LAGOS, Nigeria (Atlantic Post) — Amid a surge in violence and political tension, calls are increasing for Nigeria to overhaul its 1999 constitution. Some are even suggesting partition.
NINAS convenor Tony Nnadi asserts that recent U.S. actions aim to force a “dismantling and reconfiguration” of Nigeria’s unitary system. These actions include Country of Particular Concern (CPC) sanctions and even military threats.
He argues the constitution was effectively “caliphate-imposed”. It empowered a “Fulani conquest onslaught”. This has left the predominantly Christian Middle-Belt “slaughtered, dislodged and displaced”.
This report examines Nnadi’s claims in context. It looks at the scale of Nigeria’s violence. It also considers the history of its federal system and what Washington’s posture really implies.
Alarming Violence and Displacement in Nigeria
Independent data show Nigeria’s security crisis is severe. In 2021 alone, multiple trackers logged around 8,000–8,300 deaths from political and ethnic violence in the first nine months.
One Christian-run NGO counted 4,400 Christians killed by September 2021. Another estimate put more than 52,000 Christians slain for their faith over 14 years (and tens of thousands of Muslims), with millions displaced.
In a mid-2025 UN analysis, Nigeria’s population was cited at 235 million, with 53% Muslim and 45% Christian. It is a huge, diverse society. However, ongoing clashes have left millions starving and uprooted.
These include communal battles. One report describes “deadly clashes” between mostly Muslim nomadic herdsmen. Largely Christian farming communities in the Middle Belt are also involved.
The toll is urgent: At least 8,281 deaths from violence in Jan–Sep 2021 (according to one tracker). 4,400 Christian victims recorded as killed through Sep 2021. Millions displaced by banditry and raids. Hundreds of villages razed and tens of thousands kidnapped in recent years (government and NGO data).
These figures support Nnadi’s alarm that the conflict is not mere “pastoral clashes” but a widespread ethnoreligious crisis. Indeed, a 2019 UN rapporteur described Nigeria as a “pressure cooker of internal conflict.” The rapporteur warned that unaddressed violence could spill over regionally.
US Pressure and the “Genocide” Debate
In this context, the Trump administration took an unusually assertive stance. In late 2025, President Trump re-designated Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) for religious freedom violations.
He even announced his order to the Pentagon. They were to prepare for “fast” military action. This would occur unless Nigeria curbed attacks on Christian communities.
Congress held hearings where members used stark language. Rep. Chris Smith (R–NJ) lamented that the “systematic slaughter of Christians in Nigeria’s Middle Belt is a genocide… a moral catastrophe that demands our immediate attention”.
Smith praised Trump’s CPC move as a signal that the U.S. would “no longer stand by” while “our brothers and sisters in Christ are martyred”.
Other lawmakers similarly questioned Nigerian authorities’ response and even proposed arming militias for self-defense or invoking regional autonomy for Christians.
These developments have alarmed Abuja. Nigeria’s Information Minister insisted on Al Jazeera that attacks “don’t discriminate” between Muslims and Christians. He noted that over 13,500 militants have been killed since 2023.
His government dismissed the U.S. claims as based on “misinformation or faulty data.” It states that Nigeria actually welcomes foreign help against terrorism. This is as long as its sovereignty is respected.
In November 2025 the Nigerian government publicly called the CPC action and threats “misinformation”. They listed counter-terror successes, including 13,500 insurgents killed and 17,000 suspects arrested. They argued that violence affects “both Christians and Muslims”.
Yet many observers see Abuja’s narrative as insufficient. Human rights analysts and some U.S. officials emphasize that Nigeria’s military and police have struggled to curb the violence. Local victims often view this violence as targeted.
As Al Jazeera reported, millions are now desperate in the Middle Belt, and “violence has severely affected the economy”.
The Nigerian diaspora and opposition figures often use terms like “genocide” or “Islamic invasion.” These expressions echo Nnadi’s rhetoric to describe the crisis. Even some leaders from other parts of Nigeria have raised the spectre of secession.
A coalition of Yoruba chiefs wrote to President Tinubu in April 2024. They demanded an independent Yoruba state. They accused “elite Fulani politicians” of seeking a “Fulani homeland” and making Nigeria “ungovernable”.
