Nigeria’s political landscape is convulsing under the force of what insiders dub “Hurricane Tinubu”, as the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) brazenly announces plans to court five more governors into its fold.
In an exclusive with The PUNCH, APC National Vice‑Chair (South‑East) Dr Ijeoma Arodiogbu declared that Bayelsa, Rivers, Plateau, Kano and either Abia or Enugu governors would formally defect within two months, signalling a near‑total collapse of credible opposition ahead of President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 re‑election bid.
The spate of defections has already rattled the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), which only five years ago boasted control of 13 and one states respectively.
As of 6 June 2025, the APC holds 23 out of 36 governorship slots, giving it an unrivalled incumbency advantage when marshalled through the Progressive Governors’ Forum and its alignment with Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope” agenda.
Such dominance not only undermines federalism’s balance but also threatens to convert Sukuk‑style horse‑trading into outright electoral hegemony.
The immediate catalyst was the resignation of former APC National Chairman Dr Abdullahi Ganduje last Friday, creating a leadership vacuum that Tinubu’s lieutenants have exploited to cement loyalty through patronage and political inducements.
This high‑stakes manoeuvre follows the dramatic defection of Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Eno in April, along with the entire PDP legislature in the state, marking one of the largest political realignments since the APC’s 2013 foundation, when five sitting PDP governors defected en masse to the then‑new party.
Delta’s seismic tremor came when Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and ex‑Vice‑Presidential candidate Ifeanyi Okowa mobilised federal and state lawmakers to APC in April, in a coup that stunned Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi’s embryonic mega‑coalition talks.
Yet, for all the drama, Arodiogbu dismisses any opposition alliance as a “media stunt”, insisting Nigerians prefer a party that delivers tangible “Renewed Hope” projects over headline‑hungry politicking.
In the South-South, the battle for Bayelsa Governor Douye Diri is especially emblematic. Yesterday, Bayelsa PDP lawmakers overwhelmingly endorsed Diri’s shift to APC, signalling that tribal loyalty and state‑level power may trump national party ideology.
Should Rivers Governor Siminalayi Fubara and Plateau Governor Caleb Mutfwang follow suit—both presiding over states with over 2.7 million and 2.8 million registered voters respectively—the APC would not only secure critical South‑South support but also punch above its weight in the geopolitical calculus of 2027.
This avalanche of defections recalls the APC’s early‑days strategy in November 2013, when Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano) and others from PDP bolstered the nascent party, ultimately paving the way for the 2015 presidential victory.
But history also warns that such top‑down realignments breed resentment among grassroots stakeholders, undermining internal cohesion and risking backlash if projects stall.
Anambra’s Charles Soludo has also hedged his bets, publicly endorsing Tinubu’s second‑term bid despite leading the rival APGA.
Yet Arodiogbu derides Soludo’s relevance, citing two years of feuds with traditional rulers, church bodies and market unions as proof of his dwindling grassroots appeal.
Instead, APC is fielding Nicholas Ukachukwu—whose electoral pedigree predates Soludo’s entry into politics—as its standard‑bearer for 2027, underscoring the party’s preference for loyalists over mavericks.
Osun remains the wild card. Governor Ademola Adeleke’s possible crossover is hampered by resistance from sitting APC heavyweights, notably former Governor Gboyega Oyetola and National Secretary Ajibola Basiru, both eyeing the 2026 ticket.
Basiru dismisses Adeleke’s flirtation as speculative, highlighting internal party friction that could blunt Tinubu’s momentum in the South‑West.
Critically, this governor‑grab tactic may backfire. While defections bolster APC’s numerical advantage, they risk turning multifarious regional interests into a fractious conglomerate, liable to seize on unmet promises.
Moreover, the optics of political opportunism—substituting ideology with patronage—could fuel cynicism among Nigeria’s youth, who constitute over 60 percent of the electorate, and erode democratic legitimacy in the long term.
As “Hurricane Tinubu” gathers force, the question for Nigerians is whether this tempest will deliver genuine renewal or simply entrench a transactional ruling class.
With APC now controlling nearly two‑thirds of Nigeria’s governors and cowing opposition strongmen, the 2027 election may well be decided not at the ballot box, but in clandestine courtyards where loyalty is bought—and dissent is drowned under the roar of seismic defections.
