As COP31 opens in Türkiye, billions of dollars of renewable electricity projects face connection barriers, while solar and wind power are being curtailed and fossil-fuel plants remain essential to electricity supplies. The real test of the energy transition may no longer be how much clean power countries can generate, but whether their grids can deliver it.
The global transition to renewable energy is confronting an uncomfortable contradiction. Countries are installing solar panels, constructing wind farms and announcing increasingly ambitious climate targets, yet the electricity networks connecting these investments to homes, factories and businesses are struggling to keep pace.
In some countries, renewable energy producers are being instructed to reduce electricity generation because transmission networks cannot accommodate their output. Elsewhere, renewable projects are waiting years for grid connections, while governments continue relying on coal and gas-fired power stations to meet electricity demand.
This is more than an engineering problem. It is becoming an economic, environmental and energy-security crisis that threatens to undermine the progress governments have made towards reducing fossil-fuel dependence.
As the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP31, opens in Antalya, Türkiye, on 9 November, the inadequacy of electricity infrastructure is emerging as one of the defining challenges confronting policymakers.
Türkiye is hosting the summit, while Australia is leading the formal negotiations through its Climate Minister, Chris Bowen. Running until 20 November, the conference comes at a critical moment when governments are under pressure to translate climate commitments into practical investments and measurable emissions reductions.
The uncomfortable question confronting delegates is whether countries can achieve their renewable energy ambitions without first rebuilding the electricity systems that must carry that energy.
The world is generating clean energy faster than it can deliver it
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has identified a growing mismatch between renewable electricity expansion and investment in electricity networks.
According to its Electricity 2026 report, more than 2,500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy, electricity storage and large-load projects, including data centres, are currently stalled in grid-connection queues worldwide.
The scale of the problem is extraordinary.
Countries and companies are investing heavily in electricity generation, but transmission and distribution infrastructure has not received comparable attention.
The IEA estimates that annual global investment in power grids currently stands at approximately $400 billion. Meeting projected electricity demand through 2030 will require this figure to increase by around 50 per cent, reaching approximately $600 billion annually.
The imbalance is reflected in investment trends. Annual spending on electricity generation has increased by almost 70 per cent since 2015, reaching approximately $1 trillion, while grid investment has grown at less than half that pace, according to figures reported by the Associated Press from IEA data.
The consequences are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Building a solar or wind project can take between one and five years. Planning, permitting and completing major electricity grid infrastructure can take between five and 15 years.
This creates a fundamental planning failure. Renewable electricity projects can be completed long before the transmission infrastructure required to transport their output is ready.
Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford University, describes the network problem as “a real bottleneck”.
He argues that governments have not prepared electricity grids adequately for the rapid expansion of renewable generation.
The implication is significant: renewable energy investment risks becoming stranded or underutilised when the infrastructure connecting it to consumers is delayed.
China’s renewable energy paradox: Clean electricity curtailed as coal remains
Few examples demonstrate the consequences of inadequate electricity system flexibility more dramatically than China.
The country has become one of the world’s largest investors in renewable energy, installing enormous volumes of solar and wind capacity.
Yet a joint analysis by Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated that China curtailed approximately 360 terawatt-hours (TWh) of wind and solar electricity during the first half of 2026.
That figure represented a 49 per cent increase compared with the same period in 2025.
The estimate includes reported and unreported curtailment, and represents electricity that could not be accommodated by the power system rather than electricity necessarily generated and subsequently discarded.
The findings reveal a particularly troubling contradiction.
China commissioned approximately 30 GW of new coal-fired power capacity in the first half of 2026, while retiring just 2.7 GW.
The research also identified long-term coal power contracts that continue to reserve substantial portions of electricity demand for conventional generators, potentially reducing the flexibility available to renewable electricity.
Coal generators are still expected to secure annual contracts covering between 60 and 70 per cent of the previous year’s delivered electricity.
Consequently, the challenge is not simply whether enough transmission lines exist. The way electricity markets operate, the contractual protection afforded to existing generators and the ability of conventional power stations to adjust output also influence how much renewable electricity can enter the system. Global Energy Monitor+1
This raises a difficult question for climate policymakers: why should governments continue expanding renewable generation if existing electricity market arrangements make it difficult for clean power to displace fossil-fuel generation?
