At COP31, NNPC Ltd is promoting natural gas as the centrepiece of Nigeria’s energy future. But rising gas flaring, persistent methane emissions and inadequate infrastructure expose a difficult question: can a country build its energy future around a resource it is still struggling to capture, measure and deliver?
Nigeria’s ambition to make natural gas the foundation of its long-term energy future is facing an uncomfortable environmental reality. The country continues to burn significant volumes of gas that could otherwise power industries, generate electricity and strengthen its economy.
At the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, on Tuesday, 10 November 2026, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) presented natural gas as more than a temporary solution to the country’s energy challenges.
It wants gas to become Nigeria’s destination fuel.
But that declaration raises a fundamental question for Africa’s largest economy and one of the continent’s biggest hydrocarbon producers: Is Nigeria pursuing a genuine energy transition, or attempting to give its long-term dependence on fossil fuels a more environmentally acceptable identity?
The distinction is important.
Nigeria possesses substantial natural gas reserves, yet its petroleum industry continues to struggle with gas flaring, methane emissions, insufficient pipelines and inadequate investment in infrastructure needed to capture and commercialise associated gas.
The contradiction is increasingly difficult to overlook.
Speaking during a high-level panel on decarbonising Africa’s energy value chain, Philemon Yilleng, Manager of Sustainability Strategy, Standards and Policy at NNPC Ltd, said the company had identified gas as the centrepiece of its energy transition strategy.
“Now we have been able to identify gas as our transition fuel. So for us, gas is not just a transition fuel, but our destination fuel. So we want to identify gas as a cleaner alternative for us,” he said.
The statement reveals an important shift in how Nigeria’s national oil company views its energy future.
Rather than describing gas simply as a bridge between fossil fuels and renewable energy, NNPC is positioning it as a long-term component of the country’s energy system.
That position has economic logic. It also creates environmental obligations that Nigeria cannot afford to ignore.
Nigeria’s gas wealth meets the reality of waste
Nigeria’s natural gas resources provide a compelling argument for developing the sector.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported in September 2026 that the country has more than 215 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves, placing it among the world’s major gas-holding nations.
Yet possessing enormous reserves does not automatically translate into reliable energy supplies, industrial development or reduced emissions.
The country’s gas-flaring record illustrates the problem.
According to the US Energy Information Administration’s November 2025 Nigeria country analysis, Nigeria flared approximately 229 billion cubic feet of natural gas in 2024, representing an increase of around 12 per cent from the previous year.
The estimate placed Nigeria seventh among the world’s largest gas-flaring countries for that year. U.S. Energy Information Administration+1
The wider global picture is equally concerning.
The World Bank’s 2026 Global Gas Flaring Tracker found that worldwide gas flaring increased for the third consecutive year in 2025, reaching 167 billion cubic metres.
The wasted gas was estimated to be worth approximately $54 billion.
The World Bank identified inadequate regulation, insufficient investment, limited market infrastructure and weak implementation as major obstacles to ending routine flaring.
These findings are particularly relevant to Nigeria, where gas that could support domestic energy consumption continues to be wasted at oil-producing facilities. World Bank+1
The implications extend beyond climate statistics.
Captured associated gas could support electricity generation, manufacturing, fertiliser production, petrochemicals and other industrial activities.
Nigeria’s energy challenge is therefore not simply about increasing production. It is also about ensuring that existing resources reach consumers and productive businesses.
Yilleng acknowledged that the company was pursuing immediate opportunities to reduce its environmental footprint.
“Now, for us in NNPC Limited, what we have been able to do is to identify the basics. And that’s what I think you’re trying to ask me. What are the basics? Try to take advantage of the quick wins, such as maintaining emission reduction, flare recovery, and as well as optimise our processes,” he stated.
These are sensible priorities.
The more difficult question is whether Nigeria can translate them into measurable reductions across its entire oil and gas value chain.
The methane problem behind Nigeria’s gas ambitions
One of the biggest weaknesses in portraying natural gas as a cleaner energy solution is the tendency to concentrate on what happens when the fuel is burned while overlooking emissions generated during extraction, processing and transportation.
Methane is central to that problem.
Although methane remains in the atmosphere for a shorter period than carbon dioxide, its warming impact is considerably more powerful over the short term.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that fossil methane has approximately 82.5 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. IPCC
Natural gas can deliver significant emissions reductions when it replaces coal in electricity generation. The International Energy Agency estimates that natural gas produced approximately 35 per cent fewer lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions than coal on average in 2024.
But the IEA also stresses that methane leakage is critical to determining the environmental advantage of gas.
Comparing gas with coal alone is not sufficient to establish its sustainability. IEA+1
For Nigeria, the methane situation demands particular attention.
The IEA’s 2026 Global Methane Tracker identifies Nigeria as the largest source of fossil-fuel methane emissions in sub-Saharan Africa.
More troublingly, it estimates that upstream methane intensity in Nigeria is between two and three times the global industry average.
