In a bold play for Africa’s largest gas market, TotalEnergies is advancing two flagship gas‐field projects—Ubeta on OML 58 and IMA on OML 112/117—that together promise a plateau capacity of 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).
Country Chair Matthieu Bouyer announced at NOG Energy Week 2025 that first gas from Ubeta is slated for 2027, while a Final Investment Decision (FID) on IMA is expected in 2026.
If delivered on time and budget, these fields could supply enough feedstock to power Nigeria’s factories, stabilise its electricity grid and slash flaring emissions.
Yet past project delays, regulatory wrangling and local content shortfalls raise critical questions: can Nigeria finally translate gas abundance into economic transformation, or are these glossy projections destined to fizzle?
Nigeria’s Gas—A Sleeping Giant Awakes
Historical Production Trends
Over the last decade, Nigeria’s natural gas production has fluctuated between 42 bcm and 52 bcm annually (2015–2023), reflecting both investment cycles and infrastructure constraints.
After dipping to 42.6 bcm in 2016, production peaked at 52.4 bcm in 2021 before sliding back to 43.7 bcm in 2023.
This volatility underscores chronic pipeline leaks, limited domestic processing capacity and regulatory uncertainty.
Domestic Utilisation vs Export Pressures
Despite being the continent’s leading gas producer, Nigeria has persistently under‑utilised its own resources.
In 2023, only 30% of produced gas was consumed locally—mainly for power generation—while the remainder was either exported as LNG or flared offshore.
The government’s Decade of Gas policy aims to shift that balance to 70% domestic utilisation by 2030, catalysing industries from cement to fertiliser. Ubeta and IMA are central to that pivot.
The Ubeta Project (OML 58)
Project Overview
- Location: Onshore OML 58, Rivers State
- Operator: TotalEnergies (Operator, 34%), joint‑venture partners include NNPC (55%) and NAOC (11%)
- Phase: Execution, with EPC contracts awarded in Q1 2025
- CAPEX Estimate: US\$2.5 bn
- Plateau Output: 70,000 boepd (gas + condensate)
- First Gas Target: Q4 2027
Technical & Commercial Risks
Geotechnical Complexity: Recent well tests at Ubeta‑3 revealed higher water‐cut than initial appraisals, potentially diluting condensate yields by up to 10%.
Local Content Compliance: TotalEnergies must meet Nigeria’s 15% deep‐water local content threshold even in onshore projects, pressuring timelines and budgets.
Regulatory Delays: Protracted Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) and pipeline right‐of‐way negotiations risk slipping first‑gas into 2028.
Strategic Upside
Condensate Margin: With condensate trading at US\$75–80 per barrel, Ubeta’s liquid stream could generate US\$180 m in annual incremental revenues.
Power Supply Linkages: Under a binding Heads of Agreement with the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), Ubeta will feed a dedicated 300 MW gas‐to‐power plant, alleviating Lagos grid shortages.
The IMA Project (OML 112/117)
Project Overview
- Location: Offshore OML 112 & 117, Gulf of Guinea (15 km from shore)
- Operator: AMNI International Petroleum Development Company (35%) in JV with TotalEnergies Nigeria (35%), NNPC (30%)
- Phase: Front End Engineering Design (FEED), targeting FID by end‑2026
- CAPEX Estimate: US\$3 bn
- Plateau Output: 70,000 boepd of gas
Offshore Complexities
Deepwater Drilling Costs: At US\$25 m per well, budget overruns of 10–15% are typical in the Gulf of Guinea.
Supply Chain Bottlenecks: Global rig shortages and longer lead times for subsea equipment could force schedule renegotiations.
Collaborative Advantages
AMNI–Total Synergies: AMNI’s 2023 Ntokon discovery on adjacent acreage positions the JV for clustered development, potentially saving US\$500 m in facilities sharing.
NNPC Backing: NNPC’s equity stake and tolling commitment for associated gas compress project economics, ensuring higher returns even if Brent dips below US\$65 per barrel.
Government & Regulator Roles
NUPRC’s Acceleration Mandate
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has introduced an Expedited Decision Framework for strategic projects, promising approvals within 180 days.
Ubeta benefited from this fast‑track, while IMA is now in the queue for its own milestone sign‑off.
NNPC Limited Partnership
By converting its legacy JV obligations into corporate equity via NNPC Ltd., the federal oil company is aligning more closely with private operators.
For Ubeta and IMA, this means streamlined payment terms and joint methane‑leak detection programmes.
Sustainability & Emissions Control
Methane Detection via AUSEA
TotalEnergies has deployed drone‑mounted Airborne Ultralight Spectrometer for Environmental Applications (AUSEA) to map methane hotspots across OML 58, a first in Nigerian upstream operations.
Early data indicate a 30% reduction in unaccounted‑for gas within six months of survey deployment.
Flaring Reduction Targets
Under the World Bank’s Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative, Nigeria must cut routine flares by 80% by 2025.
Ubeta’s integrated gas gathering system is designed to capture 95% of associated gas, compared to national averages of 60%.
Comparative Historical Perspective
1990s Gas Projects: The Escravos gas project (1991) took seven years from discovery to first gas. By contrast, Ubeta aims to achieve that in under five years—a sign of improved project execution capacity.
Pipeline Network Growth: Since 2000, Nigeria’s gas trunkline network has expanded from 1,200 km to over 4,500 km today, yet utilisation remains below 50%—highlighting persistent infrastructure underuse.
Economic & Industrial Impacts
Manufacturing & Cement
An incremental 140,000 boepd could supply 2,000 MW of extra power, enough to restart shuttered cement plants in Lafarge, Dangote and BUA facilities.
Fertiliser & Petrochemicals
National Fertiliser Company of Nigeria (NAFCON) projects a 30% shortfall in ammonia feedstock; new gas volumes from Ubeta/IMA could meet that gap and catalyse down‑stream petrochemical clusters.
Counterarguments & Risks
Political Instability: Elections due in 2027 may shift energy policy priorities.
Security Threats: Militant groups in the Niger Delta have historically targeted flowlines; enhanced drones help, but on‑the‑ground risk remains high.
Global Gas Glut: LNG oversupply in Europe and Asia could depress prices, squeezing project returns.
Expert Voices
“If TotalEnergies delivers on time, Nigeria will finally unlock the industrial benefits of its gas reserves,”
— Dr. Adewale Adegoke, Energy Policy Analyst, University of Lagos“The methane‑detection programme represents a leap forward for environmental compliance,”
— Emeka Nwafor, Director, Centre for Petroleum Research
Conclusions & Outlook
TotalEnergies’ twin‑project strategy embodies both opportunity and peril. On one hand, 140,000 boepd of fresh gas capacity—backed by advanced methane‑control technology and government support—could transform Nigeria’s power grid, industrial output and environmental footprint.
On the other, technical delays, security challenges and political shifts threaten to derail ambitions.
The next 18 months will be critical: Ubeta’s execution phase must stay on schedule, IMA must clear FID hurdles, and regulatory bodies must uphold expedited timelines.
For Nigeria’s energy security to shift from promise to practice, stakeholders—from NUPRC and NNPC to TotalEnergies and local communities—must navigate this high‑stakes gauntlet with precision.
