BUA Boss Predicts Naira Strength to ₦1,400 by Year End

BUA Boss Predicts Naira Will Strengthen to ₦1,400 by Year End — Bold Claim That Demands Scrutiny

BUA chairman Abdulsamad Rabiu predicts naira will firm to ₦1,300–₦1,400 by year end. We examine the data policy risks and who stands to gain.

Atlantic Post

September 25, 2025

4–6 minutes

Abdulsamad Rabiu, BUA Group, Central Bank of Nigeria, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Naira, Nigerian Economy, Tinubu Reforms

ABUJA, Nigeria — Abdulsamad Rabiu, the chairman of BUA Group, has told journalists after a meeting with President Bola Tinubu at the Presidential Villa that he expects the naira to firm to between ₦1,300 and ₦1,400 to the dollar before the end of the year.

Rabiu praised what he called President Tinubu’s “bold and decisive” economic reforms and said businesses were already feeling the benefit.

At face value the forecast reads as cause for celebration. Yet the claim deserves forensic examination. The naira has indeed shown signs of stabilisation this year, helped by a combination of policy changes, higher official yields on local assets and improving foreign inflows.

The Central Bank of Nigeria cut its policy rate in late September 2025 for the first time since 2020, citing easing inflation and the need to nudge growth, a move markets viewed as a signal of confidence.

Headline inflation has been trending down in 2025 with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting 20.12 per cent in August.

Even so Rabiu’s target implies a marked appreciation from the levels many Nigerians are living with today. As of the most recent market checks the CBN sell price hovered around ₦1,487 while parallel and peer to peer channels quoted rates north of ₦1,500 to the dollar.

A move to ₦1,300 or ₦1,400 would represent a swing of roughly 8 to 13 per cent or more depending on which prevailing market rate is used. That is a substantial correction over a short period.

A few facts explain why an influential industrialist like Rabiu might make such a bullish forecast.

First, the government’s 2023 decision effectively to let the naira float and to unify fragmented FX windows removed large distortions that had hamstrung corporate access to dollars. The unification, and subsequent transparency measures, have reduced the bureaucratic need for firms to lobby for FX allocations and cut out the previous wedge between official and parallel markets.

Rabiu himself has said that businesses now source FX through international banking channels and credit cards and that the old system created artificial scarcity.

Second, corporate Nigeria is sitting on heavy dollar connected earnings, and attractive local yields have drawn foreign portfolio flows. The CBN’s recent decision to lower the cash reserve ratio and trim the policy rate is designed to free up liquidity and lower borrowing costs, a move that could further stimulate investment and ease FX demand pressures.

But there are countervailing risks that make a deterministic prediction hazardous. Nigeria’s external buffers remain vulnerable. Oil revenues still matter. Global commodity price shocks, an abrupt reversal in portfolio flows, or a sudden widening of the current account deficit could quickly blow a hole in any nascent stability.

Political fractures and governance failures that erode investor confidence are also perennial tail risks. History offers plenty of caution. The naira has moved violently in the past when confidence faltered or when official policy produced unintended scarcity.

There is also a credibility question when leading industrialists publicly endorse government policy after private meetings with the president. Rabiu’s praise for Tinubu and the CBN reads as both a market view and as a political signal. BUA is a conglomerate with large import and export footprints in cement sugar edible oils and other commodities. A stronger naira is beneficial for some parts of the economy and adverse for others.

Public endorsements from business titans may reflect genuine optimism. They may equally reflect strategic positioning or an attempt to nudge policy. Good journalism must treat both possibilities as live. A healthy scepticism about the motives of powerful actors is necessary.

The data points cited in Rabiu’s commentary on inflation also deserve inspection. Food inflation remains elevated despite recent declines in headline inflation. The NBS reported food inflation in August 2025 at about 21.9 per cent.

For ordinary households even modest month on month gains in staple prices are felt immediately. The statistical easing of inflation and positive base effects do not always translate quickly into relief at the market stall. That lag complicates claims that commodity prices have broadly fallen for everyone.

From a policy perspective the path to a firmer naira is not simply technical. It requires sustained external balance improvements credible macro management and the maintenance of investor confidence.

The CBN’s recent rate cut signals the start of a possible normalisation cycle. But cutting rates too aggressively while foreign buffers remain shallow risks inviting renewed depreciation. If policymakers lean too far on proclamations of victory they can misread fragile market psychology.

For journalists and readers the immediate test of Rabiu’s claim is empirical and quick to administer. Markets will move and data will arrive. If the naira does firm toward Rabiu’s band then his forecast will be vindicated and the president will enjoy a political dividend. If it does not then observers will be left to ask whether corporate cheerleading had unduly coloured public commentary after access to power. Either outcome matters for policy scrutiny and public trust.

Conclusion. Rabiu’s prediction is provocative and newsworthy. It is rooted in recognisable changes to Nigeria’s FX architecture and in recent disinflationary signs. But it is not a foregone conclusion. Structural vulnerabilities remain and the social reality of food price inflation persists.

The claim is as much a political signal as it is an economic forecast and must be treated accordingly. The public interest requires that the assertion be tracked rigorously and held up to independent verification in the months ahead.