The unexpected demise of former President Muhammadu Buhari in in July 2025 has sent seismic tremors through Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
What was once a monolithic party now faces the spectre of a powerful faction—Buhari’s own Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) loyalists—breaking away.
Analysts estimate this bloc comprises over 12 million supporters with a cult‑like allegiance to the late leader, dwarfing the margin of any current political momentum within APC ranks.
As the 2027 general election looms, the defection of such numbers could prove catastrophic for President Bola Tinubu’s bid for a second term.
This investigation peels back the layers of loyalty, grievance and ambition to expose a brewing insurgency that may redefine Nigerian politics.
The Rise and Fall of the CPC
Founded by Buhari in 2009, the CPC emerged as a formidable opposition force, harnessing northern disaffection with Muhammadu Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s PDP government.
By 2011, it had captured nearly ten northern states and commanded a passionate grassroots following.
In 2013, CPC merged with three parties to form the APC—an alliance that propelled Buhari to victory in 2015 and 2019. Yet the CPC identity never fully dissolved; its regional networks continued operating semi-independently within APC structures.
Since Tinubu’s ascension in 2023, CPC veterans have complained of marginalisation, pointing to sidelined appointments and policy divergences that inflamed old rivalries.
Buhari’s Cult‑Like Followership
With Buhari’s passing, the CPC’s latent cohesion has burst into view. Conservative estimates place the bloc at 12 million strong—nearly one‑fifth of APC’s total membership rolls.
This cohort spans local government chairmen, traditional rulers and grassroots organisers who credit Buhari with restoring northern dignity and championing anti‑corruption.
“He was their standard‑bearer, the one name that guaranteed victory from Sokoto to Maiduguri,” reflects a retired security chief.
Such emotional loyalty, analysts warn, may not survive Tinubu’s more technocratic approach, which emphasises economic reforms over populist appeals.
ADC Courts the Disaffected
Sensing opportunity, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has moved swiftly to woo CPC defectors.
ADC interim National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi boasts that “most of the Buhari loyalists are already with us,” citing high‑profile names such as Babachir Lawal, Abubakar Malami and Nasir El‑Rufai as proof of momentum.
He contends that the coalition now encapsulates the “entire North,” and that Buhari himself favoured a realignment before his death.
By positioning itself as the true heir to Buhari’s ideals, the ADC aims to inherit not only supporters but also vital electoral machinery at the ward level.
General Abdulsalami’s Prognosis
Former Head of State General Abdulsalami Abubakar offered a rare endorsement of this shift, predicting that Buhari’s death “will certainly change” Nigerian politics—and hopefully “for the better.”
His remarks, aired on national television, validate the ADC’s narrative of renewal and contrast sharply with the APC’s defensive posture.
Abdulsalami’s stature endows him with moral authority among the military‑influenced northern elite, further bolstering the ADC’s credibility.
APC’s Pushback: “No Vacuum, Only Sobriety”
APC Director of Publicity Bala Ibrahim vehemently rejects defection rumours. “Buhari’s loyalists will not support ADC; they share our ideology,” he insists.
While conceding that the late president’s absence creates a “vacuum,” Ibrahim reframes it as an impetus for introspection rather than disintegration.
He details plans for a national reconciliation summit in Kano, pledging to “mend grievances” through fresh party primaries and inclusive appointments.
Yet insiders question whether such measures can repair a breach that predates Buhari’s departure and stems from deep‑seated factionalism.
CPC Veterans Holding the Line
Despite pressure from ADC, many CPC stalwarts remain in APC. Senator Tanko Al‑Makura, Katsina Governor Dikko Radda and former SGF Babachir Lawal all assert loyalty to Tinubu, pointing to the party’s continued dominance in federal appointments.
Even Adebayo Shittu, a long‑time CPC minister, denies imminent defection: “I’m running for Oyo governor on the APC platform in 2027,” he declares. Yet Shittu’s defiance rings hollow among grassroots operatives who attest to mass frustration over perceived betrayals of Buhari’s ethos.
Arewa Leaders Divided
Opinion among northern opinion‑shapers is sharply split. Anthony Sani, ex‑Secretary‑General of the Arewa Consultative Forum, downplays the impact:
“Most will remain in APC; they owe their rise to Buhari under this roof.”
In contrast, Yerima Shettima, President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum, cautions of a looming power vacuum:
“Managing Buhari’s legacy will decide if APC rallies or unravels.”
Shettima warns that failure to address existential grievances—especially youth unemployment and security woes—could drive even staunch loyalists into ADC’s embrace.
Historical Parallels: From SDP to ANPP
Nigeria’s political annals bear witness to similar fissures. In 1998, the SDP’s dissolution spawned multiple splinter groups, diluting the northern vote and handing victory to southern coalitions.
Likewise, the ANPP’s fragmentation in 2013 nearly cost the APC its competitive edge. Each schism underscores the peril of neglecting regional sensibilities and loyalty-driven factions.
ADC strategists hope to replicate these lessons, calibrating their outreach to ward‑level networks abandoned by an APC focused on Lagos and Abuja elites.
Implications for 2027 and Beyond
Should even 30 per cent of the CPC bloc defect, Tinubu’s second‑term ambitions face an existential crisis.
The North accounts for roughly 40 per cent of Nigeria’s electorate; a divided northern vote could deliver control of the National Assembly to the opposition, stymieing legislative agendas.
Further, the ADC harbours designs on key governorships—Katsina, Plateau and Kaduna—where Buhari’s imprint remains strongest.
A successful insurgency may redraw Nigeria’s political map, compelling APC to negotiate power‑sharing deals alien to its founding vision.
Conclusion: A Party at a Crossroads
The late President Buhari’s legacy—once a unifying banner—has become a litmus test for Nigeria’s ruling party.
As CPC loyalists weigh loyalty against ideology, the ADC’s overtures and the APC’s countermeasures will determine not only the 2027 outcome but the very trajectory of Nigerian democracy.
If Tinubu’s administration fails to reconcile with the grassroots that once vaulted Buhari to power, it risks ceding the North to a coalition born of grief, ambition and an unwavering devotion to a departed icon.
In politics, as in life, legacies live on only when nurtured; otherwise they become ghosts that haunt the living.
