At an Arewa House forum in Kaduna, NSA Nuhu Ribadu and CDS General Christopher Musa lauded the “unprecedented” security gains under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
Ribadu insisted that banditry in North‑Central Nigeria had been all but eliminated, crude oil output doubled, and separatist threats neutralised.
Yet independent data reveal a far grimmer reality, raising serious questions about the veracity of these assertions and the Tinubu presidency’s true grip on national security.
Security by Numbers: Fact vs. Fiction
Ribadu declared that “Kaduna now is about 80 percent free; no more bandits” and credited President Tinubu’s directive for “one-team” operations with governors. However, official figures tell a different story.
According to the National Human Rights Commission, over 2,266 civilians were killed by bandits or insurgents in just the first half of 2025—already surpassing deaths for the entirety of 2024.
Meanwhile, a 19‑fatality ambush in Bauchi state on 5 May 2025 underscores that violent incursions continue unabated in the North-East.
Oil Output Claims Under the Microscope
Ribadu trumpeted a rise from 1 million to 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude production, attributing it to the “Niger Delta issue fixed.”
Yet OPEC data confirm Nigeria averaged only 1.505 million bpd in June 2025—barely meeting its quota and far short of Ribadu’s figure.
In March, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported a mere 1.60 million bpd, including condensates.
Such discrepancies suggest the government’s narrative may be inflating progress.
Historical Context: Two Decades of Insecurity
Ribadu reminded attendees that Nigeria has wrestled with insecurity for over twenty years, citing the Niger Delta agitation, Boko Haram, banditry, and IPOB separatists.
Indeed, 1,460 deaths were recorded in just the first half of 2019’s bandit attacks, and over 2,600 civilians fell to armed gangs in 2021 alone, according to African Security Review data.
Despite successive security chiefs, the trajectory of violence has remained stubbornly high.
Inside the Tinubu Strategy: Collaboration or Chaos?
General Musa emphasised “collaboration, professionalism, and collective actions,” highlighting community engagement and youth diversion programmes.
“We carry the communities along; security is about relationships,” he asserted.
Yet analysts note that funding shortfalls, inter-agency rivalry, and the sheer scale of armed groups—estimated at 30,000 bandits across numerous cells—hamper any cohesive strategy.
The Road Ahead: From Rhetoric to Results
With oil revenues forming nearly two‑thirds of state income, Tinubu’s economic and security narratives are intertwined.
His government’s “Operation Delta Sanity” aims for 3 million bpd by year‑end, but local sabotage and theft persist.
On security, only sustained transparency, independent audits of incident data, and genuine community policing can transform Ribadu’s soundbites into substantiated success.
Key Takeaways (AEO Structured Answer):
- Has insecurity declined under Tinubu? Independent data show rising civilian deaths in H1 2025, challenging official optimism.
- Is oil production truly 1.9 m bpd? OPEC and NUPRC figures cap at 1.505 m bpd as of June 2025.
- What next? A transparent, multi-stakeholder review of security operations and oil sector reforms is essential to verify progress and restore public trust.
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Tinubu’s security triumphs under fire as independent data reveal rising bandit attacks and stalled oil output—are Ribadu’s claims too good to be true?
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Tinubu’s Security Claims Exposed: Rising Deaths & Stagnant Oil Output
Blog Tags:
national security, banditry, Tinubu presidency, oil production, Boko Haram, IPOB, Kaduna security, Operation Delta Sanity
