Nigeria’s much‑vaunted N668.34 billion agricultural surplus in Q1 2025 has been hailed as a triumph of agribusiness policy. Yet, as Nigeria slides into the lean season, millions are staring starvation in the face.
The contrast between booming exports and empty tables back home has ignited a fierce debate among economists, policymakers and farmers: does a paper surplus mean anything when wheat, maize and rice rarely reach the poorest Nigerian markets?
A Surplus That Fails to Feed
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for Q1 2025 show agricultural exports outstripped imports by N668.34 billion, propelled by a 10.63 per cent growth in exports to N1.70 trillion and a modest 5.02 per cent drop in imports to N1.04 trillion quarter‑on‑quarter.
But year‑on‑year, imports actually surged 12.52 per cent from N920.54 billion in Q1 2024—undermining claims of true self‑sufficiency.
In real terms, Nigeria spent almost as much on food imports as it earned from exports, signalling deep structural flaws.
Nor is this surplus evenly distributed. The top exports—standard and superior quality cocoa beans (N719.91 bn and N508.27 bn respectively), cashew nuts (N157.63 bn), sesame seeds (N128.18 bn) and cocoa butter (N80.05 bn)—are largely raw commodities destined for Europe and Asia..
Meanwhile, staple grains and tubers that sustain Nigerian households rely on costly imports of durum wheat and soybeans, as local processing capacity remains chronically underfunded.
Hunger’s Silent Advance
Even as export coffers swell, food prices have rebounded precipitously. May 2025 food inflation stood at 21.14 per cent—down only marginally from April, but still more than double the Central Bank’s comfort zone.
For the average Nigerian family, a 20 per cent price hike is not a statistic but a painful reality, eroding meagre incomes and forcing choices between meals and medicine.
The United Nations World Food Programme projects some 33 million Nigerians will face acute food insecurity by August 2025—peak of the lean season—driven by conflict, climate shocks and economic turmoil.
Insecurity in key agricultural states such as Plateau, Benue and Niger has displaced farmers and destroyed harvests, narrowing market supplies and propelling prices even higher.
Agribusiness vs. Food Security
Stakeholders applaud the surge in export earnings but warn it masks a perilous omission: value addition. Tunde Banjoko, Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce & Industry’s Agricultural & Allied Group, laments that “exporting raw materials is easy; building processing plants to turn cornflour into pasta or soy into oil is harder—but that’s where food security truly lies.”
Banjoko argues that Nigeria’s reliance on duty‑free import windows to stabilise markets is a stop‑gap, not a strategy.
The Federal Government’s 150‑day waiver slashed duties on food imports, providing temporary relief but discouraging investment in local mills and factories. And when the waiver ends, markets will be again at the mercy of global price swings and foreign exchange shortages.
The False Comfort of Forex Gains
Agribusinesses driving the surplus are, in part, chasing foreign exchange rather than domestic food needs.
“The ‘rush for forex’ saw prices of cashew spike this year even as cocoa fell, because buyers in Asia sought our raw produce,” Banjoko observes.
Yet that focus on FX earnings often sidelines staples like rice and maize, perpetuating dependency on imports.
Kabir Ibrahim, President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), underscores a further distortion: most agricultural activity remains informal and under‑recorded.
“NBS data overlooks cross‑border trade through porous borders and unrestrained informal markets,” he notes, suggesting the N668 bn figure underestimates true export performance—and true import volumes.
Yet even generous estimates of unrecorded trade cannot erase the fact that subsistence farmers—the backbone of Nigeria’s food system—receive scant support. Irrigation remains limited to riverside plots; credit is scarce; and extension services fail to reach remote communities. Without tackling these grassroots deficiencies, top‑line surpluses will continue to ring hollow.
Food Processing: Nigeria’s Missing Link
Historically, Nigeria’s agricultural policy has favoured export crops—cocoa, palm oil, groundnuts—over staples. Independence era efforts to establish mills foundered under corruption and neglect.
Today, only a fraction of cereals produced domestically is milled locally; the rest is processed overseas.
Reindustrialising food processing would deliver multiple dividends: job creation, stabilised local food prices, and the retention of value within Nigeria’s economy.
Nigeria currently processes less than 10 per cent of its maize internally, relying on external facilities in South Africa and Europe. A concerted plan to build domestic mills, supported by concessional loans and tax incentives, could flip that ratio within five years.
Policy Prescriptions and Political Will
Critics say successive governments have lacked the political will to prioritise food processing. Subsidies favour fertiliser and farm inputs, but rarely feed into factory floors.
Even when processed goods are produced locally, duties on imported substitutes remain low, starving nascent industries of market share.
To break the cycle, experts propose a three‑pronged approach:
- Targeted Incentives: Zero‑duty on imported processing machinery, paired with higher tariffs on foreign‑made processed foods.
- Public‑Private Partnerships: Government equity stakes in agro‑parks and industrial clusters to de‑risk private investment.
- Rural Credit and Extension: Expanded microfinance facilities and revamped extension services to boost yields and input quality.
A Race Against Time
With floods devastating farmlands in Niger State and banditry upending harvests in Plateau, time is running out.
“No nation is ever self‑sufficient,” Banjoko concedes, “but we should not be importing goods we can produce at home”.
Were Nigeria to match exports of raw commodities with exports of value‑added foods, the real surplus would translate into food on Nigerian tables.
However, without a radical shift from raw exports to processed goods, plus targeted support for subsistence farmers, the coming months promise only deeper hunger.
The glory of a N668 bn surplus will ring hollow in dining rooms across Nigeria—unless policy catches up with potently simple economics: feed your people first.
