This piece examines the APC press release signed by Felix Morka rejecting an Agora Policy Dialogue paper that put Nigeria’s poverty rate at roughly 63 per cent after the petrol subsidy was removed.
The ruling party calls the finding politically motivated and insists the reforms launched on 29 May 2023 were necessary to steady the economy, boost exports and rebuild buffers.
Below we test those claims against published data, the Agora presentation and other independent indicators and separate where political spin meets measurable progress.
Summary verdict
The APC is right on several headline points — reserves have risen, non-oil export earnings have strengthened and headline inflation has eased from earlier peaks. But the party understates the immediate human cost of subsidy removal and downplays distributional problems that a single fiscal move cannot fix.
Both sides have arguable points. The reforms look necessary, yet the real test of legitimacy is how well policy design and social protection cushion ordinary families.
Where the APC’s claims hold up
The party says the reforms “unshackled Nigeria from economic stagnation” and points to firmer reserves, easing inflation and stronger non-oil earnings.
Independent reports confirm external reserves recently crossed the $50 billion mark and non-oil exports reached near $6.1 billion in 2025.
Headline inflation has fallen from the double-digit spikes of 2024 and food inflation has slowed to levels not seen in over a decade. Those indicators do back the APC’s claim of measurable macro gains since the policy shift.
The APC also cites GDP momentum. Official series show modest acceleration in late 2025 with fourth quarter growth improved on the prior year. Exact rates vary by source and timing, but the trend is recovery rather than collapse.
Where the defence falls short
The APC dismisses the 63 per cent figure as ignorance or politicisation. That response sidesteps the core empirical point. Removing a costly subsidy quickly has immediate distributional effects.
The Agora study suggested poverty rose from about 49 to 63 per cent after the subsidy was removed. Whether you blame policy choices, global price shocks, currency moves or changes in measurement, the spike signals a real worsening of household welfare for many Nigerians.
Ignoring that number does nothing to reduce its political or human weight.
The party also claims savings once lost to subsidies are now funding health, education and infrastructure. While budget reallocations appear on paper, auditing the pace, targeting and absorptive capacity of those investments is still incomplete.
Bold claims about transformed service delivery need matching evidence at the state and local level to be fully convincing.
Why social protection and design matter
The statement lists social programmes — cash transfers, student loans, the CNG roll-out and other measures. The crucial investigative question is delivery.
Rapidly scaled cash transfers matter far more than promises. Independent monitoring shows pockets of good practice alongside gaps in coverage and timing. When reforms bite quickly and relief lags, political backlash is predictable.
The APC’s argument would carry more weight if it came with verifiable, time-stamped data on who has received help and what the impact has been.
Political theatre and messaging
Morka’s tone is unapologetically partisan. He paints the ADC as agents of “cheap politicisation” and as “power mongering leaders.” That rhetoric aims to blunt opposition traction. But spin cannot erase empirical unease.
Opposition parties have built a plausible case by linking economic pain to policy choices. The ruling party faces a simple paradox: reforms that stabilise macroeconomics will only win lasting public support if their social costs are visibly and swiftly mitigated.
What the data says about trade-offs
Macro indicators show progress. Reserves above $50 billion bolster external buffers. Non-oil exports near $6.1 billion in 2025 point to emerging diversification.
Headline and food inflation readings have eased, giving monetary authorities room to manoeuvre. But poverty and unemployment remain lagging social indicators that need dedicated, transparent policy responses well beyond fiscal rhetoric.
Nuts and bolts for policymakers
Publish rapid impact assessments linking freed fiscal space to specific projects and beneficiaries. Scale transparent, targeted cash transfers with public dashboards and independent audits.
Prioritise rural and smallholder agricultural support to secure food access even as food inflation falls. Use part of export gains to back credit lines for small exporters and local manufacturers so export growth is broad based.
Conclusion
The APC statement is a firm political defence of a difficult economic pivot. It rests on verifiable macro gains but is short on granular evidence that those gains have quickly and fairly reached ordinary Nigerians.
The Agora study that produced the 63 per cent figure raised a legitimate alarm about the short-term social costs of reform.
For the government, the route to durable political credit runs through rapid, transparent social protection and clear local development wins.
For the opposition, the challenge is to turn critique into concrete policy alternatives that speak to people living with daily hardship.
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