Governor Douye Diri on 13 November 2025 laid before the Bayelsa State House of Assembly an ambitious N998,371,313,943.04 appropriation for 2026, styling it the “Budget of Assured Prosperity II”.
The headline figures show a sharp expansion in fiscal ambition after recent years, with capital expenditure accounting for roughly 64.6 per cent of the total and recurrent charges the remaining 35.4 per cent.
At face value the numbers are striking. The proposed capital envelope of N645.2bn dwarfs routine running costs. It signals that the administration intends to accelerate heavy projects. These include principally road networks, an ultra-modern civil servants secretariat, and a volley of other infrastructure works that Governor Diri cited in his speech to the assembly.
The Works and Infrastructure Ministry receives the lion’s share at about N298.6bn while the Education allocation is N75.1bn, Health N39.7bn, Sports N46.5bn and a dedicated N10.8bn is budgeted specifically for pipe-borne water.
The proposal leans heavily on FAAC receipts and the 13 per cent derivation to make the numbers add up. Projected receipts listed by the governor include statutory allocation N42.2bn, Value Added Tax N84bn and a derivation receipt of N212.6bn, with other FAAC allocations bringing the FAAC-related total to about N488bn.
Internally generated revenue (IGR) is projected at N85.9bn, grants N24.9bn and a domestic loan line of N50bn is pencilled in to finance the gap.
These assumptions justify close scrutiny. This is because of the volatility of oil revenue. There are also well documented year-to-year swings in FAAC and derivation flows to oil producing states.
Context is essential. The 2026 proposal shows a roughly 42.7 per cent leap over the state’s 2025 approved budget of about N699.57bn — itself a significant instrument that Governor Diri signed into law late in 2024.
That scale of increase, within a single fiscal year, demands realism in revenue forecasting. It also requires robust project delivery timelines.
Bayelsa’s revenue performance has shown signs of improvement but remains lumpy. The administration has reported improved IGR months in 2025, with single month tranches reported at N4.2bn, and official quarterly reports show uneven FAAC receipts against budget targets.
Year-over-year variance matters greatly. This is because the 2026 blueprint assumes steady FAAC inflows. It also expects a continuation of stronger derivation receipts. This trend was seen in 2025 when derivation transfers to oil producing states rose sharply.
If oil receipts fall back, the fiscal plan’s reliance on derivation and FAAC could expose the state to funding shortfalls. It could also increase pressure to borrow.
Physical and logistical constraints in Bayelsa should also temper expectations. The state’s riverine and estuarine geography makes road construction and maintenance costlier than in predominantly landlocked states.
Delivering an accelerated roads programme and extensive new civil service infrastructure will thus need careful procurement. Resilient engineering standards are also needed. Additionally, contingency budgeting is necessary for climate and flood risks that often affect the Niger Delta.
On per capita terms the proposed budget is large. Using recent population projections of roughly 2.54 million for Bayelsa, the 2026 proposal equates to about N393,000 per resident. This figure underlines the scale of public resources planned to be mobilised and spent if the estimates hold.
Such arithmetic reinforces why the assembly should demand transparency in major contracts. They should insist on phased delivery plans. There should also be independent value for money checks for these contracts.
Politically, the governor framed the proposal as a continuation of legacy projects. These include three senatorial roads, Glory Drive Phase 3 with a bridge across Epie Creek, Ogu-Akaba-Okodi Road, and several internal roads. He appealed for the assembly’s swift but careful passage.
The Speaker publicly applauded the focus on infrastructure, education and middle level manpower development, signalling legislative cooperation. Yet cooperation must not substitute for rigorous legislative oversight. This is particularly true where large increases in capital spending are involved. The same applies to loan-financed items.
What to watch as the appropriation advances through the House of Assembly.
• Revenue Sensitivity Tests — insist on scenario analyses. These analyses should show budgets under lower FAAC and derivation receipts.
• Debt Implications — clarify terms and uses for the N50bn domestic loan. Also, specify any contingent liabilities from public-private partnerships.
• Procurement Transparency — need public procurement timetables, contractor pre-qualification and milestone-linked releases for major works.
• Water Delivery Plan — demand technical designs, source mapping and delivery timetables for the N10.8bn pipe-borne water allocation to avoid yet another unfulfilled promise.
In conclusion, Governor Diri’s N998.37bn budget for 2026 is bold in scale. It is heavy on capital projects. If executed, these projects will materially alter Bayelsa’s infrastructure stock. The plan sits on plausible but not guaranteed assumptions about FAAC and derivation receipts.
For Bayelsa’s citizens to reap the promised benefits, the House of Assembly and civil society must trade applause for accountability. They must insist that the Budget of Assured Prosperity II come with rigorous fiscal stress tests. There should be transparent procurement and a clear line of sight from appropriation to visible, maintained assets.
Additional reporting by Taiwo Adebowale, Senior Business Correspondent.
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