This means Nigeria’s petroleum industry is confronting a serious emissions-efficiency problem precisely when its national oil company is seeking to expand the strategic importance of gas. IEA+1
Consequently, capturing flared gas without addressing methane leaks, venting and inefficient production processes would deliver only a partial environmental improvement.
The country’s transition ambitions must encompass the entire gas value chain.
The credibility test: Can NNPC actually measure its emissions?
Another important issue emerging from the COP31 discussion is the credibility of emissions reporting.
Yilleng disclosed that NNPC had developed policies and frameworks to guide its sustainability programme, including a measurement, reporting and verification system intended to monitor emissions and measure progress.
He also emphasised that sustainability considerations must become embedded in operational decisions rather than remain commitments made by senior management.
“Our strategy is decarbonisation, which is an element of energy transition. So what that speaks to us is that we will be doing in our business, not as usual, but ensuring that we reduce our emissions and leave the environment better than how we met it,” he said.
The company is also working with regulators, joint venture partners and financiers to integrate sustainability into its operations.
“We are collaborating with our regulators, our joint venture partners, and our financiers also, to ensure that we integrate sustainability in our businesses and operations, so that it’s not just going to be a buy-in from the board alone, but to demonstrate that even at the bottom, at the operational level, we are putting things in place to ensure that we deliver that much-expected value,” he added.
These commitments are significant, but the quality of the underlying data will determine whether they can withstand independent scrutiny.
Stephanie Saunier, Managing Director of Carbon Limits, acknowledged the progress NNPC had made in developing its emissions measurement, reporting and verification system over the preceding 12 to 18 months.
She nevertheless indicated that the company needed to move further towards actual field measurements to establish the credibility of its emissions data.
Her observation is particularly important.
Emissions estimates derived from general calculations are not necessarily equivalent to measurements taken directly from operating facilities.
A credible environmental assessment requires reliable information about methane leaks, flare efficiency, venting, equipment performance and emissions across individual assets.
The regulator is moving in this direction.
In an April 2026 directive, NUPRC instructed upstream petroleum operators to adopt standardised greenhouse-gas and methane reporting procedures.
The directive requires at least IPCC Tier 2 reporting from the third quarter of 2026 and a transition to Tier 3 measurement-based systems by January 2027.
Importantly, the Commission acknowledged technical capacity limitations and infrastructure gaps affecting emissions measurement and verification.
This gives NNPC a clear regulatory timetable against which its COP31 sustainability assurances can be assessed.
The IEA also confirms that NNPC is a member of the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0, an international initiative supporting more rigorous methane measurement and reporting.
Membership creates an opportunity to demonstrate improved transparency. It does not, by itself, establish that emissions have been reduced. IEA
Gas financing cannot succeed without infrastructure
Financing was another major concern raised by Yilleng.
He argued that inadequate funding for gas development remains one of the greatest obstacles to accelerating Nigeria’s energy transition.
“For us in NNPC, I think one of the greatest barriers that I see as a gap is the identification of gas as a transition fuel. Now, what I mean by that is that there is a need for gas to be financed. Let’s have this transition financed for gas, because for us, we’ve identified gas as a cleaner alternative,” he said.
His argument highlights a structural problem.
Nigeria cannot successfully commercialise associated gas without gathering facilities, processing plants, compression infrastructure, pipelines and reliable distribution networks.
Gas stranded at remote oil-producing locations cannot automatically become electricity for households or feedstock for factories.
Celina Evbuomwan, Assistant Director and Head of Environment Management and Sustainability at NMDPRA, identified inadequate technology, insufficient financing and fragmented infrastructure around gas-producing facilities as major constraints.
She also pointed to the recently introduced National Gas Transportation Network Code as an initiative expected to improve information about gas availability, infrastructure and transportation charges.
There is an important development behind that announcement.
The underlying Nigerian Gas Transportation Network Code was originally introduced in 2020 and revised in 2024. Its second revision was unveiled on 28 October 2026 by NMDPRA.
The revised framework is designed to improve access to shared gas transportation infrastructure, clarify measurement and transportation procedures and encourage greater participation by gas shippers.
NMDPRA also reported that the earlier revision had increased network participation and reduced gas imbalances on the western network by approximately 30 per cent.
The Authority identified the OB3 pipeline, the Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System midline compressor and the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano pipeline as important projects expected to increase national gas transportation capacity from 2.2 billion cubic feet daily to 4.4 billion cubic feet when completed.
These developments offer a foundation for expanding domestic gas utilisation.
But a transportation code cannot replace the physical infrastructure required to collect gas from individual production facilities.
Nor can improved pipeline access guarantee that all captured gas will reach power plants, industrial users and households.
That distinction will be crucial in evaluating the country’s promised gas expansion.
The flare commercialisation programme faces an implementation test
Nigeria already has a framework designed to turn wasted flare gas into commercially useful energy.
The Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme seeks to attract investors and allocate flare sites to qualified third-party developers capable of capturing and utilising gas.
Its objective is to end routine gas flaring while creating commercial opportunities.
Nevertheless, implementation remains a significant concern.
