The Central Bank of Nigeria released $1.259 billion in foreign exchange to oil sector players for petrol and related import transactions in the first quarter of 2025. This underscores the persistence of fuel importation even as the Dangote refinery ramps up output.
The funds covered import licences and payments between January and March and were disbursed in three uneven tranches $457.83 million in January, $283.54 million in February and $517.55 million in March. This was according to data reported from the CBN’s quarterly statistics and industry sources.
Despite the higher local refining capacity delivered by the privately owned Dangote refinery, petroleum marketers still imported an estimated 2.28 billion litres of petrol during those three months.
That import figure formed part of a much larger pattern. Fresh NMDPRA data showed that marketers supplied roughly 69 per cent of the petrol consumed in Nigeria. The total consumption was 21 billion litres between August 2024 and 10 October 2025.
This amount is equivalent to about 15.01 billion litres. Those numbers illustrate a downstream market that is changing shape but not yet dominated by domestic refining.
Monthly volumes make the point. NMDPRA data cited in the industry brief show January imports at about 724.5 million litres, February at 760.0 million litres and March at 803.7 million litres.
The quarterly total is among the lower import rounds seen in recent years. Nonetheless, it still signifies a material draw on foreign exchange. The CBN’s allocated forex for those imports thus remains a sensitive item for reserves management and for exchange rate stability.
Why imports persist
Market economics explains much. Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria spokesperson Chinedu Ukadike told reporters that marketers prioritise price and margin over source. This is a pragmatic comment from operators who work on thin retail margins.
If the imported product is cheaper at a point in time, marketers will buy it. They will switch if Dangote or local blends offer a cost advantage. That price sensitivity is driven by global crude prices, freight costs, the naira exchange rate, and landing costs. It remains the primary behavioural driver in the downstream market.
The arrival of the Dangote refinery changed the supply equation but not overnight market incentives. The 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote complex has moved Nigeria from near-total import dependence. Now, a large private refiner supplies local demand. Exporters and traders continue to move cargoes abroad.
In September 2025, Reuters reported that Dangote gasoline had been sold into the US market. This was a sign that product meeting specifications is now flowing out as well as in.
It also indicates international commercial logic is at play. That export activity confirms that the refinery is operating at volumes enough to feed both domestic and international customers.
Comparative context
Nigeria’s import profile has shifted from the extreme peaks of the recent past. NEITI and NBS records show the country imported 23.54 billion litres of PMS in 2022, the highest recorded, falling to about 20.30 billion litres in 2023 and trending down as local refining capacity returns to the network.
The 2.28 billion litres imported in Q1 2025 thus shows progress but not yet a structural substitution. In other words, the country is moving from 23bn+ annual import volumes towards a lower but still significant import footprint.
Macro and policy implications
Fuel importation remains a major item of foreign exchange demand. Even a reduced quarterly draw of $1.26bn matters to reserves, particularly when gross external reserves and the naira’s stability are priorities for monetary policymakers.
The CBN’s decisions on FX allocation hence sit at the intersection of commercial freedom, reserve management and industrial policy.
Policy options that deserve urgent, realistic attention include:
• Transparent landing cost reporting and a clear import parity framework to reduce arbitrage and uncertainty at the retail level.
• Incentives for offtake contracts exist between domestic refineries and marketers. These incentives are conditional, time-bound, and price-indexed. This structure helps marketers plan and negotiate effectively.
• Gradual fiscal and regulatory measures to encourage local uptake without sudden dislocations that would raise consumer prices sharply.
These measures would reduce speculative import cycles and improve predictability for wallets and balance-of-payments managers.
Pricing and consumer impact
The latest industry energy bulletin indicates a reduction in the estimated import parity price for PMS. The price has fallen to approximately N805. Marketers have cited this bulletin. The decline is reflected in the spot rate.
That landing cost estimate, along with freight and distribution, informs the retail expectation. This explains why marketers switch sources when price gaps. Until the landed cost of locally refined product is consistently cheaper than imported cargos, import demand will continue. It remains an economic choice.
In conclusion, Q1 2025’s $1.259bn of FX for petrol imports is both a symptom and a signal. It signals a market in transition. Local refining capacity now exists at scale. Still, commercial and currency dynamics continue to make imports attractive at times.
For policy makers, the task is to tilt incentives. They need to reduce macroeconomic friction. This way, the commercial logic increasingly favours local content. For marketers the immediate reality is simple. Survival comes before sentiment. For consumers the hope is that competition, not protectionism, drives cheaper, reliable supply.