James Abraham of New Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water argues that the transition requires a “grid transformation”.
His assessment captures the scale of the challenge. Adding renewable capacity without reforming electricity infrastructure and operating arrangements will not deliver the full emissions reductions governments expect.
India reveals another weakness: Transmission and coal flexibility
India is confronting related challenges as its renewable energy capacity expands.
Energy think tank Ember’s June 2026 analysis estimated that 2.1 TWh of renewable electricity was curtailed during the 2025–26 financial year because coal-fired generators could not reduce their output sufficiently to accommodate additional solar and wind power.
A separate Ember investigation found that transmission constraints accounted for approximately 300 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of renewable electricity curtailment during the first quarter of 2026.
The distinction is important.
Not all renewable electricity curtailment results from insufficient transmission infrastructure. Some occurs because the existing generation mix, operational requirements and electricity market arrangements cannot respond flexibly enough when renewable output increases.
Ember also identified delays affecting approximately a quarter of major inter-state transmission projects scheduled for completion by the 2026–27 financial year.
The wider lesson is that building more solar farms cannot, on its own, solve the problem.
Electricity networks must be capable of moving power across geographical regions, while conventional generators, storage systems and electricity markets must become sufficiently flexible to accommodate changes in renewable supply.
Africa’s dilemma: Building grids while millions remain without electricity
For Africa, the global grid challenge presents a different but equally urgent development problem.
While China and India are confronting difficulties integrating rapidly expanding renewable capacity, many African countries are simultaneously struggling to expand basic electricity access, strengthen existing networks and develop the infrastructure needed to support industrial growth.
The World Bank estimates that approximately 560 million people in sub-Saharan Africa were living without electricity in 2024.
Its Mission 300 initiative, developed with the African Development Bank and other partners, aims to connect 300 million people across the continent to electricity by 2030.
Achieving this requires investment in generation, transmission, distribution, renewable energy, decentralised electricity systems and utility reform. World Bank
For Nigeria, this challenge has particular significance.
The country’s electricity ambitions cannot be measured simply by the amount of additional generation capacity installed. The ability to transmit and distribute available electricity reliably, alongside the expansion of decentralised renewable energy, will determine whether additional capacity translates into better electricity access for households and businesses.
The World Bank’s $750 million Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES) programme is designed to deliver new or improved electricity access to 17.5 million people in Nigeria.
By September 2026, approximately 8.2 million people had been connected under the programme, according to the World Bank.
The initiative demonstrates why decentralised electricity solutions, including mini-grids and standalone renewable systems, are important in countries where extending conventional networks to every underserved community remains difficult.
But distributed generation cannot eliminate the need for stronger national transmission infrastructure.
Nigeria and other African economies will need to pursue both approaches: expand access through decentralised systems while strengthening the wider electricity networks required to support growing industrial and commercial demand.
The United Nations’ new grid initiative: What will it actually finance?
Recognising the growing infrastructure gap, the United Nations launched the Global Grids Accelerator in September 2026.
The initiative is intended to accelerate investment in electricity infrastructure across Africa and Southeast Asia by helping governments transform electricity plans into projects that can attract financing and move towards implementation.
Announcing the initiative, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: “Grids are the arteries of the energy transition.”
The accelerator will work with governments, development institutions, investors, utilities and technical organisations to support project preparation, policy development, financing coordination and implementation.
But there is an important distinction that deserves attention.
The Global Grids Accelerator is not a new financing institution or a dedicated multibillion-dollar funding facility.
Its stated purpose is to coordinate existing expertise, financing partners and implementation resources while helping countries develop viable infrastructure projects.
That may help address the shortage of well-prepared investments. It does not, by itself, guarantee that the money required to build transmission lines, substations and regional interconnections will be available.
The initiative’s success will therefore depend on whether it can move beyond coordination meetings and produce bankable projects that attract affordable capital and are actually completed.
For countries facing high borrowing costs, weak utility finances and competing development priorities, that distinction matters.
The International Energy Agency has warned that the global grid system will require extensive expansion and refurbishment, while developing economies will need significantly more public and private capital to meet electricity demand.
The energy-security argument is becoming harder to ignore
The urgency of grid investment is no longer restricted to climate negotiations.
The conflict in the Middle East and disruption to fuel supply routes have exposed the vulnerability of economies dependent on imported fossil fuels.