In September 2026, NUPRC disclosed that 27 of the 43 flare sites originally identified for allocation had been successfully awarded.
The Commission also warned that investors failing to demonstrate adequate implementation progress could lose their permits.
NUPRC Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan explained that the Commission evaluates awardees after one year and may revoke permits where progress is insufficient.
“Where there is insufficient progress, the Commission will take appropriate regulatory action, including revocation of the award where necessary,” she said.
The warning raises an important question for Nigeria’s gas investment strategy.
How many awarded sites have progressed from contractual commitments to functioning gas capture facilities?
How much gas is actually being recovered?
How much has reached commercial users?
And how much investment has translated into verifiable environmental improvements?
The number of awarded sites is a useful administrative indicator. It is not evidence that the associated emissions have already been eliminated.
These are precisely the figures Nigeria needs to make publicly available.
NNPC has demonstrated that flare reduction is achievable
There are nevertheless examples of progress within NNPC’s operations.
In February 2024, NNPC announced that its joint venture with TotalEnergies had eliminated routine gas flaring across its four operated leases.
The company reported that the final routine flare volume of approximately 12 million standard cubic feet of gas daily had been eliminated at OML 100.
It estimated the resulting emissions reduction at approximately 341,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually.
The achievement followed earlier zero-routine-flaring milestones at OML 99, OML 102 and OML 58. NNPC
This demonstrates that flare elimination is technically achievable within Nigeria’s petroleum industry.
It also provides a practical example of what collaboration, investment and operational changes can deliver.
Nevertheless, one successful joint venture project cannot establish that the national oil company’s entire portfolio has achieved comparable results.
What is needed is a consolidated assessment of emissions across NNPC-operated and jointly operated assets.
Such a report should identify the volumes of gas flared, captured, reinjected, utilised or sold, alongside independently verifiable emissions reductions.
NNPC’s own sustainability strategy identifies eliminating routine flaring and reducing methane emissions as near-term priorities, while listing operational electrification, renewable energy integration and carbon capture among its longer-term measures.
The company has therefore acknowledged the importance of moving beyond conventional hydrocarbon operations. The challenge is demonstrating how quickly those ambitions will become measurable results. NNPC
Africa’s energy transition needs more than a gas investment argument
Anish De, KPMG’s Partner and Head of Energy and Natural Resources for Africa, also highlighted the importance of national oil companies in providing infrastructure, mobilising investment and deploying technology to accelerate the continent’s energy transition.
His observation points to the wider significance of the Nigerian debate.
African countries face a complicated energy dilemma.
Many possess substantial natural resources but lack the infrastructure and financing necessary to transform them into reliable and affordable energy.
Nigeria is a particularly important example because its enormous gas reserves coexist with electricity shortages, industrial energy constraints and persistent environmental problems in oil-producing communities.
There is a legitimate argument that developing natural gas could support industrialisation, electricity generation and employment.
But the argument becomes less convincing when environmental costs are ignored or when investment in gas infrastructure is allowed to crowd out renewable energy development.
The idea of a just energy transition must include reliable power, affordable energy, economic opportunity and environmental protection.
It cannot simply mean extending the commercial life of existing fossil-fuel infrastructure.
Nigeria’s international commitments already provide measurable benchmarks.
The country’s current Nationally Determined Contribution includes a commitment to eliminate routine gas flaring by 2030 and reduce fugitive methane emissions from the oil and gas industry by 60 per cent by 2035, with a further 95 per cent reduction by 2050.
Nigeria has also committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2060. IEA+1
These targets should guide how gas projects are financed, evaluated and approved.
The unanswered question behind NNPC’s destination fuel
Yilleng’s declaration at COP31 represents an important statement of intent from Nigeria’s national oil company.
But the language of transition must eventually be supported by evidence.
For investors, the central question is whether Nigerian gas projects can become commercially viable while meeting increasingly demanding environmental standards.
For international climate negotiators, the question is whether Nigeria can demonstrate that expanding gas utilisation will produce genuine emissions reductions rather than simply relocate emissions from flaring sites to other parts of the value chain.
For communities living close to oil and gas infrastructure, the issue is even more immediate.
They need cleaner air, safer production facilities, reliable energy and measurable improvements in their environment.
Those benefits cannot be delivered through sustainability declarations alone.
NNPC must demonstrate how much gas it is recovering, how much methane it is preventing from escaping, how much electricity and industrial energy its investments are delivering and whether its emissions are actually declining.
It must also demonstrate that its long-term gas ambitions are compatible with the country’s climate commitments.
At COP31, Nigeria is asking the international community to recognise natural gas as an important part of Africa’s energy future.
That argument deserves serious consideration.
But a country cannot convincingly present gas as its environmental solution while leaving the performance of its existing gas economy insufficiently demonstrated.
Nigeria’s most persuasive climate achievement will not be the volume of gas it promises to produce. It will be the volume it stops wasting, the methane it prevents from escaping and the measurable improvements it delivers to the lives of its people.
Until those results become independently verifiable, the declaration that gas is Nigeria’s destination fuel will remain a promise awaiting its most important test.
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