Amid ₦2.4 trillion PMS imports, oil titans clash with Dangote’s refinery over dominance in Nigeria’s downstream sector—an explosive showdown unfolds.
A fierce tug-of-war has erupted between Nigeria’s major oil marketers and the colossal Dangote Refinery as both jostle for supremacy in the downstream sector. Despite local capacity surging to 650,000 barrels per day, marketers imported an astounding 2.57 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in just 70 days—spending an estimated ₦2.42 trillion at ₦948 per litre—underscoring deep-seated resistance to local refining.
Aliko Dangote claims entrenched cabals and international oil companies have sabotaged crude supply and withheld product purchases to derail his $20 billion refinery, a fight he vows to win.
Yet data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reveal petrol imports have plunged from 44.6 million L/day in August 2024 to 14.7 million L/day in April 2025—evidence that local output is reshaping supply dynamics.
Stakeholder voices—from IPMAN to DAPPMAN—warn of monopoly risks even as they rally around healthy competition. This report, grounded in extensive research and industry data, dissects the high-stakes battle threatening to redefine Nigeria’s energy future.
Despite Dangote Refinery ramping up production, oil marketers imported 2.57 billion L of PMS between 1 March and 9 May 2025—755.7 million L in March (25.19 million L/day) and 1.47 billion L in April—highlighting sustained dependence on foreign supply.
The first ten days of May saw an additional 331.33 million L landed, with importers spending roughly ₦2.42 trillion, adding to ₦4.51 trillion shelled out between October 2024 and February 2025.
Alhaji Aliko Dangote publicly lamented sabotage by entrenched interests resisting local refining, accusing international oil companies of denying crude supply even as domestic obligations demand local processing.
He warned that mafias used to counting “good money” from subsidies would not welcome the end of lucrative import margins and vowed to prevail: “I am ready and 100 per cent sure I will win at the end of the day.”
Dangote Refinery has approached the Federal High Court to block NMDPRA from issuing import licences to marketers, challenging the regulator’s authority under the Petroleum Industry Act—an injunction yet to be ruled upon.
Meanwhile, Reuters reports NNPC Ltd’s bid to dismiss Dangote’s suit was rejected, allowing the legal contest to continue unabated.
NMDPRA data show daily PMS imports plunged from 44.6 million L in August 2024 to 14.7 million L by mid-April 2025—a 67 percent drop attributed to enhanced output from Dangote, Port Harcourt, and modular refineries.
NNPCL itself has reduced foreign purchases, sourcing directly from Dangote, signalling a seismic shift in procurement patterns.
Stakeholders are sharply divided over the battle for Nigeria’s downstream dominance, with IPMAN lauding Dangote’s “pro-people” approach while PETROAN and DAPPMAN warn of emerging monopolistic threats.
Despite a 67 percent plunge in daily petrol imports—from 44.6 million L in August 2024 to 14.7 million L by April 2025—courtesy of surging local output, marketers still spent ₦2.42 trillion on 2.57 billion L of PMS in 70 days, underscoring lingering reliance on foreign supply.
The regulatory fracas—Dangote’s injunction to curb import licences and NMDPRA’s licensing spree for modular refineries—marks a pivotal policy juncture for Nigeria’s energy security.
As crude-for-naira deals tilt the playing field, the imperative for transparent regulation, competitive access, and phased import reductions has never been more urgent.
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has thrown its weight behind Dangote, hailing his refinery’s naira-for-crude pricing as “pro-people” and emblematic of free-market competition.
Its spokesperson, Chinedu Ukadike, emphasised that resistance from established importers is a predictable backlash when a superior product disrupts entrenched business models.
Meanwhile, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association (PETROAN) urged all parties to eschew discord and allow factual debate to shape a level playing field.
DAPPMAN sounded the alarm over Dangote’s market ascendancy, warning that unchecked dominance could destabilise prices and supply chains.
Executive Secretary Olufemi Adewole dismissed “cabal” rhetoric but highlighted “vested interests” among private depot owners who fear losing returns on decades of investment.
He also refuted claims of a PMS boycott, noting that independent marketers have lifted hundreds of thousands of tonnes of AGO and Jet A1 from the refinery, pending final clearance on PMS offtake modalities.
PETROAN has accused Dangote of leveraging substandard-product allegations to suppress competitors and pursue monopoly.
The association warned that sudden price slashes post-gantry have inflicted “billions of naira” in losses, threatening further divestment and job cuts if market volatility persists.
It champions a multiplicity of supply sources—local refineries, modular units, NNPC bulk purchases, and continued strategic imports—to safeguard consumers and stimulate healthy competition.
The sharp decline in petrol imports—equating to a daily reduction of 30 million L—has eased foreign exchange pressure by conserving roughly $470 million monthly, but Nigeria still sources one-third of its PMS externally.
The lingering import bill of ₦2.42 trillion within 70 days highlights that, even with Dangote, Port Harcourt, and modular refineries combined, domestic output has yet to fully stabilise supply at the 50 million L/day consumption benchmark.
Dangote’s courtroom bid to block NMDPRA’s import licensing underscores tensions in crude allocation—Dangote accuses international oil companies of flouting local supply obligations enshrined in the PIA.
Ensuring consistent crude inflows under naira-for-crude and enforcing the domestic crude supply obligation are critical to securing the refinery’s throughput and safeguarding its long-term sustainability.
Policy Recommendations
1. Strengthen Regulatory Oversight
Regulators must harmonise NMDPRA’s import-licence mandates with FCCPC’s competition safeguards to prevent monopolistic practices.
A transparent, data-driven import quota system—phased down in tandem with verified local production—can bridge current shortfalls while disincentivising import-only models.
2. Ensure Fair Access to Refinery Products
Dangote and other domestic refiners should adopt non-discriminatory gantry and vessel-loading frameworks, enabling all licensed marketers equal terms for bulk and maritime procurement, reducing logistical bottlenecks that currently favour international traders.
3. Accelerate Modular Refinery Licensing and Support
Building on NMDPRA’s issuance of 30 Licences to Construct for nearly 1.23 million bpd, the Federal Government should expedite commissioning timelines, extend fiscal incentives, and facilitate financing to ramp local capacity—raising collective output closer to national demand.
4. Maintain Strategic Import Flexibility
While reducing import dependence, policymakers must retain calibrated licensing for strategic imports—particularly during maintenance shutdowns and demand spikes—to avert supply disruptions that could trigger price crises and public unrest.
The clash between oil marketers and the Dangote Refinery symbolises Nigeria’s fraught transition to energy self-sufficiency. While local refining strides offer palpable FX relief and supply gains, the spectre of monopoly and uneven market practices threatens to erode consumer trust and sectoral stability.
A calibrated policy framework—anchored in transparent regulation, equitable access, and balanced import tapering—remains imperative to secure Nigeria’s energy future, foster healthy competition, and deliver on the promise of affordable, reliable fuel for all Nigerians.
- Additional reports from Taiwo Adebowale and Peter Jene