Southeast Asia is particularly exposed.
The IEA’s Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2026 estimates that, before the latest crisis, approximately 60 per cent of the region’s crude oil imports and a third of its gas imports came from the Middle East.
The resulting disruption has placed energy security, affordability and supply diversification higher on governments’ agendas.
Renewable electricity offers an opportunity to reduce exposure to international fuel markets. But that advantage depends on the ability to transport, store and distribute electricity reliably.
Gahee Han of the Seoul-based nonprofit Solutions for Our Climate argues that without grid improvements, parts of Asia will have “no choice but to rely” on conventional power stations.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is therefore pursuing an interconnected regional electricity network that could allow countries to exchange electricity more easily.
Although the ASEAN Power Grid remains a developing project, the ambition is to strengthen regional electricity trade and make countries less vulnerable to individual supply disruptions.
Abdul Razib Dawood, executive director of the ASEAN Centre for Energy, believes the crisis presents an opportunity for closer regional cooperation.
“You need your neighbours,” he said.
The underlying principle could also prove important for Africa, where stronger regional electricity connections could help countries share available generation resources and reduce dependence on isolated national systems.
The solutions exist. The challenge is delivering them.
The global grid problem does not necessarily require every country to replace its entire electricity network.
Several technologies and regulatory reforms could improve existing infrastructure while major construction projects progress.
One important opportunity is grid-enhancing technology.
Digital monitoring systems can assess how much electricity transmission lines and transformers can safely accommodate under changing operating conditions.
Dynamic line rating, for example, allows operators to adjust the permitted capacity of transmission lines according to real-time conditions rather than relying exclusively on conservative fixed ratings.
Advanced power-flow controls can also redirect electricity away from congested transmission routes towards infrastructure with available capacity.
The IEA estimates that a combination of grid-enhancing technology and more flexible connection agreements could unlock approximately 1,200–1,600 GW of advanced-stage projects currently waiting in grid-connection queues.
This includes an estimated 750–900 GW that could be connected through flexible, non-firm agreements, under which generators accept certain limitations on their output when networks become congested.
A further 450–700 GW could potentially be enabled through grid-enhancing technology and other infrastructure improvements.
These measures would not eliminate the need for new transmission lines, but they could allow electricity networks to accommodate more projects while larger upgrades are completed.
Battery storage is another important component.
Instead of curtailing excess solar electricity during periods of high generation, grid-scale batteries can store it and release it when demand rises.
Stronger regional interconnections, improved electricity market rules, smart distribution networks and better demand management could further increase the amount of renewable energy countries can use.
But these solutions require more than technological innovation.
Governments must improve electricity market regulation, strengthen utility finances, prioritise transmission investment and establish transparent rules for connecting generators to the network.
They must also ensure that grid expansion benefits consumers rather than becoming another expensive infrastructure programme with limited improvements in electricity reliability.
COP31’s real test is whether governments will finance the infrastructure
COP31 will produce another round of climate discussions, investment announcements and political commitments.
Yet the credibility of the global energy transition will increasingly depend on what happens after the speeches.
Selwin Hart, special adviser to the UN Secretary-General on climate action, has called for a “massive scaling up of investments into grids” if the world is to meet its climate, energy and development goals.
That demand reflects a problem governments can no longer afford to postpone.
A country may announce ambitious solar and wind targets, attract international investors and approve billions of dollars in renewable energy projects. But without the transmission infrastructure, storage capacity and market reforms required to use that electricity, much of the investment will fail to achieve its intended economic and environmental value.
The issue is particularly serious for developing economies, where electricity shortages already undermine manufacturing, agriculture, healthcare, education and employment.
There is also a risk that delays will strengthen the position of existing fossil-fuel generators. When renewable electricity cannot reach consumers, governments and utilities may continue depending on coal and gas to provide reliable supply.
The global energy transition therefore faces a test that cannot be solved by installing more solar panels or announcing higher renewable energy targets.
It requires a fundamental change in how countries plan, finance and operate their electricity systems.
The world has begun building the energy system of the future. But it is discovering that the wires connecting that future to ordinary people have been left behind.
At COP31, the most important climate commitment may not be how many renewable power plants governments promise to build.
It may be whether they are finally prepared to build the grids that make those promises useful.
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