockeying for slots is an intrinsic feature of democratic contestation, contingent on party rules and individual agency.
- Prof. Shola Omotola (Political Science, F.U. Oye-Ekiti) contends that political seasons begin long before official timetables, with party operatives exploiting every available window to solidify support.
Civil Society and Electoral Law
Legal experts note that while the constitution vests the nominating power in the president and party organs, INEC regulations stipulate deadlines for the submission of running‐mate forms—underscoring the potential legal pitfalls of last-minute impositions.
Conclusion: A Prelude to 2031
As the APC barrel towards its convention, the battle for Tinubu’s running mate in 2027 has transcended mere ticket‐balancing. It is the opening salvo in a much larger campaign for the 2031 presidential succession.
Chairs thrown in Gombe, regional communiqués in Abuja, clandestine cabinet reshuffles and offers of patronage all signal a new era of high-stakes Nigerian power politics.
For APC faithful and opposition strategists alike, the coming months will be decisive: will Tinubu’s team broker an accommodation that preserves party unity, or will the scramble for the VP slot deepen regional fissures, setting the stage for a bitter contest in 2027—and beyond?
Atlantic Post writers Osaigbovo Okungbowa, Suleiman Adamu, Taiwo Adebowale & Peter Jene contributed to this report.
