In a dramatic reveal, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reports a jaw‑dropping 176.7% surge in revenue under President Bola Tinubu, with receipts rocketing from ₦4.3 trillion in 2023 to ₦12.2 trillion in 2024.
Yet a closer inspection of the dollar‑equivalent figures tells a far more nuanced tale—one of a currency in free‑fall that has transformed nominal triumph into tempered success.
From Naira Gains to Dollar Pain
2022: ₦3.7 trillion → US $8.75 billion
(₦423/US$ average rate)
2023: ₦4.3 trillion → US $6.66 billion
(₦645/US$ average rate)
2024: ₦12.2 trillion → US $8.24 billion
(₦1 480/US$ average rate)
Despite the naira’s 61% plunge against the dollar in just two years, the Tinubu administration hails the 2024 outcome as proof of its “progress agenda.”
Yet, measured in hard currency, NUPRC’s 2024 haul rises by a mere 24% on 2022’s performance—not the seismic leap the headline naira‐figure suggests.
Historical Context: Why the Dollars Don’t Stack Up
Under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) era from 1999 to 2015, upstream revenues averaged around US $7 billion per annum, in spite of global oil shocks.
In contrast, the Tinubu years—dogged by “crazy forex rules” that triggered a near‑100% devaluation—have delivered only a modest increase in actual dollar terms.
Scrutiny reveals:
Naira Devaluation: Post‑June 2023 reforms saw the naira plummet by 96.7%, from around ₦470/US$ to over ₦900/US$ by year‑end.
Inflationary Pressures: Soaring domestic costs mean more naira are needed to deliver the same output.
Global Price Volatility: Brent crude oscillated between $70–$95/barrel in 2024, offering only limited upside.
Beyond the Numbers: Political Spin vs. Reality
The “coalition of hate” branding of Tinubu’s critics does little to quell questions over substance.
Agencies like the NNPC and Nigeria Customs have likewise touted record naira revenues, but external investors and bond markets remain wary.
As economist Dr Chukwuma Ibeanu warns,
“When your currency is collapsing, headline gains in local currency can be an illusion.”
What Nigerians Must Demand
Transparent FX Policy: A stable, market‑reflective exchange rate to protect real revenue gains.
Real‑Term Benchmarks: Dollar‐based targets alongside naira figures.
Independent Audits: Third‑party verification of “record” claims.
The facts are unmistakable: while Tinubu’s administration has broken naira‐denominated records, the U$ 8.24 billion reported by NUPRC in 2024 barely surpasses pre‑Tinubu levels in real terms.
Don’t be swayed by big naira headlines—dig into the dollar reality before deciding who truly delivers progress.