Observers note this is “the inevitable result of the state’s failure to contain worsening radical Islamic violence”. Nnadi focuses on the constitutional root of the crisis. This approach follows the trend of framing the conflict in terms of faith and identity.
The Constitutional Question
Nnadi argues that Nigeria’s 1999 constitution is itself a core problem. Legally, Nigeria is a federal republic. Yet, its constitution was imposed by military governments. Vestiges of strong central control remain. In practice, Abuja retains huge powers – a fact long criticized by analysts.
A Council on Foreign Relations blog notes that since 1966, “every constitution has given broad powers to the central government. These powers are both broad and exclusive. This is to the detriment of its constituent units.” Military regimes effectively made Nigeria a de facto unitary state under the guise of federalism.
Even the 1999 constitution was crafted at the end of military rule. It preserved many centralised features. Oil revenues, policing, and security are managed from Abuja. This management leaves states dependent on federal funds. Experts say this creates a “gargantuan political entity” that stifles local initiative.
This context helps explain why Nnadi and others call for “reconfiguration” or even confederation. He explicitly demands “dismantling and reconfiguration of that caliphate-imposed unitary constitutional architecture”. He accuses the constitution of incapacitating states where violence is worst.
The CFR analysts agree the system is lopsided. Many have urged that Nigeria “ditch its unitary preoccupation. It should equitably distribute power to the states if it hopes to function.
In other words, they argue, giving states fiscal autonomy and policing authority could defuse conflict. Such proposals find some resonance: for years there have been calls across Nigeria to restructure the federal arrangement.
Yoruba, Igbo, and Northern groups have all, at times, agitated for more devolution (or outright independence) as security worsens. As one commentator noted, “calls for a breakup of Nigeria are a direct response to security failure”.
Nigeria’s bloody history casts a shadow over these debates. The Biafran War (1967–1970) left roughly 2 million dead, making secession a taboo topic for decades. Yet with communal violence surging, even mainstream voices now whisper of redrawing borders.
Yorùbá intellectuals argue that a thriving economic region could prosper as an independent country.
Many analysts caution that talk of “breakup” provokes exactly the division extremists exploit. Still, Nnadi and his allies claim that Nigeria can save itself from collapse only by fundamentally rewriting the rules. They believe this includes breaking the old “one-size-fits-all” constitution.
US Moves: Overhaul or Leverage?
Does Washington truly plan to break up Nigeria? No official policy admits any intent to balkanize the country. Even proponents of sanctions couch them as tools to pressure Abuja to act.
The CPC designation can force Nigeria to address religious freedom in a non-discriminatory way (as the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom recommended).
Some U.S. legislators have floated flexible options, but mainstream proposals have focused on sanctions, security aid, and reform, not redrawing borders.
Indeed, Atlantic Post’s analysis in January 2026 notes viral clips about a congressional plan to partition Nigeria. Fact-checkers debunked these clips.
But, these rumors highlight how high the stakes feel internationally. Even if never officially pursued, the notion of a breakup looms as a dramatic remedy in some minds.
For now, the impact of U.S. pressure is concrete: it has galvanised Abuja to take the security crisis more seriously. President Tinubu has ordered intensified operations against bandits and herdsmen, and sought new partnerships (including with France and the U.S.).
Washington has begun diplomatic engagement: at the end of January 2026, a U.S.–Nigeria working group met in Abuja to discuss peace and reconciliation.
Congress is drafting aid packages tied to human rights conditions. In this sense, Nnadi may be correct that constitutional reform is on the table—though framed as a domestic Nigerian issue.Pressure to devolve power or revise the constitution may increase if unrest continues.
Conclusion
The story of Nnadi’s statement is thus entwined with real currents in Nigeria’s crisis. The data confirm that Nigeria is in deep trouble. There have been hundreds of attacks. Thousands have been killed, and millions are threatened. Even moderate voices are now calling for drastic change.
It is also true, as Nnadi claims, that the current constitutional order frustrates effective local response. At the same time, official U.S. policy stops short of advocating secession; it speaks instead of reform and protection for all citizens.
British Pulitzer winners once said journalism is literature in a hurry – here the “rush” has accelerated. Deep-rooted feuds, political patronage, religious divides and economic woes will not be solved overnight.
Both domestic actors and foreign governments are now openly discussing Nigeria’s future. Therefore, the debate over the “breakup” or “reset” of Nigeria’s union is more urgent than ever.
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